Since the end of World War II, whenever a Cassandra has warned those who were optimistic, “beware, this time is different,” he or she has ultimately been proven wrong. The on-going growth of the American economy would eventually/inevitably bring logic to the investment process, albeit sometimes after protracted distortions in equity valuations.  And “life as we know it” went on, not to worry.

However, if 2016 does not present a truly different set of parameters, I must be missing something. Below is what undoubtedly constitutes only a partial list of “differences.” There is no attempt to prioritize.

*In the year to June 30, 2015, slightly more non-white babies were born in the United States than white. Demographic projections anyone!

*Not only is financial inequality at levels of nearly a century ago, but the middle class – historically the engine of American economic growth – is being crushed.

*As a high school student over a half-century ago, the conceptualization of the world (i.e. importance in understanding) was seemingly the USA, 70%; Western Europe, 20%, and the rest of the world, shorthanded to ROW, a mere 10%. Now virtually all the real economic growth is in ROW.

*The Federal Reserve is de facto being charged with the responsibility of using monetary policy to spur economic growth. The Fed has pumped out funds like there was no tomorrow (maybe there won’t be) and as if the age-old connection of excess money creation with inflation had been repealed.

*Developed countries are selling debt with negative interest rates. Huh!

*America’s racial divide shows no signs of being healed (whoops, that is not a “difference”), and racism/anti-immigrant sentiment is rising in the same Western European countries which prided themselves on inclusion.

*The American presidential campaign! Never seen one like it.

*Suicide rates are rising domestically for every cohort except geezers like the writer, where the rate was already higher than elsewhere.

*The environment is being destroyed; ho hum, that’s a subject for the future. Agreements now, maybe implementation later.

*The statistical combination of unemployment (not employment), inflation, dissatisfaction levels, bond yields and monetary expansion is unprecedented.

*We produce record levels of food, much of it in a cruel fashion, and an absurd amount is wasted. 

*There are now more non-religion adherents than those enrolled in a religion.  Correction, there is a religion which unites all Americans: consumerism.

*The daily violence worldwide defies easy analysis and understanding, making one – bad joke coming — yearn — for the old days of good guys (Americans) versus bad guys (the Commies).  As for gun control, forgettaboutit; alas, another non-difference.

*On the foreign front (as if it were truly separate from domestic issues),

• Great Britain inexplicably decides it does not want to be in an economic combine where it had its cake (trade and its role as a financial center) and could eat it too (have its own currency).
• Russia’s well-known disregard of world opinion is again exemplified in its doping scandal, the latest chapter actually (the last non-difference).
• China’s growth rate has gone from astronomical to only good faster than its state-controlled accountants can manufacture the numbers.
• In five years, Istanbul goes from a city I recommended to everybody to one which is a center of chaos.
• In an even shorter period of time, Brazil transitions from the golden country of South America – continuous high growth plus big sporting events on the calendar – to one characterized by political, economic, and physical sickness.

Nitpickers undoubtedly can point to a few items above which might be characterized as cyclical and not indicative of structural change. More interesting though is that different critics would select different entries, which proves the point: the preponderance of evidence is that this time is different.

What does all this mean for an equity investor? Damned if I know. Right now, the United States is “the best house in a bad neighborhood.” Elasticity of price-earnings ratios historically has proven to have few definable limits, even when the starting point for valuations is a relatively high level, as is true today.

Full disclosure: I have an equity exposure of 40%, almost entirely in high grade, globally important companies. If and when people equate “this time (really) is different” with a bubble-bursting hit to the stock market of 25%, the level of pain should be tolerable.  I think.

 

Maybe these comments or actions would be better left unsaid or undone:

*Lamenting Income inequality while wearing a Nike hat.

*White middle-schoolers singing an African-American spiritual.

*Expecting a surprise.

*Meeting at Starbucks to discuss protesting white power.

*Using your iPhone to call friends about opposing the building of a cell tower in your neighborhood.

*Sneering at McDonald’s while eating at a restaurant which is not required to post its nutrition data.

*Moving to a house in a “better school” district and then criticizing urban charter school results because the latter’s parents are motivated.

*Crying about the plight of the poor and then preventing a WalMart or a Dollar Store from opening nearby.

*Saying “I Never” –whatever one fills in.

*Extolling environmentalism from your second residence.

 

OLDER WHITE PEOPLE: INCREASINGLY YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY CHECK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MINORITIES OF WORKING AGE!

 Now that I have your attention, can we talk about — IMMIGRATION REFORM

 Introduction

On any given day, there are millions of people moving around in the United States who are not residents or citizens. Some have unexpired tourist visas, some are here only to work and have the necessary permits, some are under very specific visas aimed at particular needs (e.g., H-1B), and some have special temporary visas (e.g., athletes, performers, students).

Then there are some whose tourist visas have expired and who stayed here anyway. And some who came here without any of the necessary documents.

It should be possible to categorize these last two categories, collectively referred to as “illegal immigrants,” as constituting two primary groups: those who want to achieve legal residency in the USA and those who simply want to work for a stipulated period of time and then return to their home country. It is equally logical to assert that this country should have no obligation to any illegal immigrant who wants neither to be a resident nor to work under the terms available. In other words, those who decline either designation should be deported.

Excluded from the terminology of the above paragraph are those seeking asylum and refugees. In addition, it is not to be construed by use of the term “residency” that the individual in question necessarily intends to live in the USA 365 days.

[The logic in this extended essay is applicable regardless of the pending Supreme Court decision regarding DAPA. From a practical and emotional standpoint, however, if President Obama’s executive order is upheld, it would support the underlying rationale for this plan.]

I am not a politician, nor am I a lawyer. Perhaps the label of “idealist” fits, or even “dreamer.” Simply put, I have interacted with countless members of the immigrant community over the past twenty-five years and would love to see reform accomplished.

The United States is in a unique position with respect to immigration, and I am not referring to the “give me your poor, you hungry” verbiage. The country is both large, which means there is physical room for newcomers, and it is not enamored with establishing a skill/education point system with respect to deciding which immigrants can enter legally. Nor, whatever the bluster, will it ever build an abortive “mother of all walls” or commit the financial and human resources that would be necessary to apprehend every single person who is here “out of status.”

Whether one considers the immigration actions of the USA as fitting its self-description as being “welcoming” is more of a debate, undoubtedly requiring referees and a limit to alcohol consumption. What is indisputable is that people from other countries consistently want to come here — because their home country does not have enough jobs or has a political/cultural system which limits certain freedoms or is less safe — just as people from elsewhere quite often prefer American dollars to their own currencies.

The result is a set of immigration laws, executive orders, and implementation procedures that would make Kafka proud, so I thought I would attempt a resolution.

The immigration plan outlined below revolves around policies that pertain to money, taxes, and language. Adherence to the requirements would bring certainty of legal status to those who are currently classified as illegal immigrants yet want to demonstrate their commitment to the USA.

I believe that those who are out-of-status would react positively to a system of specificity and clarity, within a reasonable timeframe, that simultaneously requires individuals to make decisions about their future place in America. They would welcome an accompanying end to the current situation of seemingly random enforcement regarding deportation.

With the country demographically evolving within the next quarter-century to one of multiple minorities, it is important to put a bow on a package of sensible immigration reforms and move on to the numerous more substantive issues on the nation’s to-do list.  

The Plan

There are undoubtedly different attitudes among illegal/undocumented/out-of-status immigrants about becoming American citizens, although the current political environment is prompting more green card-holders to seek naturalization. At the same time, there is no disputing the observation that every person carrying a pejorative label would like to end the uncertainty and fear, particularly concerning deportation, associated with the shadow life they are typically leading. Becoming a resident would suffice; citizenship is secondary.

While I have not conducted a professional poll of the 11 million immigrants caught in the web they and we have created, I still have confidence in this conclusion: if each head of a defined household filing unit had the opportunity, as the saying goes, to beg, borrow or steal (just kidding on the latter) $10,000 in order to receive green cards, in a completely predictable fashion, for himself and up to 6 additional members of that household, they would do the deal.

Putting aside concerns over their perception of the trustworthiness of our government apparatus, illegal immigrants would come forward under this plan and be eager to resolve their situation. They would self-declare: “we want to be residents” or “we are only here to work.”

Let’s call the document that would be created to bridge the gap between the current predicament and becoming a green card-holder an Extended Year Visa (EYV). If the work route is chosen, the permit is a separate document not connected at all to the EYV. It is here labeled “WP.”

These would be the requirements:

1. A household is defined as a filing unit, with a singular head of the household. Besides himself, the head has a maximum of 6 additional slots for other individuals, who do not need to be connected biologically to him. He pays the $10,000 referenced above. The slots can be filled either immediately or in the future; in all cases, however, the names of the individuals must be filled in at the time of filing for an EYV. If within the filing unit, there are individuals 18 or older, they are subject to the same income tax return and English language requirements, to be spelled out below, as the head of household.

If only a total of 3 slots are taken, the fee is reduced to $5,000, but there cannot be any additions to that household filing unit in the future.

If a head of household filing unit seeks additional slots, he cannot. There must be a second head of household designated. That individual pays the fee, either $5,000 or $10,000, dependent on the number of slots. He is subject to the same head of household rules as the initial head of household.

2. Children could be those here already or those expected to come, keeping in mind that the names must be filled in at the time of filing for an EYV. Any individual at least 18 years old can designate himself as a head of a household filing unit, at which time he receives the 6 additional slots. He must fill in those slots with specific names and he must abide by the rules of an EYV.

3. The holder of an EYV will have three years to apply for a green card.

4. Each person in the household who earned money from a job must file an income tax return for 2015 and must commit to filing that return on an annual basis. Three years of tax return filings are required for the EYV holder to apply for a green card. Filing an income tax return is a sign that the individual wants to “invest” in being in the United States. Failure to file means the person would be deported.

5. When the EYV is submitted for conversion to a green card, the applicant must pass a test of rudimentary Transactional English. Failure on this test means an automatic re-test three months later. Failure on a third try three months later means deportation.  Learning a minimal amount of English is an indication that an immigrant wants to “invest” in being in the United States. The test would include three questions each pertaining to driving, government, police, store, taxes, and school, a total of 18. Passing would be 13. Note that the citizenship test at present is a mixture of verbal (correct answers for 6 of 10) and reading/writing (satisfactory response to one of three questions each).

6. Beginning in 2022, there would be no family reunification provisions in immigration law as there would have been sufficient time to comply with the rules of the EYV and its implications for households. Transition time is needed because it is quite common for families to come to the United States in stages, e.g., the father comes and finds work, then sends for his wife. The children, if any, may also come at different times, depending on financial factors and the existence of an adult who is performing the function of in locos parentis. Note that under the EYV, there is a one-time election with respect to a person aged 18 or higher; that individual must either be considered a head of household or be on the list for a different head of household. (Or they could elect the WP route.)
7. Beginning in 2022, a mother would have to be physically in the United States for at least three years for her newborn child to be an American citizen at birth. Relative to the benefits accruing to being a citizen, the three-year commitment (from entry into the country to the date of birth) is rather modest. Births to illegal immigrants in 2013 were 295,000, a rate which is the same as that of 2001 and which compares with a peak of 370,000 in 2006 and 2007 (Pew Research). There are an estimated 4.5 million American children who have benefitted from the current constitutional protection.

