Bob Howitt Blog

These succinct comments were written in 2019, in part reflecting my interest in the idea of a UBI. Recently, I asked myself “how are the observations below affected by COVID-19” and put my responses in brackets. The setting is the United States.

• DEMOGRAPHICS: There are major differences in median ages among the four major ethnicities. Hence, even though fertility rates of each are comparable to replacement rates, not only will population grow, but more importantly the nation is well on its way to being one of multiple minorities, i.e. no ethnic majority.

Which means: transfer of political power is inevitable. [Figuring the impact of COVID-19 on population, with all due respect to the related fatalities, would revolve around fertility rates; will women of child-bearing age be inclined toward larger or smaller families.]

• A Fact: INCOME and WEALTH DISPARITIES: record levels, with accretion happening daily.

Which means: the current verbal pushback will intensify. [If anything, interest in addressing this issue should rise, given the disparate impact of the virus lockdown.]

• A Fact: FINANCIAL DISPARITIES overlap with ethnicity.

Which means: race is always an issue. [No change there!]

• A Strongly-held (and not unique) Opinion: RACISM is the country’s cancer, with little evidence of remission.

Which means: racism is always relevant. [This is accentuated by COVID-19, as African American and Hispanic deaths from the virus exceed their respective percentages of the population.]

• A Fact: the MIDDLE CLASS earns no more, inflation-adjusted, than a decade ago, is shrinking, is angry, and skews white.

Which means its angst overlaps with every issue above. [COVID-19 “simply” piles on the frustration, particularly as small businesses are crushed by the lockdown.]

• A Fact: Americans have a propensity for individual violence; on average, everybody has a gun.

Which means: frustration + means = highly predictable bad outcomes. [There is no reason to change this viewpoint.]

• A Strongly-held Opinion: Western Europe is not substantially different from the United States in terms of having to struggle with an expected reduced secular rate of economic growth; stress related to the assimilation of an immigrant and refugee population while the native-born population is barely at a replacement rate; and the angst of lessened political stability. [COVID-19 for Western Europe is like throwing a drowning man an anchor!]

Which means: if one American is distraught, he or she can escape to a location elsewhere in the world but if millions are distraught, there is no logical escape. Thus, all the above sources of change and frustration have to be duked out. [Some superficial calmness exists now, when both travel and large gatherings are verboten; later, the underlying situations will become more evident.]

P.S. A must read for those interested in demographics is The Human Tide, by Paul Moreland.

The author weaves a fascinating story about how demographics has been and continues to be central to the evolution of countries and their participation in the world order. Here are a few highlights:

*Sizable population plus industrialization means participation in the arena of political power.

*Population growth is a combination of median age, fertility rate, infant mortality rate, and longevity, plus the net of emigration and immigration.

*Low income, young unemployed populations equal strife. Higher income, older population puts stress on the government social service budget. Shifts in working age to retiree ratio important.

*Rising per capita income, greater education, increased opportunities and independence (including contraceptives and abortions) for women, and urbanization connect to declining fertility rates.

*Future: greyer (multiple countries with advancing age cohorts, greener (more attention to renewable energy), and non-whiter (sub-Sahara Africa has higher fertility rates, even though declining).

*Median ages in the United States:  white, 44; Latino, 28; African American, 33; Asian, 36.

P.P.S. My data points, working backwards through the age spectrum in the United States:

                Above 65, over 75% of the population is white

                In less than 20 years, minorities will constitute over half of the working population

                By 2025, whites and minorities will be equal in terms of the number of high school graduates

                Of today’s newborns, less than 50% are white

Yes, it is a bummer, the likelihood of a Zoom virtual graduation ceremony. Nothing can emotionally replace that magical moment in a traditional ceremony when your name is announced, you walk across the stage, shake hands with whichever college biggie is there for the photo op, and then descend the stairs a somewhat different person.

Four years or more of blood, sweat, and tears, and a whole bunch of money, and the emotional summation is these few seconds in the spotlight when your whole family (who had this date marked on their calendar as soon as it was announced) is going crazy, crying and calling out your name for the world to hear.

But right now, with the Covid-19 lockdown and ban on large group gatherings, it will be a different type of graduation. Time to think of the benefits of a Zoom approach for 2020.

*you can attend in your pajamas instead of dressing up.

*you do not have to rent a graduation cap and gown; instead you save some money.

*you can invite a small number of friends for the ceremony if they can be spaced six feet apart and wear masks, instead of you sitting next to students chosen by some algorithm.

*you can decorate all the masks involved in your celebration instead of being limited to putting a message on your graduation cap.

*you can sit in a comfortable chair instead of those awful folding chairs.

*you can bat a beach ball around freely instead of being reprimanded.

*you can enjoy the absence of a verbose invited speaker instead of being completely bored.

*you can eat home-cooked food instead of being in a long line at a nearby restaurant.

*you can quickly “walk”—into your living room, instead of having to wait in line to “walk.”

One final note regarding your virtual graduation, do not respond if some killjoy asks what are you going to do now with your diploma and your life. Instead show him or her the door!

Background: to state the obvious, different people are reacting to isolation in different ways. An 11 year-old near and dear to my heart said to me, “I am so disappointed in myself; I am starting to curse.” My outlet is writing, whatever comes to mind, even if it is a crazy mixture of satire, realism, and thoughts not representative of what I would like to see happen.

**

Dr. Fauci, the nation’s point guard, has announced that the Chinese virus, aka several other names, may not be so eager to succumb to the warm weather reportedly about to hit the epicenter of New York City. Those aware of the fatal virus situations in, e.g., Colombia and South Africa, might have arrived at a similar conclusion already. He has simultaneously announced that deaths in the immediate future will be much fewer than previously predicted.

(For comparative purposes, the CDC said some 55 million Americans were affected by the winter seasonal flu of 2019-20; 63,000 died. Confirmed Covid 19 cases are 490,000, with 18,000 deaths reported. I believe there is a Professor Singer who has done a lot of work on the value of a human life; if he were to divide $2 trillion by the theoretical number of virus lives saved, his number might be off the charts of any actuarial calculation.)