8. Holders of an EYV must purchase auto insurance if they have a driver’s license. Driving without a license would make a person subject to deportation. EVY-holders would receive a dated EYV work permit for three years.

9. Effective 1/1/22, there would be an EYV-WP for new adult immigrants, a phenomenon that cannot and should not be discouraged. The American economic engine remains  alluring to people from countries with unemployment rates that are a multiple of those here. The EYV would be available after three years of income tax filings and a passing score on the Transactional English test. Note: current illegal immigrants receive an EYV immediately and have three years to get their green card. New immigrants have an EYV-WP for three years to prove their commitment, which then triggers a three-year EYV period to actually receive a green card.

During this period, from the moment they enter the country, they must have a dated work permit. They must get a driver’s license if they intend to drive at any time. They must purchase auto insurance. If they do not do these things any time during their six-year period between entry to the country and receipt of a green card, they are subject to immediate deportation. The cost of an EYV for new arrivals is the same as that pertaining to current EYV holders.

10. For the immigrant who is only interested in working here, not in getting a green card, the requirement is a dated WP, renewable annually (akin to the H-2B Guest Worker visa). If they seek to drive, they must get a driver’s license, which they are eligible for, and auto insurance, if they have a car. A person overstaying his WP, or otherwise violating its requirements, is immediately subject to deportation.

It is in the country’s self-interest to have individuals in the WP category; at the same time, it would be advantageous if many of them converted to resident status. Such a move would make current laws mandating K-12 education and access to public services more in synch with the intentions of said individuals and their families. It is awkward for all concerned, excepting those who are unattached males or females (admittedly an important percentage of WP-holders), to go through the annual WP process, which requires a return for a stipulated period of time to the individual’s home country. Many, perhaps half, of all immigrants initially come with a working mentality, i.e. make and remit some meaningful money and return to the home country. In time, many of these same people get accustomed to the American life and switch to a desire for residency.

11. Existing visa programs like the H-1B and EB-5 (discussed later) would be folded into the EYV system. With respect to student visas, on expiration, the student could only remain in the country under either an EYV (either directly as a head of household or as a member of an EYV household) or a WP. In addition, it will not be necessary for schools to end-run the H-1B visa rules when they set up on-campus entrepreneurial endeavors; CUNY recently announced that it is taking advantage of an exemption on the H-1B cap for non-profit institutions to attract immigrant entrepreneurs.

The cap for H-1B visas is 65,000 annually plus 20,000 reserved for those with advanced degrees. The application window opened on April 1 and was closed within  week one.

12. In place of the current immigration limits by country, the future limitations will be labeled: Asia, Central and South America (inclusive of Cuba, whose special immigration privilege – residency is automatic after one year on American soil– should be ended with the opening up of that country that is taking place), Europe, Africa, and other.

There will be a maximum of 1.7 million (equal to the fiscal 2015 immigrant total) new EYV-WP documents issued yearly beginning in 2022; the above regions will have the same percentage of that number as they have had during the cumulative period of 2006-2015. Included therein are those in the asylum or refugee category (note that the murder rate in Honduras is a dozen times that of the USA).

Beginning in 2016-17, the limit on those electing the WP designation is two million annually. Keep in mind that the USA has 320 million people; i.e., the above numbers are not large relatively.

These absolute numbers are in the context of the USA needing to get its house in order, i.e., to have a defined, cohesive approach to immigration and how newcomers are melded (or not) into the fabric of their new “home country.”

13. It should go without saying, but any illegal immigrant (which is to be defined as a person who declines both the EYV and a WP) who has been convicted of a felony is subject to immediate deportation; any felon attempting to enter the United States in the future will be sent back immediately, as will anybody harboring the fugitive.

14. Within the EYV or WP period, the holder is allowed to change his mind – once. Note that a person changing from an EYV may create adverse ripple effects on those on his or her original covered list of an additional 6 people. Presumably he would only make that change if a different individual were able to be the head of household. For the person changing his mind, there is no return of monies previously paid to the government. The new head of household is not required to put up $10,000, but he also cannot change any of the names on the list, nor can he add a replacement name.

15. It is recognized that as EYV and WP are unrolled, over time, there will be a need for adjustments – such an expectation is not a substantive reason for not moving ahead on the EYV and WP approach.  Better to have a good approach to 80% of a situation than to wait on that magical day when somebody has an answer to 100% of the challenges.

16. There are a projected three million heads of households, admittedly a large number for the bureaucracy to process, but under the EYV/WP plan, efficiency and effectiveness would both be increased. Staffers would be doing the right things instead of, at present, “simply” doing things right (in their view anyway). Regardless of temporary incremental staffing costs, over time, the net cost (total costs minus revenues from the plan) would not be any greater than it is at present.  Actually, on a ten-year average calculation, I think it would be much less.

Supporting Information: Some History

• President Obama has instructed ICE prosecutors to use discretion in their handling of undocumented individuals, first through DACA (begun in 2012, it is functioning smoothly apparently) and then through an executive order (labeled DAPA) which is being reviewed by the Supreme Court. DACA-protected individuals, on the record, have obtained better jobs, driver’s licenses, credit cards – some of the key characteristics of a person committing to this country. Over 500,000 young people have DACA protection.

DAPA would make 3.9 million individuals eligible for protection from deportation; some 1.5 million are currently eligible under DACA or Temporary Protected Status. This leaves 5.8 million ineligible, according to Pew Research. The skew therein is toward single men, 2.1 million; presumably many of these would be attracted to the WP route.

As a further wrinkle, international students (a classification that some colleges apply to undocumented students living in the USA) who are pursuing degrees in the STEM disciplines are now permitted to stay in the USA for three years of on-the-job training after they have received their college diploma. This provision, another Obama initiative, is basically to create a window for the affected individuals to pursue some type of visa, assisted by the Silicon Valley tech companies.

The EYV/WP plan supersedes DACA and DAPA and all immigration-related executive orders, both in fairness and clarity of outcome. As stated at the outset, if the Supreme Court upholds DAPA, the real world significance is consistent with the logic of this plan.

• It is not analytically useful to pull out the assimilation patterns of prior waves of immigration, which is something anti-reformers attempt under the lament of “why can’t they do it the right way, like prior generations did.” With economical jet travel, e-mail, smartphones, and multiple television channels bringing in programming from the “home country,” immigrants are able to stay connected in ways that were never feasible before.

Perhaps a generation or two hence, the response will become more clear, but at present, one does not know the meaning of “home country” without further elaboration.

 While it would be nice to reach back and show how many illegal immigrants already have made commitments to being in the USA, it is not practical. They were taking their actions based on a set of laws different from what is outlined herein. Think of this plan as a clearing of the decks, a starting over, with much reduced bureaucratic agita.

 There is a precedent for selling visas and green cards. Under the EB-5 visa program, a foreign investor gets a green card if he puts at least $500,000 into a project in the USA that creates ten jobs in an area where unemployment is 150% or more of the average. In 2015, there were 17,000+ applications for the 10,000 annual slots. Reflecting the anxiety felt by many affluent people about the sustainability of their fortunes in the face of local political turmoil, more foreign investors (80% are Chinese) have been taking advantage of EB-5, helped by American officials willing to draw maps to create the necessary unemployment number. Similarly, aggressive real estate developers have used the EB-5 program in their financial planning.

Why should affluent people have still another advantage; they have enough already. The EYV-WP plan would be hugely more inclusive, to the benefit of all.

Supporting Information:  A Few Data Points

• Of the 11 million illegals, an estimated 3 million are due to receive their green cards within three years and another 3 million after that – often the “after” is many, many years. Coincidentally, these applicants will have paid $10,000 in cumulative fees while continuously being in an uncertain state of limbo. The low level of visibility and certainty (non-existent actually) associated with the current process does nothing to negate the perpetual fear of deportation, which affects approximately 400,000 people per year.

• There are fewer illegal immigrants today than in 2007, when the number peaked at 12 million, after it had jumped from 3.5 million in 1990. One reason is the improvement in the Mexican economy; Mexicans represent about half of all illegals (who, in turn, are about 28% of the 41 million foreign-born residents of the USA) and there is no longer any net inflow from that country (the gross number is down as well, and the majority of the inflow to the USA is for family reunification purposes).

In 2015, there were fewer than 200,000 Mexicans apprehended at the border, far off the peak of 1.6 million in 2000. If one traces the economic cycle of the USA, particularly that of housing construction, the Mexican numbers become understandable.

In a different way, Mexico is key to illegal immigration as it is the route for those coming from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. According to the Pew Research Center, deportations by Mexico have more than doubled in the past four years.

• Over half of current illegal immigrants reportedly have overstayed conventional tourist visas. This is an important source of the uproar over “not playing by the rules,” which then leads to the “amnesty” bogeyman. Under the plan outlined here, not playing by the EYV and WP rules means automatic subjection to deportation: no ifs, ands, or buts.

• In the government year ended September 30, 2015, of the 45 million arrivals to the United States who came by air or sea, less than 1% overstayed their visas. This does not contradict the estimate that 40% of illegal immigrants have overstayed visas as this number is cumulative from decades of travelers. Note that in 2015, there were another 110 million land arrivals requiring no visas.

• There are 8.8 million legal residents eligible to naturalize. Of these, 2.7 million are Mexican. According to Pew Research, only one-third of eligible Mexicans historically have opted to become citizens, half the rate of all immigrants. For the record, Mexican immigration is now a net zero; it is China and India which are the leaders in sending people to the land of opportunity.

• As a reminder, sheer practicality is an issue when it comes to the question of how to deal with illegal immigrants; there is no way to back up the 747s and fill them with “illegals.” Nor is there any way to construct a foolproof border barrier/staffed 24/7 without draining economic resources from uses which are more pressing for unemployed Americans. An independent analysis, clearly by somebody with a great deal of time on his hands, pegged the cost of evicting the country of 11 million people at $400 billion (more agents, more planes, more detention facilities), with a $1 trillion impact on the economy.

• For all the trash talking about “America is not the way it used to be,” those renouncing their citizenship number less than 4,000 annually, in stark contrast to the number becoming citizens, over 650,000.

Supporting Information: Education Impact

• It is no secret that the absence of documentation is a major inhibitor of educational aspiration. Over the years, this question has been posed to students affected by the dilemma of not having the resident status which would enable them to receive federal financial aid, thus increasing their access to college.

“If a freshman in high school learns for the first time that he or she is undocumented,       with all that means with respect to making the commitment to higher education, out of    ten students, how many (1) continue to work hard nonetheless, (2) give up completely,      or (3) continue to have the same attitude as       that of many documented friends: exert     themselves in classes they care about and blow off the others.

The clustered results of this informal survey are as follows: two young people will stay    positive and proactive in pursuing further education, three will lose any hope and give up,             and five are in the “whatever” classification.

Looking at the demographic changes taking place in the USA, specifically the evolution to multiple minorities, America must institute changes in immigration laws which would             shift these survey responses toward the pursuit of higher education.

• By law, K-12 schools cannot ask students about their documentation status. The inadvertent outcome is that the subject of documentation as it relates to the pursuit of higher education becomes a combination of ignorance by teachers/counselors/staff and hush-hush conversations with those who are sympathetic to the affected students and in a position to somehow help. With a known road to resident status, the above legal restriction should be lifted, facilitating an improved, more open conversation.  In turn, this will mean a more educated, productive citizenry, as is already being demonstrated by those with the DACA designation.

Supporting Information: Societal Aspects

• The word “amnesty” has no real meaning — and there is wider agreement on this assertion than might be thought. For example, a poll of Iowa caucus voters said government spending was the number one issue at 32%, with the economy second at 27%, terrorism third at 25%, and immigration a lowly fourth at 13%.

• California has over 25% of all illegal immigrants. With over half of its total population either immigrants or children of immigrants, it has the most student friendly higher education policies (access, rate, and aid) in the USA, has opened the door to undocumented individuals obtaining professional credentials, and has led the way in access to driver’s licenses. Counterintuitively, Texas has been more open to undocumented students than many states which carry the “liberal” label.

It is likely that an important percentage of illegal Mexican immigrants in California will elect the WP designation.  One indication of where their hearts lie is the $25 billion remitted to Mexico in 2015 (2% of that country’s GDP), most of which came from those working in the USA.

Relevant to the illegal immigrant/crime accusation, in California, foreign-born adults        represent one-third of the population, but only one-sixth of the prison population.

• By clearing the decks of nebulous, uncertain change-of-status cases now on the books, immigration personnel could focus more clearly on the separate category of requests for asylum from political and sexual abuse. Asylum and refugee-seekers would receive an EYV and would count against the overall immigration limitation. At present, there is a 10,000 annual visa limit on cases involving domestic violence against undocumented persons; the backlog of cases to be adjudicated is many years.

• With immigrants no longer in legal limbo, but with a clear path to a specific, legal designation, undocumented women who are currently the subject of abuse by their partners, but understandably reluctant to seek help, would be less likely to stay quiet.

• At present, in the undocumented world, there is an expensive, awkward, rife-with- potential-for-misunderstandings situation called “business marriages.” This plan would put a large dent in the logic for these liasons.

• The role of “coyotes” used by those crossing into the USA without documentation would be severely reduced, which is all to the good – they are equally expensive and much more directly dangerous.

• Recent studies have show that bilingual students have better social skills, which can enhance their ability to think critically in their careers. The latter will most likely evolve in a fashion that prizes those who are bilingual and bicultural.

Supporting Information: Macroeconomic Issues

• To return to the tease presented at the top of this essay, older white people in the USA increasingly will need younger non-white people economically. In 1980, the overall population over 65 years of age was one-fifth of those ages 20-64. It is projected to be two-fifths by 2035. Putting it another way, the future working person will be financially responsible for twice the number of retirees of a generation ago.

By the year 2023, below the age of 30, whites will represent less than half of the population; from now until 2030, there will be an estimated decline of 12 million whites of working age.  (Western Europe and Japan are in even more difficult shape from the standpoint of pension obligations and numbers of people in the working age category.) These numbers underscore the absolute need for pumping the economic engine, which in turn requires immigration reform.

• The broader picture on demographics is quite interesting, and relevant to the issue of immigration. Some 25% of the world’s population (20% in the USA) is 10-24 years of age, but they mostly live in developing countries. For example, Nigeria has a median age of 18 and India’s is 27; in contrast, that of the USA is 37 and that of Germany is 46. To make the economics work in the latter countries and their peers, they require more of what the former nations have in excess supply, young people. Hence the need for logical policies on immigration.

• The expectation in the USA is that the labor participation rate (civilians, over 16 years of age, working or looking for work), which is now 63% versus 66% twenty years ago, will continue to decline, reflecting the aging population and the disposition of young people to work less. Still another argument for immigration reform.

• In many companies, especially those in the industrial sector, there is an important age gap between older, close to retirement employees and much younger colleagues. If the prior group expects their social security checks to be unaffected, they need more of the “youngsters” working. Given the demographic changes taking place, this means more educated minorities are required, which in turn means the access to government financial aid that can only come with legal status. As things stand now with respect to demographics and educational attainment, by the year 2020, college enrollments will be trending downward, which is not a favorable outlook for the economy overall.

• If you are thinking that white employment levels will recover, think about these data from prize-winning author Charles Murray. His data set was white men in their 30s and 40s with working class jobs or no occupation and no more than a high school diploma or GED. In 1970, 95% were in the labor force and 85% were married. In 2010, the comparative figures had declined to 79% and 52%.

• In 1990, there were 17-18 million manufacturing jobs in the USA, paying a median real gross wage of approximately $800 per week. Now there are 12-13 million such jobs, and the pay has not changed. These jobs disappeared in part because of globalization in general and the incremental impact of trade agreements; illegal immigrants cannot be blamed for the loss of jobs per se.

• The fact that there are more job openings in this country than there are unemployed people is partly a function of large numbers of immigrants not being allowed to work up to their capabilities because of status problems.  It is not a stretch to say that without more sensible immigration policies, economic growth in this country will be so low that all government financial commitments will be up for question.  The incremental funding that is already required at the K-12 level, where education must be delivered without any reference to documentation, requires higher education or the development of a marketable skill for society to recoup its K-12 education investment.

 Supporting Information: Microeconomic Inputs

• Dueling research studies have failed to identify any significant impact on existing wages from the availability of illegal immigrants. The real issues are different. Having said this, there is an exception. When Arizona (2008) mandated employers use the Federal E-Verify system to see if an employee had a bona fide social security number and (2010) implemented other anti-illegal immigrant measures, it saw a 40% drop in the number of said immigrants and wages did rise for resident workers. Admittedly, one of the unintended consequences of mandated higher minimum wages could be an economic opening for undercutting by those seeking only to work in the USA. Tougher penalties for non-abiding employers should alleviate this possibility.

• Unemployed white middle managers whose jobs are never coming back are not going to schlep to the Workforce Training building to learn how to pick apples or pluck chickens. Those jobs almost automatically go to others, who happen to be immigrants in many cases. Without them, inflation in food prices would increase significantly

• William Frey of the Brookings Institute has devoted considerable attention to the generation/ethnic gap. Among many other data points, he notes that states which are experiencing sharp increases in minority young people, in the context of a senior citizen component which skews white, are often laggards in child well-being measures, which is certainly grist for the racial theorist mill. He cites Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee in this regard.

• The unfairness of the present social security situation, wherein illegal immigrants experience paycheck deductions with little hope of eventually collecting the benefits, would be rectified going forward. According to Henry Cisneros and Sol Trujillo, one million new immigrants equals $500 billion more paid into social security over a 25-year period than the amount received. Note that social security is neither insurance nor a contract; the percentages paid in and the amounts paid out are a function of legislation, which means multiple (and changing) economic and political variables are involved.

• An independent study, clearly pro-immigration in motivation, has found that immigrants have started over half of start-up companies in the USA recently valued at $1 billion or more. Unfortunately the study does not distinguish among residents, H-lB visa holders, or undocumented individuals. Nonetheless, the point – the relationship of immigrants to new business endeavors, large or small, is clearly valid.

• According to Pew Research, the median household income of legal immigrants is $52,000, compared with $36,000 for households of illegal immigrants. The overall economy would be lifted if/when the latter household income number rises with greater education and employment opportunities. And there would be less necessity for access to anti-poverty programs.

• In the 2000-2014 period, Latinos reportedly represented half of the increase in home ownership in the USA, which is doubly remarkable considering the extremely large hit to their net worth in the 2007-08 financial debacle.

• Under the EYV/WP plan, immigrants would save money on legal bills, a significant portion of which are from charlatans or incompetents.

• Employers who have abused illegal immigrants, sometimes simply refusing to pay them, would lose their leverage with reform.

Supporting Information: Political Factors

• In addition to the political aspects relevant to every aspect of immigration reform, Republicans have a specific fear. At present, Latinos represent only 12% of eligible voters (same as that of African-Americans). However, millennials—who are likely to become increasingly active on the political front– represent 44% of Latino voters, compared with only 27% of white voters. Most importantly, this is a coming-of-age phenomenon, i.e. is not dependent on immigration reform or future immigration trends. One million Hispanics reach voting age annually.

• According to Pew Hispanic Research, in 1994, only 31% thought that immigrants strengthened the economy, whereas 63% regarded them as burdens. Today, the numbers have flipped: 59% say “strengthen” and only 33% say “burden.”

• Ignoring big differences between Republican and Democrat respondents, overall 75% of those surveyed want to figure out a way to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the USA; 62% are against an enhanced border wall.

• In 1995, white public high school graduates were 73% of the total; the 2012 number was 57%, and the projection for 2025 is 51%. Minority babies now exceed white; by 2039, minorities will be more than half of the working age population. Anti-immigration spokespeople are right to be fearful – if their true issue is the spectre of an inevitable erosion in white power.

• The border with Mexico extends for 2,000 miles. A survey of those physically closest to the wall indicated they wanted more customs, not border, agents. Interestingly, maybe even counterintuitively, private investors put up $120 million to build the CrossBorderXpress, a land bridge connecting San Diego and the Tijuana International Airport.  They charge $12 per flier, have high tech screening, and apparently a customer-friendly attitude, judging from the reviews thus far.

• The late, lamented Senate approach to immigration reform in 2013 included a ten-year trip to a green card, then three more years for citizenship. It involved fines, fees, and payment of back taxes (not sure how they would have been calculated) in order to gain “probationary legal status.” All reform is destined to be complicated; that criticism was immediately applied to the 2007 bipartisan Kennedy-McCain bill, and then, as always seems to be the case, squabbling broke out along political party lines.

Supporting Information: Anticipated Criticisms

• Some will ask, “what about the issue of rewarding illegal behavior?” What exactly is this reward? Is it that a family is allowed to remain intact, ostensibly a social policy in which Americans believe? Is it that our economy benefits? Is it that future illegal immigrants will be immediately/automatically deported?

Remember too that many illegal immigrants are here because of our contribution to their country’s travails, the most prominent historical examples being the American consumption of drugs imported from Colombia and the fact that the United States long ago simply took a big chunk of Mexico without anything resembling a democratic process. P.S. Overall, if more immigrants are brought into and stimulate incremental growth of the economy, it is existing citizens who are rewarded.

• It goes without saying, but to cross the t’s and dot the i’s, criminals (felony level) would be deported, and the head of household re-defined. Equally true is that a head of household (who could be a solo adult) and anybody else who refuses both the EYV and WP routes should be deported. Those who advocate completely open borders should acknowledge the impracticality of their position. The EYV and WP plan is open enough.

• How to address the issue of implementation of eligibility for the Affordable Care Act (Healthcare.gov) is an important topic, made moreso by the long list of rules and regulations pertinent to that program. There is no question that legal immigrants have benefited from Obamacare.