What the combination of statements from Dr. Fauci means is that success in flattening the fatality curve will be accompanied by a stretching out of the virus’ impact, a plateauing that will persist through the Summer and into the Fall. In the Winter, in the relevant climates, the virus may well be confused with regular flu.

As a consequence, unemployment will not stop at 20%. New mandates (not yet proposed) to have testing done on the premises for every employer of more than 100 people will create a few jobs but not enough to offset drastic and continuing declines elsewhere. People are not going to suddenly head for the airport or the sporting arena or the conference held in a far-off hotel.

Economists in every organization will get the axe for their inability to “model” the virus impact on peoples’ ability to shop and spend; nor do they have a clue as to why most corporations would spend a dime on capital expenditures, except perhaps to further automate their downsized operations.

Prize-winning books published by well-known forecasters and societal modelers  will be pulled from the shelves and deleted from the internet as being not just irrelevant to the new world order (newsflash of no surprise, the European Union has completely come apart) but dangerously misleading.

In response to the chaos, and the screams of all those below the top 10% of reported incomes, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cease printing money to bail out banks, speculators, equity investors, takeover artists, currency traders, bondholders, and other Wall Streeters who have believed there is no moral hazard when the Fed will do anything to make them whole.

NOTE: THE ENSUING PARAGRAPH REPRESENTS A RAY OF LIGHT and therefore is inconsistent with the title of this little essay.

For once, the principle of looking for a relatively simple answer will prevail. Every American will receive a debit card that is good for $1,000 on their particular day of each month; determining the algorithm for this will give a few unemployed geeks something to do. Andrew Yang will lead the effort. Even the super-rich will get this money; the bureaucracy needed to exclude them is not worth it. (On the other hand, this would create jobs, so maybe there is merit to establishing an army of clerks.)

To cash the debit card, an individual must access a bank, which is not a problem as banks now can close their branches (except for the wealthy upper decile, which always needs that personal touch and advice on where in the world to hide their assets) and go completely on-line.

Sculptures will be added (a minor and very specialized job increment here) in the nation’s capitol to commemorate the efforts of Chairman Powell and his colleagues at the Fed for their efforts in early 2020 to hold back the tsunami of economic and societal collapse. The fact that the steps taken were in vain is not germane — more than one Nobel Peace Prize has gone to a non-pacifist.

Because of continuing bans on all human contact by American citizens, food preparation will only be done by people temporarily or illegally in this country. Border patrols will be instructed to provide those who cross into the United States with information on those locales in need of help.

The food itself will be condensed, compressed, and codified for delivery by small drones, the manufacture of which will provide another modest lift to domestic employment. The bulk of drones will continue to come from China despite the implementation of many agreements to keep Chinese influence at a minimum.  Business is business after all.

Admittedly people who prefer something different with their food, e.g. less salt, will suffer. They can either resort to dealing with the growing underground economy or resign themselves to becoming collateral victims of the war to create a new society and be posthumously honored or they can sign up for a Musk flight to Mars.

As companies revisit their supply chain dynamics, particularly the geographic dependency involved, higher domestic inventory levels will ensue, which would be an employment boost except for the inevitable AI/cobot impact. Wall Street analysts will myopically focus on the added costs in this inventory build-up, ignoring the healthcare logic pertinent to the decision, and conclude that long-term earning power of corporate America will decline significantly.

Needless to say, lower earnings and lower confidence in the future – and more recognition that escalating debt at every level of the government and economy is fundamentally a variation of the Ponzi scheme concept — will produce a sharp decline in the stock market, something the Fed and Congress together cannot prevent without third world levels of inflation.

Meanwhile, the principle of social promotion will now govern the world of education. Each and every year for as far as one can see, all students will be deemed one year smarter than the prior year. Those who attempt to use their $1,000 for substantive education will be in violation of the rules, because not everybody will use the money thusly and therefore different people will advance and presumably accrue power over others, not a good thing according to many college professors and New York Times editorial writers.

Maybe people will become better able to conceptualize how a billion people in the world already live on a couple of bucks a day, but they will fight like hell not to remotely approach such deprivation. In truth, most individuals, and the United States does not have an exclusive on this attitude, simply are praying for the virus scare to end so they can return to their prior, profligate way of living.

The underserved, undereducated, underempowered will continue to be screwed. Already they are being disproportionately affected by the virus. Grace periods on paying different bills will be followed by large amount-due notices when creditors believe they have the opportunity to get some of the money owed to them. Eviction notices will similarly re-appear.

Social promotion in education will put those who are already behind even further behind, with negative consequences for long-term economic mobility and their ability to pay current bills. With the Fed already having pumped trillions into the economy, they will have nothing left for those most in need.

Those who hoped that enforced virtual togetherness because of the virus would lead to a calmer, more community-oriented society will be sorely disappointed. Not only will the huge unemployment rate spark serious antagonisms, but all of the above societal and economic factors are taking place during a period of changing demographics and political proposals that stretch tension further.

The inevitable transfer of power, admittedly over an extended period of time, will be ugly to watch. Gun sales will rise, regardless of any politically correct legislation; gold will be accumulated by those who could care less about its inferior long-term rate of return; the suicide rate for middle-aged white men will climb even further; the polarization of the country will be complete.

Reflecting its many and historically atypical challenges, the United States will turn fully inward at the same time as its ethnic diversity should be making it more comfortable dealing with different nations and their non-white populations.

Madmen in real life, of the type already chronicled in novels by best-selling authors, will wonder whether a good ‘ol war would be useful as a way to re-set the social order here and in the affected nations. A terrible idea that has been repeated throughout history.

**

“It can’t happen here” is a wonderful non-analytical, blissfully ignorant sentiment. For sure, the above semi-coherent ramblings cannot be relevant to a locked-down United States in the year 2020. Or can they?

For sure, this country cannot become another chapter in the multi-century opus entitled, “The Rise and Fall of Empires.”  Or can it?

**

In case any student we are helping with respect to their higher education gets the wrong idea, we are completely supportive of their aspirations – and hopeful that some combination of head and heart becomes typical for Generation Z or K or whatever the heck the label is these days!

For a quarter-century, I have been facilitating the pursuit of higher education by young people. To succinctly describe the context, here are some data points: of the several hundred students who have been assisted, an estimated 90% have been Hispanic, probably 95% financially challenged, maybe 10% undocumented or DACA, some 90% first generation, and perhaps 90% with paid jobs in the real world.

All these numbers are from my head as I maximized money invested in students to fulfill their mission and did not devote time, energy, or money on either sophisticated information gathering or data analytics.

Wide reading and lots of experience informed the decision not to spend funds in said directions as nothing learned ever changed my approach, it being as much a lifestyle (mine) as an intellectual decision. Besides, Barnes & Noble and the Internet have more than enough low-priced or free inputs on “mentoring” or “education reform” or “how to help those with thin wallets” or other subjects of similar import.

**

The process of interaction with a young person always began with a quite lengthy first conversation (typically ninety minutes), one-on-one in my small office in the middle of a town which is now predominantly Hispanic. Initially I asked about the jobs and education levels of their parents (both in their home country and in the USA), why they came to this area, their attitudes toward higher education, their feelings about debt, and their understanding of our arcane system of higher education (typically they had surface awareness at best; who can blame them!)

Those queries were simply for extended openers before delving into the complicated thought process of the student. In every conversation, my questions went in the direction indicated by the student’s answers, while simultaneously managing to cover everything I wanted to know. (The information sheet which I used and the complete list of my questions are available at no cost; simply e-mail me at wkbj@att.net.)

Do not ask how the student grantees came to my attention; the answer to the multiple choice question would be “all of the above.” Our marketing/solicitation budget was zero.

Our rejection rate has been close to zero, although a handful of disgruntled students would not say they felt the warmth. Their projected paths were simply too illogical to waste money that should go to others.

While the student was in college, there were periodic e-mails from me (both inquiries as to specific information and my dissertations on various topics), campus visits, and multiple meals (in New Jersey or New York City or wherever the student might be located).

Students realized I was available 24/7 from a communication standpoint, my lack of skill in Spanish being irrelevant. (Perhaps it was offset by my fondness for futbol [including having attended matches in the fabled Camp Nou stadium of Barcelona; my own photo of Messi in action is on my office wall] and my extensive travel in South America.)

My funding per semester was a relatively large amount, the check payable to the student (as an aside, note the current rising interest in non-profit organizations providing money directly and the expanded discussion of the Universal Basic Income concept). I was almost entirely oblivious to other funding sources being accessed by the student and equally (and deliberately) ignorant of whether some of the money was going into the family sugar bowl. 

I have been equally unaware of how tax returns are done by students and their families.

Never was there a connection between the student’s GPA and their grant. My only request was that the student be adamant about graduating.

My life experiences (including Wall Street and homeless shelter volunteering) were shared, I provided recommendations for various educational and specialized scholarship programs, I clipped (not knowing about “links”) and mailed newspaper and magazine articles of interest, gave away relevant (hopefully) books…. and broke bread (I think I mentioned that already). Almost forgot, I sent a birthday card of my own design, attended numerous graduations (that was the outcome goal, correct!) and later, weddings on more than a few occasions.

**

Alumni (students who have been assisted to graduate from college) have realized that there was a continuity of our relationship after graduation, if desired by the individual. For one, it is fun for me to know how people are doing in their real lives; second, such interaction helps me in talking with those who are at earlier stages on their education and career paths; and third, I still like to eat.

I have provided honest and glowing commentaries when requested to be a reference for a prospective employee. Twice I have been interviewed by a Department of Defense investigator about an alumnus involved in a job requiring security clearance.

**

An evaluation of this multi-year effort by myself would conclude (1) it has been hugely successful, (2) it is not scalable and maybe not replicable, (3) it underscores the essentiality of human interaction, (4) it clearly broke some rules established by the businesses known as colleges (no animals were harmed, nor was sleep lost by me!), and (5) it underscored how many high school seniors with the socioeconomic characteristics described above have never had a thorough discussion about possible next steps in their lives.

**

Do not get me started about the country’s underperforming, poorly structured, inappropriately designed education system. The college/university sector specifically should be blown up and reconstituted as a lower cost, lifelong learning collection of credentials that mean something beyond an attractive wall ornament. (Does any college graduate use more than half of what they just spent a fortune regurgitating on tests?)

Do not get me started about the woeful state of guidance counseling, whether at the high school or college level.  The job description is a total misnomer in many cases.

Do not get me started about …. okay, enough, I have a bloodwork appointment later.

Bob Howitt                                                                

P.S. To all grammarians, I probably have slipped with respect to my tenses (or is it my“senses!”) as my foundation is technically finished but my modus operandi lives on as I move closer to my goal of dying broke.

P.P.S. In case my kvetching obscures this fact: I am IMMENSELY PROUD of the accomplishments of all those individuals I have helped along the way.

Back Story: Yes, one does exist. It consists of bumping around in multiple situations (including being self-unemployed for three years, after I was fired by a guy who years later murdered his wife) before landing at a 18-year gig, which included becoming a partner of a respected Wall Street money management and institutional research firm.

A multi-year stint as a homeless volunteer in New York City (culminating in an unpublished manuscript, “Eighteen Months in the Basement”) took place in the final stages of my life on Wall Street. This experience was one of several factors that led to a desire for a big change. I was drafted by the Board of Directors to be the interim Executive-Director of the well-known New York City youth agency with the quaint name, The Door. With specialized help from an uber-aggressive director named Jacki Slater, the program was saved from bankruptcy and tears were shed at my going away party.

Then came day one of what the opening verbiage describes.

A Given: DEMOGRAPHICS: Rising non-white population; nation as one of multiple minorities

                Which means: transfer of power is inevitable.