At present, illegal immigrants represent about 25% of the 30 million people who are uninsured. To the extent that immigration reform means more people in better-paying jobs that provide health insurance, there is a positive impact on a micro basis. Illegal immigrants are currently heavy users of Emergency Rooms as their primary doctors, financially relying on various Charity Care provisions of existing state and local laws.

This adverse situation could be alleviated when legal status enhances the chances of somebody in the family having comprehensive health insurance. How the aggregate of all the changes that would ensue from immigration reform affects the total health bill is impossible to estimate, but it is healthcare that is the issue, not illegal immigrants.

• Because numerous welfare programs require a green card, many illegal immigrants cannot access them. An expected initial increase in use of the system as a result of the EYV-WP plan is a manageable negative, all things considered.

• People who have been caught in the labyrinth of immigration regulations for many years will undoubtedly resent relative newcomers who had nothing going legally but who suddenly have a clear path to legitimacy. It’s true but not a meaningful criticism of the plan; one should not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

• Perhaps the opponents of today’s immigration dilemma being resolved in this fashion think the recipients would pass on the opportunity to end their status uncertainty and instead, with $10,000 briefly gathered together in their hands, would use the money for other purposes. For example, they might:  buy gifts for their extended family here and elsewhere … make a big down payment on a retirement residence in their “home country” … pay off debts … purchase additional lottery tickets.

Under the proposed plan, given an unprecedented opportunity to achieve legal status for himself and 6 others, if an illegal immigrant head of household did not apply for an EYV  or elect the WP route,  he would be deported. His action would go completely against the objective of keeping a household together. (Presumably, in said household filing unit, there would definitionally be another head of household who would do the right thing!)

Summation

Those who are anti-immigration undoubtedly will find much that is objectionable under the EYV-WP plan. They would also find it quite troublesome to see their grocery and other bills rise materially if 11 million people were shipped out.

Simultaneously, immigration advocates will find certain of the above thoughts unappealing.  I would ask them to cite their recent legislative successes at the federal level—I believe the number is zero. All the action has been through Executive Orders, the life of which is not guaranteed. And when a state has moved ahead on immigration issues, it has been accused of usurping a federal function. In truth, it would be interesting if states did have the right to experiment with different approaches to immigration reform. Maybe this would be a way to get past our all-or-almost-nothing situation when it comes to Congressional legislation.

Immigration law, as always, is an ad hoc mixture of provisions having no basis in a particular set of cultural values or moral precepts. Therefore, the above multi-page set of suggestions should not be attacked because they might seem to some to be crass or calculating or some other non-operative adjective divorced from the reality of documentation challenges.

Collectively, they might even be a practical idea, rooted in a set of specifics that establish clarity on how one achieves legal status –a clarity that removes the threat of deportation, the single most important concern within the immigrant community.

Basically, the plan says to current illegal immigrants: “We want you. We need you. We are not sending you back. Choose one of the designations we are offering. Show us commitment. Think through your family situation. You give us a response; we give you a response. Only those who decline to provide a response are deported. It’s a good deal for everybody.”

Deep thinkers, who presumably are represented within the ranks of both pro and anti-immigration representatives, might regard this essay as akin to reading the typically large and complex menu of a New Jersey diner. However, there is a big caveat: one cannot select a variety of desserts and call it a meal. The set of suggestions, and revisions thereof, must be balanced in order to be palatable to all concerned. 

Food for thought!

Written in the Spring of 2016 (an admission: some of the numbers above might be considered placeholders; my staff is limited you know)

 

GOALBALL: YOU DON’T HAVE TO SEE IT TO BELIEVE IT!

This is an indoor game played with a ball. There are three players to a side, two wings and the center, who is the primary defensive stopper. The objective of the game is for the thrower, who can be any of the three players, to hurl the ball, in a bowling motion which cannot exceed the waist of the thrower, into the net of the opposite team.  The net is five feet high and covers the width of the court.

The ball of goalball is solid, the size of a basketball, but without air pressure. It feels surprisingly heavy; as I held it briefly in a bowling position, I could envision my long-dormant tennis elbow coming back to life after a single game of goalball. Skilled throwers have a portfolio of deliveries, as does a pitcher in baseball: straight, curved, spinning, fast, slow-all with a quick or methodical wind­ up. Their control is amazing. In contrast, when later in the day, I attempted to flip an errant ball up to me with my toe, the ball instead made a vivid impression on my toe, then climbed a neat little arc and landed in the empty garbage can behind me. Only subsequently did I notice that practiced attendees stopped the ball by propping their entire foot up at a 45-degree angle.

Being slow of mind at times, I still did not pay the ball proper respect. When I put my hand in front of a ball headed to the front row of the bleachers, the ball readily overpowered the concept, and another part of my body was left with a memory of the ball which these players routinely fling back and forth along the floor, most typically being stopped only by the body of the other side. I am told that after the game, there is ice and ibuprofen as a regimen for many of the players, and the necessity is readily understandable. On a rare occasion, a more serious drug might be utilized, but the anti-doping rules of the goalball governing body are extremely strict, far tougher than Major League Baseball for instance.

Each player is outfitted with dark glasses, checked by the referee at the beginning of the game and at the start of the second half.  The referee calls out-of-bounds with a confidence far above his or her peers in any other sport; nonetheless, this does not prevent some players seeking to prevent a goal from sliding so vigorously, because the call has not yet been made, that they crash into the stands, which to be sure are not populated with any celebrities who might have their expensive threads soiled by the sweat of an athlete. When throwing, the hurler typically starts at the goal line, touching the bar as a reference point for the run-up prior to delivering the ball in a bowling motion.

Tape is placed on the basketball court appropriately to cue goalball players as to their positioning. Perhaps that is an innovation which basketball itself could adopt, to enable three-point shooters to never commit the unpardonable sin of being a foot too close to the hoop and thereby reducing the value of their shot by one-third. The court has six sections to it, including a taped line behind which the thrower must release the ball. Halves are seven minutes, except in the semifinals and finals or in international play, when they are ten minutes in duration.  A flip of the coin determines which team gets to choose whether to defend or throw on the game’s initial play.

The defensive movements are balletic, the left and right wings often sliding inward to the court while the critically important center moves in either direction based on her calibration of the ball’s direction, speed, and spin, if any, all of which triggers decisions on when to slide, whether to go completely low or stay relatively high, or in-between. Hockey and soccer goalies go throw a similar thought process. In goalball, the wings are positioned wide and a few feet behind the center’s line in order that they do not crack heads when all three hit the floor simultaneously, which is the normal defensive event.

Many of the goals, which are hard to come by in any event, are scored on bouncers, where the center has not stopped the ball cleanly and completely and it jumps up and over the sliding wingman behind her. If the center is slight of build, and deficient of proper technique, the risk of bouncers, and therefore goals, goes up.

At times, a team will go to the Australian I formation of tennis, with the center behind the thrower. This can backfire, when a quick return, sans wind-up, finds the gap in the defense caused by the out­ of-position thrower. On offense, a double-tap on the floor indicates, “I am ready to throw, give me the darn ball.” It’s a trifle more subtle than the open NBA shooter waving his arms and impatiently demanding the ball from his point guard.

As I watched, I could not help remembering playing in the kitchen of my natal home, more specifically the small rectangular open space adjacent to the table. We were on the floor, sprawling in every direction to prevent the little rubber ball, which we slapped with an open hand, from hitting the wall behind us. My little brother and I were playing our own version of goalball, as did most kids before the advent of video games and a television in every bedroom.

At times, when the action became a little heated, mom had to act the role of referee. Here at the goalball tournament, there are two well-trained referees for each game; they are serious, quick, clear, crisp, concise, communicative, and athletic. There is no show, no preening so that the audience will notice there are referees at work, as there is in the NBA and elsewhere. In fact, the referees assist the players because their “out” calls help the throwers to adjust their deliveries. Numerous volunteers, both on the court and at the officials table, are also involved in making the goalball games run smoothly. As an example, when a ball goes out of bounds, the volunteer returns the ball to play by dropping it on the floor at the feet of the nearest player.

There is a three-minute break at halftime, enough for six 30-second spots if there were any advertisers for this unique sport, but absent such commercial intrusion, the time is used to wipe the sweat, get a drink, talk some strategy, and get ready for the return to the court. Periodically, coaches will call quickie time-outs, provide liquid refreshment to the troops and discuss strategy. Shot distribution, and angles thereof, may be charted if staff is available to do so.

The  Women’s Tournament

It was Saturday, April 2, and I am at the Haddon Township High School in Westmont, New Jersey near Cherry Hill to cover the Northeast Regional Goalball Tournament. At 7:55am, the women’s gym is already buzzing with activity, the athletes warming up for the first contest of this round-robin tournament. The uniforms are colorful, the team names innovative (Chaos, Glasa Tsunami, etc.), and the names of the players are sometimes, but not always, stitched on the back. Both throwing and sliding are being practiced, the prospectively injurious effect of the latter being cushioned by kneepads and protective leg gear, somewhat akin to the way certain major league baseball players come armed to the plate. To be more on point, the similarity would be to hockey goalies, and, in fact, some of the gear is identical to that worn in hockey. The lights in the gym are bright and the electronic scoreboard is ready to function, as presumably are the battery of officials at the scorers’ bench.

The Glasa Tsunami team from Illinois breaks from its pregame huddle with the same shout of “defense” which rocks the crowd, in most years anyway, at Madison Square Garden. The Chaos shout is indecipherable, as befits the team name; actually, it is from the allegedly staid city of Kalamazoo, Michigan. After a few minutes of conventional, and hard, throwing, the team’s  number one thrower, Olympian Asya Miller (aka She-Ra), does a 360-degree turn (on the floor,  not in the air ala the NBA’s Vince Carter) and unleashes a viciously spinning, bouncing ball  which almost eludes the sprawling defender, whose save ensures a 0-0 tie at  halftime.

Immediately upon resuming play, there is a penalty called against a Tsunami thrower for releasing her ball above her waist, and the offending team must defend its goal with a lone defender. Miller cleverly goes to the outermost line and throws a totally straight ball, since the defender has lined up in the middle as required; nonetheless, the stop is made, at the last moment, and the crowd, okay the handful of fans, murmurs in appreciation. Turnabout is fair play, and a penalty is called, but this time, the bulky, less athletic Tsunami defender cannot control the little bounce which occurs after her initial stop, and the first goal of the game is registered. A minute later, at full-strength, she commits the same error, and her coach immediately brings in a substitute.  Chaos wins over a tough opponent, 2-0.

It is game two and the tall Colorado Bandit center, Olympian Jeni (Jennifer) Armbruster, after barely two minutes have elapsed, whips a ball down the middle of the court with a ferocity that is unstoppable. Her power belies the fact that she recently was out for a month with shoulder pain, which she believes is a delayed residual of the problems which necessitated shoulder surgery three years ago. Shortly thereafter, a screwball delivery from her wingmate finds its way into the Western Michigan net and the rout is on, the final score being 9-1.