A Fact: INCOME and WEALTH DISPARITIES: record levels, with accretion happening daily

                Which means: the current verbal pushback will intensify.

A Fact: FINANCIAL DISPARITIES overlap with ethnicity

                Which means: race is always an issue.

A Strongly-held Opinion: RACISM is the country’s cancer, with little evidence of remission

                Which means: race is always an issue.

A Fact: the MIDDLE CLASS is earning no more than a decade ago, is shrinking, is angry, and skews white

                Which means its frustration overlaps with every issue above.

A Strongly-held Opinion by many financial professionals: the Federal Reserve, during the decade-long economic upturn from the 2007-08 debacle, has already taken all the pump-priming financial steps necessary to address a recession; what tools remain then is the open question.

                Which means: there could be fragility to asset values even if an actual recession is not severe.

A Fact: America leads in the propensity for individual violence, and, on average,  everybody has a gun.

                Which means: frustration + means = highly predictable bad outcomes.

A Strongly-held Opinion: Western Europe is not substantially different from the United States in terms of having to struggle with an expected reduced secular rate of economic growth; stress related to the assimilation of an immigrant and refugee population while the native-born population is barely at a replacement rate; and the angst of lessened political stability.

         Which means: if one American is distraught, he or she can escape to a location elsewhere in the world but if millions are distraught, there is no logical escape. Thus, all the above sources of change and frustration have to be duked out.

http://Bobhowittbooks.com/?page_id=22

Safety is a priority for me, after the accumulation of wealth that is, and I want control of my time as well. My husband Sigmund, whom I met through FindaMate4.me, put in a spy system at our house which gives me a view of everybody who comes to the front door, or the back entrance, or the garage. It completely eliminates worrying about intruders or neighbors who would bother me with trivial questions, useless chatter, and unwanted invitations.

Sigmund is a psychologist; together, we are working on an AI app which would eliminate the need for people to come to his office. You might say we are testing this approach ourselves. We communicate during the day through podcasts, IM, Instagram, Facebook and texts; when we get home, there is no need to talk.

We bought our house without ever seeing it in real life, the same with our car. We provided the specifications, looked at the alternatives, and made our choices. Amazingly efficient, not having to spend time on these mundane tasks.

Our child was designed and selected from a well-regarded sperm bank (LabBabies.me), and we have been pleased with the outcome. I appreciate the app which tells me when she in the back seat. Her questions can be readily answered by Googling. She is so excited when she receives a ribbon for every game regardless of whether she has done anything right for her little soccer team. I am on my phone while she plays, so the noise coming from screaming parents does not affect me.

Knowing that I will not be having my own kids makes it easier to relax when the ScheduledSex.me app tells us it is time to physically combine for a few minutes.

Raising our daughter is easy with the range of apps available; this is a much healthier process than involving my mother, my mother-in-law, and my grandmother. They are good for walking her and her dog on those days when the hired walker is unavailable from DogsWithBorders.me. Same thing with my daughter’s aquarium; they can clean it if the company guy does not show up.

Toys are all approved by the new Facebook.me app, which indicates when something is appropriate. Our daughter had to turn three before she could get her first smartphone.

I know she is safe at school: there are cameras all around the place and guards at every hallway intersection, as well as outside every door, whether locked or not.  My Free Time.me app gives all the information I need to schedule her out-of-school calendar of commitments.  Books are selected and delivered by McGuffy.me.  

My house is cleaned, as is my pool, by somebody I hire. Same with the lawn. They all come from Outsourcingjobs.me. Recently I signed up for a service which buys my clothes, another great time-saver.  I have not set foot in a bank in many years; the thought of waiting in line to complete a transaction with a minimum wage and limited intelligence teller makes me crazy.

The living room has two smart speakers, respectively called CulturalConnections4.me and Consumer God. The former knows everything about my music and other entertainment tastes, while CG, as I call her, orders from Octopus.me every item needed to maintain a house and a family.

My gym class is a must: because of its high-tech apparatus, I am able to stay “on,” not missing any  information which is important to my job. My healthcare app is linked to my data readout at the gym and I am fine, no problems here. I have no time for yoga; that would require deep concentration and get in the way of the incessant demands of my career, which pays me very well thank you.

My 6am breakfast delivery is right on time from CleanApron.me, as is the fellow from AStrangerWhoDrives.me. My laptop clicks to life immediately when the car door closes, without regard to the blueberry muffin crumbs and with nary a glitch in the informational transition from my smartphone, which has never been off since it was purchased.

I am eager for driverless cars actually. What an advantage to have a computer doing the thinking about directions and traffic, so I can focus on work responsibilities and make money.

My job by the way is to use AI to infuse more data understanding into apps, to disrupt conventional human interactions and monetize the resultant process. Everybody knows that when a person has a question not answered on the website and calls a company or a college or the government – or any organization having more than a few employees — he or she has to (a) work their way through a series of prompts, (b) control the inevitable frustration over lost time, and (c) eventually, maybe, talk to a human — who is inevitably incapable of answering a question that is not on their FAQ list. I mean, is anybody pleased with the customer service anywhere! Disruption through universal AI is a must.

In truth, “The more AI, the Better” is our company motto. When connected to CulturalConnections4.me or Consumer God, that is pure Heaven, a much better circumstance than adherence to stories that are literally centuries old.

Politics and religion, immigration, income inequality, foreign policy? I avoid any discussion of these topics; the time and energy drain would get in the way of my career. Besides, with the rate at which Sigmund and I are accumulating wealth, eventually we will be able to set-up a tax-advantaged foundation to address social issues.

As you can readily surmise from the decisions and thought processes I have outlined, I am able to totally focus on my job. The above apps and their usage logic are all about “.me.”

The well-worn phrase is that there are two things you never want to see being made: sausage and laws.  Today, in contrast, there is a phenomenon which begs to be witnessed: how a 24/7 commitment to soul-less technology and minimal human contact in every facet of a person’s life can be seen as unconnected to multiple life-changing negatives: a majority of employees not positively engaged with the companies that pay them, a high incidence of both legal and illegal drug usage, and a suicide rate that is rising for almost every age bracket.