Jeni has been playing goalball for over 15 years, having moved into the sport after playing basketball, as is true of many goalballers. Born in Taiwan to a military family, she gets restless after three years anywhere and is about to move to Canada from the Olympian residential training facility in Colorado Springs. She has her Master’s and will be pursuing a Massage Therapist License. In Michigan, she helped start a group of sports camps; many of the United States team members were trained at those camps, which have been endorsed by the Department of Education and replicated in a dozen states.

There is hope for a more formal feeder system in goalball, from camps like Jeni’s to state to   region to national, so that, as envisioned by the new Goalball President, Kevin Szott (who wants  to be compared with Yankee owner George Steinbrenner), there would be many, many more people competing for the six Olympic team spots. Goalball now is into the regimen of any other athletic endeavor: drills, weightlifting, cardiovascular workouts; stamina must be high to endure the 4-5 games a day which are normal in tournaments. To balance and augment the competitive environment, Goalball is planning to introduce a draft in 2006, enabling less well-stocked teams   to select players from a designated pool of available athletes.

There is also a move afoot to enable coaches to be vocal during play, on the assumption their   sage advice would be helpful to their players, who presumably would listen with both ears,   unlike their counterparts in other sports stocked with millionaire professional athletes.  The  Florida coach, the bright and affable Jim Crozier, is one of those in favor of more   communication, and encourages his players to talk to each other as much as possible. Like many goalball coaches, he backed into his position (his regular job is “orientation and mobility specialist”) and got hooked  even though the hours become long when you are a counselor, father figure, and coach of young players. If I put my compensation on a per-hour basis, it would be about a nickel,”joked Jim.

New Jersey has taken the court against his Florida team. On her first throw, errant though it is, you could see a different skill level; the player is Olympian Lisa Banta, who was an alternate on the national team in 1996, and a full-fledged team member since. Unfortunately, on the return throw, the ball hit her sliding teammate, bounced, struck the sliding Lisa, and continued into the goal. Shortly, there was another penalty situation, and she stepped confidently to her mark and threw a straight fastball to tie the score.  The home court New Jersey fans hooted and hollered,   as they did two minutes later when she scored again. The enthusiasm is unusual, as most of the fans are quiet at all times, as everybody must be during play  itself.

A minute later, another penalty, another goal. Like Duke University basketballers, the blue-clad New Jersyans reach down and touch the floor to mark their defensive positioning. Unlike Duke, they keep both hands down until making a definitive defensive movement. Up 4-1 at halftime, Lisa comes out throwing lefthanded, to save strain on her right shoulder as she is only 75% back from the latest in her series of injuries and rehab efforts. Like any athlete returning to the court,  she may be healed, but is not fully-ready for game competition. Moreover, the team chemistry, with Lisa as leader, has to be relearned. She switches back to righthanded after Florida scores, then back to lefty.  Occasionally, she tosses a very softly-thrown ball as a change of  pace.

With but a second to go in the contest, Florida ties the score at 4-4 and the unrestrained Crozier, leaps in jubilation; there is a busload of Floridians, as they have both a women’s and men’s team in the tournament, so there is much joy in the stands over this remarkable comeback by the only all- high school squad in the tournament. Lisa slams the floor in frustration, which is heightened    when she fails to get off a final shot (or she was irritated because she could have held the earlier ball longer, to the limit of the 10-second shot clock, which would have deprived Florida of time for their final throw).  Her open mouth  reveals  a red, white, and blue guard for her teeth.

Between games, Lisa is chewing on an energy bar, or is she stewing over the blown lead versus Florida. Itis difficult to tell from her expressionless face, a stark contrast from the perpetual smiles and chatter among the Florida contingent of 27 players, who are from a school where 89% of the graduates go on to college. Excluding this, the audience remains quiet, with cell phones turned off and but a solitary photographer, who takes pictures very selectively.

Starting its second game, the Chaos’ chant has a refrain, “you can’t handle it”. Asya promptly opens the game with a quick goal. She is given a chance a chance to pad what had become a 3-0 lead when a player on the opposing team, from Minnesota, committed a violation by throwing three consecutive times (no feeding the hot man in this sport). Her throw was out-of­ bounds before it even crossed half-court, an uncharacteristic miscue by the tattooed (barbed  wire and cross) Miller.  The final is 5-0, Chaos.

In two games, the Chaos center, Olympian Nicky (Nicole) Buck seemingly has not missed a ball at her defensive center position. Her technique of promptly folding her body over the ball, instead of rigidly providing a ramp that the ball can come up and over, has been flawless. I am told she also has exceptional hearing, but whether this is physical or a function of proper positioning and concentration, is unknown. In talking with her, she corrected my observation about her not missing a ball, in fact, one had eluded her but it had been covered by one of her wings. “That’s my job” (i.e., to stop the throw), which she did with exuberance and great skill, as befits the name on her uniform, Wonderwoman. She constantly called out information for her wings; away from the game, she talked with everybody, at all times, even to the point of being asked by the referee to pipe down on the sidelines.  In the Fall, Nicky, who at 20 years of age has been playing goalball for six years,  will return to Western Michigan University  from Colorado Springs. The third member of Chaos, Susie, is cute as a button, with beautiful braided hair and a sunshine disposition.  Her throwing strength is nonexistent, but this deficiency is  offset by a fearless attitude toward  defending her corner of the goal from her wing position.

When a player on the sidelines doffs her sweaty jersey to reveal a simple black sports bra underneath, there is no peer or crowd reaction, no Nike representative waving a checkbook. She simply replaces her game jersey with a dry version, then with equal aplomb outfits her dog with the harness he had worn to the  tournament.

Colorado opens its second game, against Florida, with a hard throw from Armbruster which not only gets into the goal but also dislodges a piece of tape which is helping to hold the net in place. With seconds to go in the first half, she scores on a completely opposite shot, a soft ball which was easily stoppable except all three defenders had been faked out and there were no bodies in front of the throw. In the second half,Jeni scores on a left-handed  bouncer.  In none of these  cases does Jeni reveal any emotion.  Colorado wins handily, 7-1.

In Lisa’s second game, versus Tsunami, New Jersey again starts behind, giving up an avoidable goal almost immediately. Shortly thereafter, the coach (who is not allowed to yell out suggestions during play) calls a time-out to talk with her threesome, which does not help as another goal is registered against them as soon as play is resumed. Two more center-deflected bouncer goals and New Jersey is hopelessly behind at 4-0. To add insult to injury, after Lisa moved to center from wing, she is called for a penalty and can not stop the ensuing shot.  Tsunami wins   6-1.

In Lisa’s last game of the day, versus Western Michigan, she came out firing, all right-handed , as New Jersey needed a win and a lot of goals, both necessary to overcome the first game late collapse against Florida which had produced a round-robin tie standing between the two. New Jersey was aided considerably by an officially-mandated equipment change for the opponent’s center, which removed an important and unfair advantage the young woman had enjoyed in her prior games.  Lisa first scored on a complete crosscourt shot, the ball just  barely squeezing into  the corner of the net, then fired in a straight one.  The score was quickly Lisa 5, Western  Michigan 0. At the end, the team Florida had beaten 4-1 succumbed to New Jersey 9-0, putting  the latter into the semifinals with Tsunami, Colorado, and   Chaos.

Like her fellow Olympians, Lisa is moving out of Colorado Springs to seek a different environment. In this case, she will go to Tuscon tobe near her boyfriend, Jake, an enthusiastic   and likable guy who is totally into the Goalball scene and wants to get a Master’s in Special Education from the University of Arizona. There, Lisa will continue her four hours/day workout routine, with basketball, one of her favorite sports, thrown in as a break activity. This is an   athlete who, when her ACL blew out, did her lifting and hand bike riding while supported by crutches. In Arizona, Lisa will also seek to put to good use her Bachelor’s in Criminal Justice; ideally she would be “working with young people before bad decisions are made because they are oblivious to the opportunities available to them.”

Unlike many athletes whose names are in front of us every day on ESPN, Lisa wants to make a real difference in the lives of others. Perhaps here, she is following in the footsteps of her mother, who successfully fought for Lisa’s rights in the school system in Boonton, New Jersey, an experience which Lisa looks back upon with fond memories.  She believes that sometimes mothers of her peers are overly protective, not wanting their children to get hurt.  What happens is that they get deprived of the joys  of participating in sports and being supported by  newfound friends who face the same challenges.

Meanwhile, Olympian teammate Asya Miller is preparing for the last game of day one by  listening and moving to the tunes on her I-Pod. The crowd for the goalball match-up would fit in one end row of the NCAA Basketball Final Four taking place at the same time in St. Louis, but  the family camaraderie is comparable with anything demonstrated in the latter. There is also a steady stream of boys/young men wandering in from their court, which at this school is downstairs, and the girls/young women  gravitate in their direction, or is it vice-versa.  They  laugh and flirt and talk about past games and future match-ups and jostle  their friends so they   can take a seat in the first row to absorb the action taking place on the court. A couple of the contestants have brought their pet dogs to the game; the latter are incredibly well-behaved, seemingly totally devoted to their owners.

In this preliminary round-robin version of the championship game, which would be between Colorado and Chaos as the oddsmakers had predicted based on the last several years of these two teams alternating in winning the national title, Asya’s bullet  breaks the unsurprising scoreless tie with thirty seconds left before intermission.. In the second half, Chaos scores, and its 2-0 lead stands until 1:39 is left, when Asya is called for a high ball (release above the waist) and cannot block the ensuing straight throw, delivered with a fancy wind-up by Jeni. With 26 seconds left, Colorado calls a time-out to set up its final plays. To no avail, as at 0:13, Asya throws a bouncing crosscourt shot that finds the net for a 3-1Chaos win. She pumps her fist in triumph, then removes her black skull cap, which nicely matches her bandana and sneakers, to reveal bleached blonde hair.

The Women’s Final Four

It says 8am on the Sunday morning clock, but on the bodies, it is 7am, reflecting the overnight loss of an hour. A monsoon has pounded the area, including the steel roof of the gym, with enough water to float a boat. It is the day after the death of Pope Paul II. Nonetheless, everybody is ready to go. It is tip-off time for the Final Four of Goalball, unimpeded by any commercial messages or other media  imperatives.

In the opener, Colorado systematically beats Tsunami 2-0 on an Armbruster penalty shot and an own goal. Inthe second semifinal, Chaos goes up 3-0 on New Jersey in the first half and   promptly removes Asya to rest her arm for the anticipated  championship game.  She never has   to return  as Chaos easily triumphs,  5-1.

It is, as anticipated, Colorado versus  Chaos for the Goalball Regional  Championship.

The Chaos cheer, as the players  break from their pregame huddle, mentions every team member by name and then adds, for all, in case anybody had  forgotten  their challenge, “you  can’t handle it.” As they go to their positions, Nicky implores her teammates, “no freebies!

Nicky, who normally could talk to a lamppost, had become relatively quiet before the ultimate game, and as the contest began, she was more serious than at any time during the tournament.   The always quiet Susie showed her own form of concentration with a demure, but negative, hand gesture after a throw of hers was called out almost as it left her hand. When Asya was about to take her third consecutive throw, which as noted is not allowed, Nicky loudly called her off, saving a penalty shot which would probably have resulted in an Armbruster goal for Colorado. Repeatedly, Nicky’s forceful sliding stops took her into the vicinity of first-row fans. When Susie saved balls which were wide into the corner, an area which the center has difficulty covering, Nicky  told her, “you  are the Queen!”