(Yes, the writer does know the difference between correlation and causation.)

Bob Howitt: 9-6-19

A QUESTION … AND AN ANSWER

Should this industry be dismantled, then redefined and restructured?

It is an interesting business: highly fragmented, with well over a thousand entities selling similar products. Marketing to prospective customers is rather unique. It is primarily not done by industry participants; rather it is society in general which has strongly suggested, in multiple ways, that all people of a certain age must, for their own well-being, buy this industry’s product.

Pricing power is triggered initially by this unique demand characteristic; equally important is the ready availability of government monies to assist buyers (through access to considerable amounts of debt) to pay the on- going price of the product.

This combination of favorable induced demand and external funding characteristics means there is minimal need for the industry to care about its cost structure. Moreover, there is little self-analysis because there is a virtual absence of price competition.

Many of the individuals working in the industry are more like independent entrepreneurs than true employees as they have wide leeway in how they provide their services to the customers. Industry personnel often exhibit the soft arrogance of power — slow to return communication from the customer (or no response at all), and an ability to be unembarrassed at not showing up for a meeting with a customer. There is no apparent fear of being reprimanded by a superior.

To be fair, customers have access to those on staff who may recommend different designs within the overall product framework; unfortunately, they do not score highly when customers are asked about their usefulness.

Industry participants almost universally look for add-on revenues, which they obtain either by aggressive direct pricing on ancillary components related to the product or through profitable outsourcing relationships with suppliers of said components.
A large percentage of the industry’s customers apparently are dissatisfied with the product judging from the rate at which there is a complete consummation of the relationship. Meanwhile, the governing boards of these businesses are comprised of extremely important and busy people who are seemingly too self-occupied to hold management accountable for the shortfalls. In addition, those responsible for the flow of public monies to these businesses have been under little pressure to ascertain the effectiveness of this support.

One constant is that the industry’s pricing power facilitates consistent above-average inflation in product cost irrespective of general economic conditions or the number of disappointed customers.

**

With respect to the future of this industry, it is believed that the number of customer prospects for its product is rapidly approaching a peak. In a normal industry, this might be expected to bring a shakeout, with weaker vendors calling it quits, maybe turning over their book of business to a stronger entrant, perhaps converting their vacated buildings into mini-museums or employment retraining centers or community multimedia libraries.

Downsizing is resisted in part because it would require the aforementioned individual entrepreneurs and staffers alike to transfer their talents, undoubtedly at lower levels of wages and benefits, to other, more competitive, types of businesses. Simply cutting published prices to gain market share and drive competition to the sidelines is of questionable utility given the fact that most purchases are not based on list price considerations. Even if some entities were to completely quit, those actions by themselves might do nothing to the modus operandi of those players remaining in the industry.

Given the unexciting outlook for the customer prospect count, it is stunning that many of the players in this industry are adding to their physical plant (often through government endorsed bond issues), either to increase capacity (which can only be profitable through greater market share) or to modernize components which need not be directly connected to the product being sold.

Like every industry, this collection of businesses is also spending significant money to enhance their high-tech capability, without any real evidence that technology per se is key to the product becoming more of a success in the marketplace.

On the brighter side, those industry participants who have accurately sensed an important shift in the composition of their customer prospect base are altering some of their traditional strategies. Their primary initial step is nonetheless conventional: they vigorously reinforce to newbies the societal message that what they sell is something the prospective rookie customers must have.

What they have found in the beginning phase of the unfolding changes in customer composition is that it is difficult to sell a Lincoln Continental and a Honda in the same showroom. Remembering Economics 101, they unsurprisingly would rather promote the high-priced Lincoln, which means space and support for the different needs of the Honda prospect/customer receive less attention. This leads to increased dissatisfaction among the discount buyers and, inevitably, a high percentage of incomplete transactions.

**

Considering all the aspects of this industry as described above, it seems that any objective observer would conclude the industry needs to be …
Dismantled, then Redefined and Restructured.

 

 

 

ONE GOAL: MULTIPLE PATHS

Even if we tend to forget the truism in a country characterized by both unprecedented affluence and huge disparities in income, everybody, student and non-student alike, wants the financial ability to meet basic needs: a roof over one’s head, some clothes (let’s not have a debate here about “needs” versus “wants”), and food on the table (not of the portion size which eventually brings big health bills). These are the tangible essentials, made more enjoyable by the presence of a supportive family, good friends, hopefully a special relationship, and a connection to some variant of the concept of community.

Question: Would it be advantageous to have this simple, honest imagery replace what seems to happen at present in high school guidance counselor offices when a freshman makes the required initial contact: either no message about the multiple ways to achieve a good life or a collection of words which convey the impression that it is college or bust for every student.

Why not offer the mother of all educational information spreadsheets: an array of alternative life paths and some inputs on the variables associated with each path.

This spreadsheet would have the sole purpose of providing information and guidance connected to the individual student. It would not be used to either promote a particular course of action nor to suggest that a high school freshman typically knows his exact future path. Instead the spreadsheet would be used as a reference point, perhaps with a scheduled check-in date, e.g. every six months as a freshman or sophomore, every three months as a junior and every two months as a senior.

The guidance counselor would use the student’s spreadsheet commentary to enhance the latter’s dialogue with that counselor, a marked improvement over current practice, where entirely too many students reach their senior year in high school without having had a thorough discussion about their next step.

The above combination of changes could produce a more thoughtful, smoother decision-making process, in many cases distinctly different from what is often in today’s world a stress-producing modus operandi when it comes to thinking about life after high school.