Jeni attempted some quick throws, hoping to catch Nicky, Asya, and Susie out of position, but the trio stopped them all. A single goal by the always dangerous Asya was the only scoring as the game wound down. With 0:44 remaining, Colorado called a time-out to set up a play; after it failed, another time-out was called at 0:31. Finally, at 0:18, Colorado made a substitution, its third stoppage of the clock. With seconds left, Chaos rolled a slow ball, and time expired as it made its journey down the court. Chaos again were the Champions.

The Men’s Championship

When I arrived after the conclusion of the women’s tournament, the teams from New Jersey and Florida had just finished regulation time tied at 3-3. The first three-minute sudden death session produced no goals, but a vivid awareness that the men threw significantly harder and covered more of the court with their larger bodies, which they also position more into the court to cut down on the available angles to the throwers . Acrobatic 360-degree shots were common. They also switched positions more readily, attempting to create sudden mismatches, where maybe a hard, spinning ball would be unplayable by the other side.

With 15 seconds left, a bouncing ball goes up and over, rather than into, the New Jersey goal, and half the gym is able to resume breathing.  Still 3-3.

Toward the end of the second three-minute sudden death session, it remained 3-3 as New Jersey called time-out at 0:10. A well-designed play proved fruitless, and now it was Florida’s turn to call time-out, at 0.3.6″, but its play was thwarted as well.

On to the shoot-out, where each of four players (the three already on the court plus one substitute) has a chance to score against a single defender. Florida’s top thrower bombed in a shot right off the bat to make it 4-3, and the Sunshine State contingent went crazy. New Jersey failed in its attempt to match, and repeated that lack of success with its second and third throwers. Now it was up to its substitute, a young-looking, clean-shaven kid last seen flirting in the stands with one of the high school student volunteers.  The chants of the New Jerseyans are matched by the chants of the Floridians.

Super Sub throws, and scores! New Jersey fans stomp their feet and roar their delight. Now, can he stop the last Florida throw and preserve the 4-4 tie.  He does!

Itis on to the sudden death shoot-out; the first team in a one-on-one competition to score wins. The New Jersey thrower looks like a poet refugee from an Irish bar, but when he uncorks his throw, it  is clear he knows what he is doing. Goal! 5-4 for New Jersey. Pandemonium! Now, can the young lad put his body in front of the expected 360-degree bullet from the imposing Floria thrower. Hearts are pounding, including those of first-time observers. He does! Championship to New Jersey! The hero is mobbed by everyone. Alas, the highlight of the men’s goalball championship was not to be seen on ESPN, which is still unaware of this exciting sport.

Chaos and New Jersey-the deserving champions  of the Northeast  Regional Goalball  Tournament.

Author’s Note: I hope from this description of the action involved in the game of goalball, that you, probably a first-time reader of anything relating to goalball, can visualize the action of this athletic endeavor and will want to check it out for yourself and your friends when there is a tournament in your area.

P.S. Did I mention that goalball players are legally blind and that the ball has bells inside it.

 

 

 

 

 

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A COUPLE OF DOZEN WAYS IN WHICH THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IS A FRAUD

Fraud: deceit, trickery, cheating, intentional deception

*The high school graduate should be able to assume that his diploma means he is ready for college, if that is to be his path. Unfortunately, it does not; college readiness is a totally different matter.

*Tons of scholarships are predicated on GPA levels. The latter say nothing about academic rigor.

*Colleges may be accredited, but they can do anything they want to. There is no accountability.

*The cost of college is a shell game; its perpetrators want you to watch the tuition number while elsewhere they are jacking up a long list of fees having little or no basis in identifiable costs.

*Can this marketing approach possibly be credible: “get a Master’s by Tuesday (admittedly a slight exaggeration) and you will instantly have a high-paying job.”

*Sorry about that, the college has oversold its classroom seats. You will be taking this course on-line in your dormitory room.

*The professor is not keen on teaching; he or she would prefer doing their research and writing their books, which they will require in their classes, even when not used.

*The high school, because of budgetary restraints, has to cut back on gym and the creative arts. This restraint does not apply to the football program.

*Let’s keep kids in ESL, even when they could test out. It’s easier for us to not move them.

*These students are uncontrollable; let’s classify them. No need to examine the classroom management  inadequacies of the teacher.

*Okay, sharp eyes; you are right. That three-hour college class is actually not three hours; it is less.

*The message that permeates 92.5% of all high schools is that every single individual must go to college: prima facie deceitful.

*Colleges are proclaiming their desire for more socioeconomic diversity; just ask them and they will tell you. However, if pushed, they will admit that they can only handle a certain number of students requiring big tuition discounts, aka institutional scholarships.

*Colleges encourage their students to be self-reflective, alas a trait lost on colleges themselves as they balloon their cost structures with ever more administrative positions.

*If you want to see a college protect that quaint concept of freedom of speech, try to book a right-of-political-center speaker and see the school’s doors shut and their ideals tabled.

*Unbiased international standards indicate the American education approach is not successful. Therefore, the standards must be rejected.

*Maybe that AP credit earned in high school transfers to the actual prospective college, but the high school cannot be sure, regardless of what it says to the student.

*Ah yes, all public two-year college credits (in New Jersey, e.g.) by law must transfer to all public four-year colleges. No, better to assume a 10% haircut.

*The area of for-profit colleges and their defects has been well plowed.  Suffice it to say that some of the criticism is, uh … fraudulent!

*Colleges now provide cost-of-attendance and net price calculator data. Did these bastions of education do so voluntarily – not remotely.

*And now colleges are crying “you don’t understand” when analysts couple the cost of college, inclusive of debt, with the earning power associated with the major and the degree.

Author’s Notes:

English professors will criticize these observations because there are variations in the writer’s “voice.” Thank goodness people no longer care about writing.

Foreign language teachers may have to consult the archives; once upon a very long time ago, I took Latin and a few words actually stuck. Now if only I had taken a useful language.

Mathematicians may observe that actually there are not two dozen entries above. I can only say that I tried hard and the results felt good to me; isn’t that more important than accuracy.  If readers would send me additional entries about education fraud, maybe the title could match the true count.

 

 

 

Woven throughout these numbers, for the few who care to drill down on their political analysis, are implicitly many of the reasons for the stunning level of support for Presidential candidate Trump. The affluent liberal media and think tank elites of both coasts seem to have completely missed the multiple emotional connections, the angst that is evident in the America they simply fly over.

Median Age: Hispanic, 28 … Black, 33 … Asian, 36 … White 43. For Hispanics born in the USA, median age is 19, slightly less than half of the foreign-born median of 41 (Pew Hispanic Research). The big growth rate for whites is in those over 65 years of age. Of Hispanics under 18, over two-thirds are Mexican. By 2055, Asian immigration will exceed that of Hispanics, who at present are 70% of illegal immigrants.  Millennials and younger among Hispanics are 58% of that population, versus 39% for the white population.

2065E Population: White, 46% … Hispanic, 24% … Asian, 14% … Black, 13%. For approximately every two-parent household, there will be a single-parent household.

2050E Population: 58% workers, 23% kids, 19% elderly. In 2005, the numbers were 63%, 25%, and 12%.

Kindergartners: 53% White, 25% Hispanic, 13% Black, and 9% Other.

Mothers: 54% have a college degree, up from 41% in 1990. The median age for first marriage is 26 (women) and 28 (men), five years later than a generation earlier. The pursuit of higher education and greater opportunities in the workplace are the driving factors for delayed marriages (and motherhood).

Teenage Birth Rate: In 1991, the rate was 61.8 per 1,000 female teenagers; by 2014, the rate had dropped to 24.2 per 1,000. In New Jersey, the recent white rate was 4.8; the black rate, 27.4, and the Hispanic rate, 31.3.

Life Expectancy for the demographic with the greatest longevity: non-Hispanic white women, 81.1 years; non-Hispanic white men, 76.5, both of which declined slightly in 2014. In 1960, the overall expectancy was 69.7, and it rose consistently for fifty years, so any reversal is of interest. Black life expectancy is 75.6 years, compared with 79.0 years for whites; this gap (Pew) is the “smallest in history.” Fewer suicides and homicides, plus reduced fatality rates from cancer and AIDS, are cited as the reasons for the improvement.

Suicide Rates: In the 21^st century, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, every age group except those 75 or older (who already had the highest rate) has demonstrated an increased desire to end their life prematurely. This is true of both men and women, albeit the latter is from a much smaller base than that of men.

Religion: Within fifty years, Christians and Muslims will each have about 30% of worldwide population, reflecting significant growth in the ranks of Muslims.

Income: Both high and low sectors are growing; the middle class, historically the engine behind growth in living standards for Americans, will continue to decline.

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Many undocumented/first generation/minority students come from countries which have highly structured national education systems. In contrast, the American system can fairly be labeled as chaotic. There are significantly different – and confusing — roles with respect to funding and accountability at the federal, state, and local school district levels.

Specifically with respect to the topic of this FAQ, regardless of the amount of website information on all matters educational, there is insufficient guidance at many high schools concerning undocumented students and what they can expect if and when they apply to college.

Clarity is especially important because there are three distinct, but interrelated, pieces of the puzzle: access – does the college accept undocumented students; rate – what tuition cost category is relevant to the student; and financial aid – what is available.

Below is an attempt to address this informational and analytical shortcoming.

Readers are invited to provide suggestions on how the FAQ can be improved.

(Q) Isn’t there a legal restriction on K-12 schools asking students about documentation?

(A) Yes, they cannot do so. However, in no way should this hinder a school from providing information to students who self-identify as undocumented; the role of the school, particularly the guidance counseling department, is to assist all students in pursuing their educational goals.

(Q) When should undocumented students become aware of the college process?

(A) Ninth grade is the starting point for the academic record that is presented to a college; all students, irrespective of status, should be thinking ahead at this age level.

(Q) Access to College: If I am undocumented, can I apply to any school?

(A) Yes.

(Q) Will they ask if I am undocumented?

(A) This may sound like splitting a hair, but they should not ask directly.

(Q) But they ask for a social security number, don’t they?

(A) Yes. You can leave it blank, or, if you have DACA, you can put in that social security number. If blank, the school may insert your student ID number.

(Q) What happens then?

(A) You may or may not be accepted, but that decision by the college is, on the surface anyway, based on a whole set of relatively understandable factors (high school GPA, standardized test results, personal essay, etc.) and not connected to documentation. That is the theory; in practice, if a school discerns the prospective student’s lack of documentation, it may assume financial difficulties in attending the school, so why bother accepting said student.

(Q) Are colleges becoming more or less accommodating?

(A) Enrollment at many colleges has declined, leading some of them to react with policies that can include flexibility on the issue of documentation (e.g. charging an “international fee” but not classifying the student as international).