Moreover, there could be a collateral benefit of this attempt to somewhat de-stress the incremental education decision, namely a reduction in the high school drop-out rate. The proposed changes address two of these five most common reasons behind the decision to prematurely exit high school:

• An inferiority complex triggered by the message that “college is for everybody.”
• The family budget requires another wage-earner.
• Because of documentation issues, aspiration is diluted or defeated.
• Negative behavior, regardless of the reason, that brings expulsion.
• Inadequate attention given to the marketable skills (otherwise known as Career Technical Education) path to economic sustainability.

Within the category of higher education per se, in today’s environment of high tuition rates, burdensome debt levels for college graduates, and persistent underemployment of recent diploma recipients, a cooler look at the numbers is advantageous. While 70% of high school graduates pursue some type of incremental education, only 30% earn a four-year degree and 10% a two-year degree. Does it not therefore make even more sense to devote additional attention to all of the metrics of enhanced education, particularly those pertinent to the under-analyzed 60%.

These thoughts are not laid out because of economic ignorance. There is full awareness that the lifetime income benefits of greater education are substantial:

• Less than a high school diploma $900,000
• High school diploma 1,400,000
• Some college 1,600,000
• Associate’s degree 1,800,000
• Bachelor’s degree 2,400,000
• Master’s degree 2,800,000
• Doctorate 3,500,000

To put the data differently, assuming a 35-year working life, the annual economic difference between a high school drop-out and a Bachelor’s is about $40,000 before taxes, unadjusted for debt. Obviously, this is a big differential, even when debt repayment is considered.

It is less clear that the steps from high school diploma to associates degree are life-changers; a foregone positive differential of $10,000 per year before taxes could be acceptable to a person who develops a marketable skill without incurring more than a minimal amount of debt. Note that the income data above does not have a separate calculation for earnings of individuals with marketable skills not directly tied to the level of educational attainment.

There are of course other benefits associated with more education: for example, a high school drop-out is three times as likely to be unemployed as an individual with a Bachelor’s degree or more. Unemployment rates for those with an Associate’s degree or some college courses are roughly double those with a four-year degree or higher.

Bringing every macro and micro input together in a single comprehensive spreadsheet would be an informational way to move away from the “college for all” message which seems so pervasive. This tool would be relevant to the prospective next steps in every student’s life.

Better decision-making and planning should be the procedural goal of all concerned, from high school administrators to guidance counselors to parents and students.

BobHowittbooks.com/?page_id=22

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dear Andrea:
I cannot express how proud I am when telling people that my lawyer was a member of our foundation’s very first education program, which means we have interacted since your eighth grade. And I now disclose to you everything pertinent to my multiple activities. My joke that includes a great deal of truth is that I am allowed to be crazy, but you stop me from being insane.

Everything below is absolutely factual, as it happened and was verbalized at the time. Comments in parentheses were not spoken, only thought—by me, either at the time or in looking back on the events of the night. I leave it to you to separate the components into the above mental categories.
**
For some reason, I awoke at 4:30am on Tuesday, August 14. Perhaps it was because I was thinking about an errand I was going to run for a very special person or maybe I was a touch uneasy about an impending x-ray to see if my left hip implant was still in the right place. Who knows. I do know that I was a touch groggy when I went to the great Hunan restaurant in Denville for dinner with a long-time associate. We met up at 7:20pm and left around 10pm. I had ample food and my usual single bottle of Heineken.

Leaving Hunan, I made the turn necessary to put me on Franklin Road. Noticing a policeman behind me, I kept my speed down. On this street, which runs through a lake community, I did what I do too often, which is that I encroached on the yellow lines instead of staying tight to parked cars, from which people could suddenly emerge at any hour. (I paid for this transgression in nearby Wharton a couple of years ago; for a time, I contemplated measuring everything, lanes and cars, to fight the issue, but common sense prevailed … reluctantly.)
Nearing the curve for the underpass, the policeman put on his lights and I pulled over. I asked what was the issue and he responded with the yellow line violation, a $185 violation. Then he asked if I was intoxicated, to which I replied with the information on the lone beer. He said my eyes looked bloodshot and I told him perhaps it was the result of being an old guy at the end of a long day. He asked for my identification and when it took a while to find the insurance card, his thesis was probably strengthened, in his mind that is, not in actuality.

He noticed my front bumper situation, some problems caused by years back concrete barriers in a parking lot. If I cared about cars, the ugly optics would have been fixed. To him, it probably reinforced the point of view he already had about me. (I totally forgot that in my wallet is a “friend” card from a Dover policeman I have known since he was a teenager; I wondered later whether showing it would have changed anything, but the odds are 50-50 whether it would have been positive or negative, given the differences between the two towns.)
I did quietly complain about the number of speeders in front of my home at 50 Smith Road; he said that using radar, he had ticketed two people there in the past week, which is two more than I have seen ticketed in 38 years of living there.

Anyway, said policeman requested that I get out of my car, whereupon he gave me the “keep your eyes on my pen” sobriety test for multiple times, all while his car light was shining in my eyes. He was polite, calling me “sir” repeatedly (he looked to be in his low twenties; I subsequently learned he joined the force a year ago, which maybe explains the feeling that he was proving his bona fides to the older policeman who had joined the situation.)

Next came the leg tests. When I am nervous/anxious, my legs tend to soften and shake. I did terribly on those facets of the drunk driving test, which reinforced the prevailing assertion of the cop.

His next direction was succinct, “face the car, put your hands behind you.” He read me my rights and put the metal handcuffs on. It was the first time in handcuffs for me; they are uncomfortable for sure and they make navigating into the backseat of a police cruiser not easy.
Off to the Denville police station we went, with me being almost completely mute; I had cursed only once, when I was put into the car. (Regardless of my certainty that I would pass the breathalyzer test, I thought of certain negative headlines, as in “leader of non-profit foundation arrested.” Ugh.)

The breathalyzer in Denville was not functional, so we went to the station in Rockaway. The machine that is used needs a 20-minute warm-up. Fortunately the cuffs were off by then but to have this policeman attempting to make small talk was not something I cared about. I did ask what would happen to the paperwork when I was declared innocent. He assured me that nothing would show on a criminal record, but I was totally unconvinced that the episode would not live in some file cabinet accessible under a public information request.

Finally, as it approached midnight, I took the test, twice breathing into the tube as required. He did not announce the results until I asked: “Zero evidence of alcohol in my blood.”

(Question: if somebody had snapped a picture of me in handcuffs up against a police car, would they have stuck around for a picture when I aced the breathalyzer test. How many employers of low-level wage-earners would be patient enough to know the whole story.)
We got back in the car and returned to the Denville station for paperwork. While he was so occupied, I gazed at the police department group photo: 38 white males (who could have been clones, they looked so similar), one guy named Fernandez and four white females, three of whom appeared to be in administrative positions. (I got to thinking, given my views on the desirability of diversity, why was I living in this white town.)

When the policeman returned, he gave me the news – when he had said earlier they would take me back if the test was okay, he meant to my house, not my car. Because the latter had been impounded!

I was dismayed and posed the question of why my car was impounded if I was innocent. Standard procedure was the answer. I attempted a comment along the lines of Catch 22 and thought better of it. I refused his offer of a ride home — no way that my emotions would not boil over being cooped up with him. I told him I would walk home; he suggested it was a long way (about five miles). I stormed out and let loose a sufficiently loud f……. that it could have been heard throughout the town.

Yes, it was a touch late, but It was a nice night for a walk, which I like to do. Only a CVS was open to provide some sustenance, in this case, an energy bar. My only real concerns in walking at this totally dark hour were whether it would rain or whether a sudden noise would convince a homeowner that a prowler was afoot and he or or she would exercise their God-given right to fire away.
I had reached Route 10, climbed over the median barrier to walk facing what little traffic there was, and was less than a mile from my home, when – a police car pulled off the road in my direction. I laughed, thinking this was really my night. It was the same policeman.

After expressing amazement that I had walked this far, he was insistent about taking me the rest of the way. I briefly contemplated total refusal (could I be arrested for walking against the advice of the authorities) but said, “enough,” and climbed in.
Finally I hit the bed at 2am, rising entirely too soon at 8am. Shortly thereafter I called a Dover cab (Denville is apparently too affluent to have such a convenience and I have not yet signed up for Lyft.) Naturally he was twice as long as promised in coming for me and then asked where I was going –I had already provided that information multiple times to the dispatcher. When he asked for directions, I was speechless; then he went to one of his iDevices to guide him.

As I was waiting outside my front door for the cab, the developer of the McMansion in the next lot stopped by and among other items, informed me he would be moving his work trailer closer to my property and that he would need to connect to my electricity. While I mumbled something like, “how does that work?,” inside I was thinking that maybe I was wearing an invisible t-shirt which indicated it was time to be taken down a peg, to be educated about not really being in total control of my life.

Eventually, the cab did get to McCarter Towing in Rockaway. It would have been nice to have been informed by the policeman that cash was required to get one’s car out of hock. The bill was $205; of the total, $125 was simply the hook-up function. I paid and thought better of saying anything about the huge Trump sign in the office. I muttered “scam” a few times but not loudly, remembering that a member of the McCarter family is a Denville policeman.

As I drove away, I was reminded — not for the first time even though these particular circumstances were unique in my experience – of my being in a privileged position. Through the whole episode there never was a risk of ethnic stereotyping, of gender characterization, or documentation scrutiny. These thoughts mixed with the economic facts of life for the median wage-earner, whose income has not budged in many years, and for whom a $390 hit (plus two points) could easily mean severe damage to the ability to afford normal household expenses.
**
Andrea:
I know it is too late now, and the idea of calling you in the middle of the night never occurred to me (as I told you subsequently, I would have done so if the situation had escalated) – because I knew I was guilty of the driving violation and innocent of the drunk driving charge, but are there suggestions as to how I could have acted, and reacted, differently in this situation?
As always, thank you for your sage advice.

Bob Howitt

Dear Andrea: The Sequel
It has been interesting to read the various reactions to my not-quite-excellent adventure. Every person’s comments come from their own context of course, which would be equally true if the roles were reversed and I was the person making an observation. For young people (and others at different stages in their lives), this point about context is useful to keep in mind when talking with college professors and administrators, with staff at places where one is seeking an intern position or outright job, and with friends or networking contacts.
**
As a sometime writer, when a reader says, “I felt like I was right there,” it warms my heart irrespective of any commentary on the “details” of the incident. To have this appraisal coupled with “I love your style of writing” is too much. Okay, now you know, I do have an ego, even though I abhor arrogance. And I assure you that in leading with an appraisal of my writing, I am in no way trivializing the incident.

More seriously by far, minority readers were divided as to whether they would have been more aggressive but unanimous in their belief that my treatment was more gentle than they would have received. Their stories of being stopped by the police underscored the role of luck in how they were treated. They were almost of one mind in their condemnation of my midnight stroll, the exception being a social worker who accepted my premise that the walk had a perceptible calming effect.

“OMG” and “nightmare” came from those with nothing resembling a comparable experience, although they did comment about the unknowingness of life.

“Wow” was the response from more than a few who never would have envisioned yours truly being in handcuffs in a police car. Uh, me neither.

A lengthy critique of the inadequate car information provided by the policeman and the unfairness associated with the car impounding was intellectually appropriate but the timing for me to deliver such an analysis could not have been worse.
The suggestion of a selfie with the policeman — and me in handcuffs — was facetious for sure, as was the comment that the essay reader had some spare cash in a drawer in case I needed to be bailed out.

A person on a multistate journey assured me she would be more careful than heretofore.

I should have shown the “friend of a policeman” card that is in my wallet, according to more than one informed observer, but somehow that seems a touch unfair. (OK, I know that if life was fair, Elvis would be alive and all his imposters would be deceased.) In any case, the policeman’s tone was even and polite, which is good, because my distaste for undue displays of institutional power would otherwise have been reflected in verbal escalation. Not good.