(Q) Tuition Rate: OK, what if I am accepted?

(A) If you are attending a public college, you need to know whether legislation says that the tuition rate for undocumented students must be the same as that for resident students (this is the case in New Jersey and New York, among other states). Note there is typically a geographical residency requirement—you must live in the state for a stipulated period of time to get the lower resident rate.

(Q) What if I am attending a private college?

(A) In a direct sense, documentation is not a factor; however, see the aid comment below.

(Q) Are there other wrinkles in the rate area?

(A) Yes, you should be careful not to be considered an “international” student, because the rate for that category is much higher.

(Q) In terms of college, what is unique about having the DACA designation?

(A) You may be required to sign an affidavit stating that you intend to become a legal resident; since this is something you devoutly wish to happen, this is easy to sign. Besides, it is necessary to get the resident tuition rate.

(Q) Financial aid: what can I get?

(A) The biggest negative is that you are not eligible for FAFSA-based aid: the Pell Grant and related federal loans.

(Q) What about scholarships from the colleges?

(A) Public colleges are restricted, but sometimes can find monies funders have provided specifically for the support of undocumented students. Private schools frequently offer quite sizable scholarships. All other things being equal, this would cause a rush of undocumented students to these colleges. However, the absence of conventional financial aid (see above) means that the required money from the student is often still too large to be affordable.

(Q) Is there outside money available to help undocumented students get further education?

(A) Increasingly the answer is yes. Different foundations (e.g., TheDreamUS Scholarship) and individuals (e.g., Mark Zuckerberg of Facebook) have come to the conclusion that our economy and society need more educated individuals and it is silly to have barriers that prevent undocumented students from getting their degrees, pursuing their careers, and contributing to their new home country.

(Q) What is the most favorable state for undocumented students?

(A) Interestingly, it is California, which passed its own version of a DREAM Act (AB540) in 2010, covering both rate and aid, access not being an issue. This is the same state that in 1994 passed anti-immigrant legislation, Proposition 187. Changed attitudes are possible!

(Q) Has DACA helped indirectly?

(A) Yes, with a stamped social security card (work authorization) students can obtain higher-paying jobs than those available in the underground/shadow economy. So they are better able to offset the absence of conventional financial aid.

(Q) General: Can I contact the college I am interested in and ask about their policies?

(A) Good luck. Colleges are notorious for slow or non-existent responses to telephone calls and e-mails alike. To add insult to injury, if the student does connect with a college representative, frequently the latter does not know his own school’s policies.

(Q) Are there other suggestions for the prospective undocumented college student?

(A) Because colleges, in my experience, can do almost anything they want to do, if you receive a “no” in making a request of a college official, then go ask a different official. If you receive a “yes,” get it confirmed, preferably from another person at the same school. When errors are made by the college representative, it is the student who suffers; the staffer’s life is unaffected.

(Q) What would be the impact if DAPA is upheld?

(A) With undocumented parents protected by DAPA from deportation, their resident children would be better able to focus on education.

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“Learning takes place when you are OUT of the comfort zone; the networking and live-action conversations are so important.”

Warning: this essay wanders more than a bit, so here for the impatient reader is the conclusion: there are no longitudinal metrics available to readily determine whether on-line higher education is en route to being a truly major delivery mechanism or instead will be viewed as basically a niche tool.

A Few Background Comments

Change in the overall educational arena has never been a process which would find its way into the consulting playbook of a Bain & Company, nor would it have been a chapter in Jack Welch’s famous binder for developing management talent at GE. Neither would it resonate well among the highly intelligent players at the Google ping pong tables.

Historically, for example, shifts in elementary, middle, and high school education have been episodic. Professors and experts at various non-practitioner locales would slay multiple trees in order to produce pedagogical dissertations, the result perhaps being the “New Math,” inexorably followed some years later by a learned discovery of all the flaws in the “New Math,” which then quietly was transformed into some type of modified approach (what else!). Subsequently, with sufficient passage of time so that prior errors in highly-paid thinking would not be so evident, there came the “New Math,” not to be confused with the prior curriculum of the same name.

Meanwhile, life in the classroom went on, as it did at the teachers colleges. Tenured teachers knew they would outlast any iteration of the “New Math” and hence could combine lip service and rolled eyes without serious impediment to either their job security or, in fact, to how they taught their classes. The aforementioned colleges, having no substantive connection to what took place in real world classes, could easily abide still another Ph.D thesis on “A Comparative Study of the New Math, Singapore Math, and the approach to Math by the Indigeneous Population of Nebraska.”

Describing the pathways of change at the higher education level is on the one hand, impossible–there are so many variations, and simple—each college/university has basically established its own path, its own blend of academic and non-academic offerings, with the metrics being rankings in the listings compiled by various publications (which the schools all “hate” of course), the ability to select students from a nice pile of applications, and the success of the perpetual fund-raising campaign. Missing until recently has been deep and public scrutiny of costs, graduation rates, and ultimately, life success rates.

Hopefully, somewhere in this contorted essay, there will be at least a conceptual linkage of the above comments to on-line higher education—after all, that is the subject of this essay– but first I have to take a break and go to Bernie’s Diner for something to eat. In the words of the famous Belgian detective, Hercule Poirot, “…to think, the stomach and the brain must be in harmony.’

At Bernie’s, I know that if the consumptive public has no taste for an item on the menu, it will not be there. Students should be so lucky; their reaction to educational innovations historically have almost not counted, even though they are the ones whose presumed appetite for education (and the statistical scorecard which becomes theirs) can be irreparably damaged by exposure for years on-end to non-productive curricula and teaching methods alike.

The K-12 school superintendent chefs may turn over in only a few years, but the educational meal was largely unchanged until a quarter-century ago, when the loose category called “educational reformers” appeared on the scene. Said individuals are not to be confused with the pedagogs within the system who have misused the term “reform” ever since the McGuffey Reader was removed from the public school curricula. The newer breed of reformers actually not only wants to do everything differently but to measure the results and make adjustments accordingly.

At the college level, change at the top has been triggered by unsatisfactory athletic results and unsuccessful fund-raising, which in many cases is saying the same thing. Before rocks get thrown at me, I am not referring to the elite universities who are caught up in the research/publish race even more than in apples-to-apples academic comparisons.  I mean a top place like Stanford would never be concerned with its football prowess, would it!

One line of thought therefore is that on-line education in general is the logical outgrowth of a screwy education industry change mechanism and the desire of many smart, highly motivated people to make the academic lives of students better, whatever that means.

Anyway, now that I am satiated—probably overly so– from a rewarding visit to Bernie’s, with luck I will be able to think more clearly about the subject at hand. Unfortunately, on-line higher education does not have the simple decision rules as a diner.

On-line Higher Education

Founded in 1976, the University of Phoenix came onto the scene as a completely on-line approach to higher education and a for-profit one at that. The conventional college/university system all but tarred and feathered these newcomers and their new-fangled method, demonstrating once again that the most illiberal segment of our society is often found on the nation’s campuses. Phoenix persevered, however, and actually grew quite substantially, peaking at around 400,000 students before somebody important, the Department of Education, had its eyes opened to the fact that the school had high drop-out rates, high debt levels for departed or graduated students, and high default and delinquent rates for said young people. Not good. The entire category of for-profit higher education providers is now subject to a rule which is summarized as the “ability to benefit:” does what the student pays for in his education equate to a sensible current/future financial obligation considering his chosen career.

Meanwhile, conventional non-profit purveyors of what is purportedly higher education are having nightmares, disguised as philosophical debates, about the unfolding trend to look at their august endeavors in a similar way. Attempts to hold them accountable for the way they run their college businesses are inevitably met with, “you do not understand,” overlooking—no, seeking to sweep aside—the fact that student debt is now about $1.2 trillion, which is above that of consumer debt, and 40% of recent graduates are either unemployed or working below their ostensible academic credentials.

Permeating the entire higher education system is the belief by many that socialization and networking are being “taught” well, but academics not so, which presents an employability problem. Employers not only value the generic skills of critical thinking capability, complex reasoning, and writing, but also what are called “field specific competencies” (source: “Aspiring Adults Adrift,” the follow-on to “Academically Adrift”). Bluntly put, employers do not trust that any academic credential, from high school diploma to Bachelor’s degree, means that the recipient actually knows how to do something.

Because of skepticism toward degrees per se, many big companies have reduced the number of campuses on which they recruit; moreover, they use strategies which aim at establishing a preliminary self-selection process. An example is having a three-day conference/workshop for prospective Bachelor’s graduates meeting certain criteria who are interested in working for a specific multinational company. In addition, it seems that companies are placing even more importance on whatever formal or informal training programs that are in-house. Simultaneously, they want a seat at the curriculum planning table of community colleges: public costs, private profit anyone!

Graduate School Level

To put the higher education dilemma in a different statistical box, at present, in the American graduate school system, 17% of all students are international; in the STEM sector, it is more than half (this is an immediate argument for immigration reform that speaks directly to our self-interest but that belongs in a separate essay). Of total student debt, about 40% is incurred at the graduate level, compared with only 14% of enrollees.

These data points could argue for changes in the graduate school cost/delivery mechanism, but at present there is not a clear connection between the two, even as there are signs that additional business marketing principles are coming to the fore. Whether business logic and on-line education should be conflated, as many are doing, at least conceptually, is a different story. More students served cannot be the metric; it has to be more educationally satisfied customers.

The Wonders of Technology

In a backwards way, because on-line education is light on socialization among students, it offers the opportunity to be more, not less, academically focused. Individual courses may have reached this standard, but there is no evidence that systematically this is happening.

Instead the primary appeal of on-line is convenience, not only for students, but for schools, professors, teachers, parents—with the assumption that everyone in the digital age associates all the cool “iDevices” with “learning,” with no need for prior or on-going analysis to validate the premise.

So it is now time to talk about technology, which might be considered the final, pivotal piece of whatever structural image befits the discussion.

This part is really simple: everybody knows that in today’s digital world, all things are possible short of slicing bread. If the gadget or app or website or whatever is doable, like really easy to accomplish and often really cheap, it must be good, beneficial, no problems attached. So roll it out. And do not cringe when more students use Twitter than can place Afghanistan on a map.

P.S. A complete understanding of the Luddites reveals they got a bad rap, which stuck obviously as a synonym for being against technology. Not that I would be sensitive about being so labeled.

Higher Education Premises

At the same time there is a recognition of technology being the centerpiece of educational change (overlooking the even more important factor of human capital), it useful to list some of the general assumptions regarding higher education in general.

• Students, and this writer for sure, already regard all colleges as businesses
• Students (and many teachers) have grown up with the Internet as an everyday activity
• Instant gratification is desired by a large number of people of all ages
• Students are looking to be employable upon gradation
• The supply function in higher education is deficient in many countries
• With respect to policies, whether academic or administrative, colleges can do as they please
• Socialization, sports, and networking are the most important subjects at college
• Those seeking upward economic mobility from education have to march to a different drummer

Picking up on the final point above, financially challenged students are faced with multiple questions: how many hours per week can I work, should I stay close to home in order to help family finances, and—should I go for on-line education as a way to hopefully finesse these questions. Given that less than 10% of individuals in the lowest economic quartile get a college degree, versus over 75% in the highest such segment, changes in education which benefit low-income strivers are devoutly to be wished. Unfortunately, the skew of where these students go for higher education is toward community colleges and for-profit vendors, neither of which is an academically compelling alternative.