Descriptors like “hilarious” and “had me in stitches” do puzzle me somewhat. Did these readers mistake the writing for fiction? Are they laughing with me or at me or is their context some similar incident in their own lives and it is funny to see another person having said experience. Or, is it that human inclination to sometimes laugh as a defense mechanism, covering up more difficult emotions?

Interestingly, the one military person who commented said he would have called his lawyer immediately. This seems counterintuitive, i.e., one accustomed to power and structure and regulations would seemingly be inclined to side with an organization having the same characteristics. Instead, perhaps it is because of this experience that he sees the warts, the inconsistencies which cry for redress.

“There are so many different ways that systems, assumptions, power, and resources impact the story” was probably the most philosophically encompassing reaction.
**
I appreciate the suggestions of fighting the violation (I could note a trivial mistake, namely the color of my car was wrong, or a not-so-unimportant error, namely the expiration date of my license), but this summer has drained that kind of energy. I have spent multiple hours with credit card/computer people because of hacking, there has been a clustering of difficult student situations, and a personal matter has made emotional equilibrium a challenge.

No, an Op Ed piece is not appropriate. The policeman, by the book, did not nothing wrong. And an essay on the unfairness of an innocent person having to pay for an impounded car does not exactly bring in a tremendous number of readers or computer clicks, even when the headline is about a car being taken to a location run by a member of the same family that includes a policeman from the sending town.

I confess that now I do notice yellow lines with a fixation that is obsessive, at least for a while. I observe that government entities – mail carriers, utilities and roadwork people – typically cause a driver to have to cross those lines, as do private companies – FedEx, UPS, garbage trucks and dozens of landscapers. The list of reasons for yellow line transgressions also includes evading potholes, turning left in many instances, pedestrians, backing out of my driveway, and … avoiding truly drunken drivers.

Did I learn a lesson from this episode? Yeah, do not cross those yellow lines, regardless of how tired I am and irrespective of any parked cars on the shoulder. Will I still have a single Heineken at dinner? Yes.

Did I gain additional insight into my level of empathy for those in more financially and legally challenged positions? I am not certain – given that I have spent 25 years attempting to assist young people fighting battles of cultural adaptation, documentation, jobs, college, and most importantly, the misconceptions and quick labeling by the prevailing ethnicity in this country of those who are different.

Peace.

BobHowittbooks.com/?page_id=22

TWENTY-ONE TOPICS FOR AN IMMIGRATION DIALOGUE
If you happen to stumble into a discussion about immigration, may I make a suggestion. Establish this as a ground rule: when person A states something, person B cannot use “but” in his or her response. Note: Ducking any foolish thought of prioritizing the points below, I have put them in alphabetical order.

*African-Americans until relatively recently were loathe to be critical in public about the actions of other African-Americans. Analogously, does it seem that immigration advocates rarely speak out when an undocumented individual commits a truly criminal act?
*Canada welcomes immigrants – if they have certain skills. The American system is almost the reverse, the statutory emphasis being on family reunification. Should the USA put more emphasis on skills?
*Crossing into the USA without documentation is a misdemeanor carrying a maximum sentence of six-months in jail. Many/most? plead guilty, avoid jail, and go back to their home country (to try again?)
*Do businesses want tighter scrutiny of the E-Verify system for validating the status of new employees?
*Does the average older American realize that his social security check is dependent on payments into the program, which means younger workers — which means that more immigrants, not fewer, are needed since the white population is not regenerating its numbers?
*How does ICE determine which countries participate in the diversity visa lottery system?
*How much of the blame for the criminal activity and political corruption in South and Central America should be shouldered by the USA? Is the response different for similar situations in, for example, Malaysia or South Africa or Turkey?
*If a parent, about to become illegal by walking into the USA without any documentation, loses temporary custody of his/her children – themselves illegal for the same reasons, what is their legal, not moral, claim against separation of the family? (Unaccompanied apprehended children number about 50,000 annually, 2/3 from Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador [WSJ: 6-30-18])
*If a border wall was accepted as something to be constructed and DACA-holders immediately were placed on a path to become green card-holders, would immigration advocates accept the deal?
*If American schools treated blue-collar jobs as desirable alternative routes to a career, and were equitably supported in terms of both money and quality staffing, would seasonal employers have many more job applications and therefore not be concerned that the number (81,000) of H-2B visas available for Summer hires of non-Americans is inadequate?
*If I, an American from birth, rob my neighbor, will my church prevent the police from arresting me?
*Is the country’s most pressing employment problem finding more low-paid service workers, ranging from the agricultural sector to personal care and home health aides? At present, these job categories (as well as many in the higher paid but unpredictable construction trades) are heavily filled by immigrants.
*If I walk into France from Belgium and have a baby, is he or she a French citizen?
*Is the real problem/challenge behind constructing a logical immigration program that the USA is in a unique position, given its size, its job-creation capability, its historical pledge to be open to all comers? In other words, expectations of the USA are wholly different than the expectations of any other country.
*Let’s say you have a Russian, a Mexican, and an Indian who have overstayed their tourist visas? Should they be treated differently?
*Should the USA welcome all asylum-seekers from high crime rate countries, where presumably the applicants can prove that they meet all the asylum tests, perhaps most important being that they would be in imminent danger if they returned to their home country? Total seekers in 2016 were 180,000, compared with a typical annual admission count of 25,000 (WSJ 6-30-18).
*The American immigration system must be changed. Does it make sense to scrap ICE and start over?
*Were jet travel, the internet, and smartphones around during previous waves of immigration?
*What would happen if the tourist visa was shortened to three months, from the existing six?
*Which immigration policy group would be against hiring more judges and reducing what can be a multi-year wait to resolve one’s case? Right now, there are 334 immigration judges, juggling 2,000 cases apiece, with a typical resolution time of two years. The backlog is nearly 700,000 (WSJ: May 24, 2018).
*Would you prefer a completely open border? Would the neighboring states pick up the additional tab for education, healthcare, etc.? Would all states pay proportionately, based on their economies?

Bob Howitt, wkbj@att.net; 973-537-1814; not a PhD.

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