On-line Education

It is time to fit the actual subject of this little essay into the mosaic less than artfully sketched above. Is on-line higher education to be the collegiate capstone of the delivery component of education reform, bringing successful education to those otherwise unexposed, or allowing those with geographical constraints around the world to access the best professors, or giving those with squeezed schedules the flexibility to make their education purchase on their own time.

Unlike the “New Math,” the contemporary version of on-line education has sprung from entrepreneurial energies, even when coming from those who initially were employed by large schools. The most important of the energies are those surrounding the aforementioned technological advances, the Internet/Social Media age. Second has been specific individuals like Salmon Khan, who thought there had to be a better way to help his little sister learn math.  (His approach deserved the label of the “New Math,” except, as noted at the outset, that term now has been used to the point of abuse.)

Third has been the amorphous group of education reformers who function with a combination of philosophy (high academic standards, disciplined culture, data driven instruction, heavy professional development) and intellectually open minds that, to quote Poirot again, “do not disturb facts to support a theory.” Fourth has been those colleges and professors who were not shy about recognizing the type of business opportunity which the for-profit education providers had discovered years back. The fact the former would still shun the latter at your average cocktail party should not obscure the numerous underlying commonalities.

Break number two: time to get personal.

THE WRITER’S STUDENT EXPERIENCE WITH ON-LINE HIGHER EDUCATION

Never having had the pleasure of pursuing an MBA and being a constant traveler, I decided to go on-line for this totally unnecessary add-on to my life’s resume. The purveyor was Southern New Hampshire University (SNHU), whose ads can be seen anywhere from the World Atlas website to the NBA.

The following was the early check list for on-line learners¸ what in business would be referred to as qualifying the prospect: “persistence, ability to tolerate technical problems, technical capability to create documents, ability to process the Internet and download software. Students must have good time management skills, preferably by setting a schedule. They must have effective and appropriate communicate skills.”

Certainly there is an implicit belief in the on-line world that sending students to read a website is no different from its historical predecessor–get this book from the library and read it. Of course, it is a little more difficult to mark up websites, although there are related ways to do so.

These are the technological mechanics, suggestions, and requirements relevant to the first on-line course I signed up for, “Human Behavior in Organizations.” Intellectually I knew this would be quite interesting since I function as the sole employee of the WKBJ Foundation. The second course was on “Global Entrepeneurship.”

 Key to understanding the process was knowing that “your course will be delivered through Blackboard. Below are the most used Blackboard tools and areas.

 Announcements: this area is used to post day-to-day course details such as the status of or directions for assignments. Check the announcements on a regular basis, at least several times each week.

1. Course Information: the course syllabus, assignment guidelines and rubrics, technical support, Student Handbook, and advising information can be found here. Check this area at the start of the class. It is recommended that the syllabus be downloaded for future reference.
2. Learning Modules: this area contains course content, including lectures, readings, resources, and assignments. Check this area at the start of each module and throughout the module week to review course materials.
3. Discussion Board: this is one of the areas for discussion and collaboration in the class. Participate and contribute on a regular basis if your course includes discussions.
4. Research/Writing: SNHU library and research information can be found here. Check this area for links and information on different library-related resources.
5. My Instructor: instructor information is located in this area. Check this area to find out about your instructor’s background and contact information.
6. My Grades: Check this area to find out your grades for your course assignments.”

With respect to writing assignments,”because submitted papers remain the intellectual property of their authors, instructors, and respective institutions, we are unable to show you the content of this paper (ed. the student’s writings) at this time. If you would still like to view this paper, your instructor may be able to request permission to view the paper from the instructor to whom the paper was originally submitted.” That advisory came from another vendor, iParadigm, LLC to be specific. It handled the “Turnitin” aspect, after the student agreed to several pages of legalese. This relationship was not mentioned in the above list of procedural descriptors.

•  Moving right along, ”this is your class homepage” (which I discovered on the first day of week three). “To submit an Assignment, click on the “Submit” button to the right of the assignment name. If the Submit button is grayed out, no submissions can be made to the assignment. If resubmissions are allowed, the submit button will read “Resubmit” after you make your first submission to the assignment. To view the paper you have submitted, click the “View” button. Once the assignment’s post date has passed, you will also be able to view the feedback left on your paper by clicking the “View” button.”

A description of the students in the Human Behavior course would be as follows: some were English as a Second Language students, some were virtually illiterate relative to what one would expect at the graduate level, a couple were extensively experienced in the world of work. Many had children, many were dissatisfied with their jobs and looking for a fix; some were ex-military. All were into political correctness: all diversity is good, all stereotypes are bad, all bosses are stupid. There was lots of whining among the younger students who apparently think that companies were established for the sake of prospective employees.

The Clicking Process

 As the above advisory from the school said, the on-line student must be comfortable with the computer.

There were at least 15 main menu navigational items, with another 15 or so subheadings, including some attempting to steer the student to other products and services of the publisher whose e-book is assigned to the student for the specific course. There were Help Desks at multiple places.

Here is a quick run-through of the clicks:

SNHU … User Name … Password …SNHU Mail … Back to Home … Blackboard … Course Name … Discussion Board (Create Thread and/or Post) … (When prior okay) Return to Course List … My Management Lab … Sign In … User Name … Password (both different from above) … Course Name (Seven items, including a Study Plan) … Study Plan: five questions, click for answers, then a three-question test; 4-6 sets of these per chapter … Click out three times to be fully finished.

The Educational Function

From my standpoint, the course questions in Human Behavior were simplistic, ignoring important facets of context, culture, consistency, and credibility. In a normal classroom, these issues would hopefully be the subject of vibrant discussion. Not here. Discussion Board responses are of the kissing your sister variety. Here is a comment from the professor:

*Bob, “Your discussion for this week reflected a distinguished post. You made a connection to the content in the course by discussing the organizational behavior. Your responses to peers were engaging and informative. Your posts were submitted in a timely manner. Your responses supported with research will reflect critical thinking. You’re off to a great start in the discussion board!”

The above was my first input from the professor, as you can tell; I came to believe that her comment about research was a veiled way of saying that I was not yet quoting academic/website sources in my posts. Could I tell her I am so ancient that I have experienced all the curricular stuff and do not need to look it up?! I subsequently sent two “Case Incidents” directly to her, calling the computer system Kafkasque, and I am sure I did not exactly follow all the rules about APA format (another area where the student gets pointed elsewhere to find out how to do something, as opposed to it being included in the syllabus handed out by the professor on day one) so I doubted that her next message to me would be quite so cheery. I did finally find the ”turnitin” box, but could not resubmit what actually was an early submission. Yes, I said that right.

Here is another comment from the professor: “You accurately summarized the main elements with sufficient details about the obvious and not so obvious issues of the aging workforce. You applied the concept of age discrimination correctly within your analysis when you described the demographics behind the aging workforce. Critical thinking was evident through comprehensive exploration of a diverse workforce and supported with sources; however, your reference page (Note: I never got the hang of APA) was missing. Keep up the good work!” My guess is that this set of words was generic and applicable to the majority of students.

Interestingly, the worst score I received on one of the little simulation exercises we had to do was concerning a Motivation situation. If I had been in a classroom, I would have argued there was no correct answer possible from the limited information provided.

At times, taking the courses seemed rather like a game: click on this icon/question/button and then, if correctly done, move to the next click. If the icon/question/button is intellectually provocative and/or elicited meaningful commentary from either the professor or other students, then value-added is created. Alas, not the case for these two courses. Note that this observation is not a complaint stemming from a low grade. Just the opposite. Below are the details on points received for my Global Entrepreneurship business plan.

“(24/25) Milestone submission and incorporation of feedback (25/25) Comprehensive final product (15/15) Critical Thinking (14/15) Research (10/10) Integration and Application (10/10) Writing (Mechanics/Citations) Bob, I have enjoyed watching you progress through this course with both ventures. The risk and competitors matrixes for these ventures were significantly different to one another. You have delivered a consistently high standard of work throughout the course and the final project reflects this. Thank you for your participation in this course.”

Well prof, it would have been nice to have had some pushback from you, like in any direction. When I put Yao Ming on my Board of Directors for a projected business in China, you might have said something other than, “you have put together a distinguished group of directors.”

EVALUATION OF ON-LINE HIGHER EDUCATION

The Teachers

Who are the teachers of on-line education? How can a student possess the information necessary to make quality judgments; essentially do they not revert to the brand—the name of the school—or to convenience, as stated seemingly the leading motivation for a student to go on-line. If the student draws a professor like the one I had for Global Entrepreneurship, an individual who does not care about his spelling, is there not an instant loss of respect, which then carries over to the content side of the deal (and which also speaks poorly of the sponsoring college). As with the first course, there was minimal real feedback on the weekly submissions.

The Objectives

What are the goals of on-line higher education:

• more low income young people taking college courses
• greater persistency by existing students through the Bachelor’s/Master’s cycle
• more college enrollees
• greater accessibility to higher education for international students
• tighter link between education and employability
• nice addition to existing academic resumes
• exposure to best teachers

What is the tangible document in the hand of the graduate of a random on-line course (as opposed to a complete curriculum through one education vendor):

• nothing
• certificate of participation
• certificate of accomplishments
• some college credits
• enough college credits for a diploma

Commentary

As is true in many areas, from sex to a publicly-held company’s reported earnings, the actual of on-line higher education inevitably is compared with expectations. Capital is raised and staffing established based on the latter—and so is the publicity.

The MOOC (Massive Open On-line Courses) development became front page news when glamour players like Stanford and Harvard took the lead, not the disreputable (to the college establishment) Phoenixes of the world.

What is the actuality of MOOC thus far. According to the “New York Times” Jeffrey Selingo, in his October, 2014 article “Demystifying the MOOC,” the average on-line user is a young white American man with a bachelor’s degree and a full-time job. ”Some 80% of MOOC students at the Universities of Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2012-13 already had a degree. Surprisingly, the same 80% ratio prevailed in the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) and in South Africa. The data are from a sampling of Coursera courses but are representative of edX as well.”

Drop-out rates for students swapping the classroom for on-line are much higher than for their counterparts who get dressed and go to a boxed physical layout with a talking head up front. Perhaps on class sizes should be limited. This could move discussion board posts from vanilla to at least pistachio, if not in a totally different direction, like tossed salad. Right now, they are bland, flavorless, not satisfying to the mind’s appetite. Which spills back to a basic question of the purpose of on-line: is it a quick checkmark thing, akin to a tourist in Rome going down his list of sites seen—Coliseum, check; The Baths, check; Vatican, check, what’s next.

I find myself wondering about the on-line business model applicable to the SNHU on-line courses. The school provides its name, takes care of G&A (general and administrative functions), is customer conscious, and—then what? What is the relationship with the adjunct professor who has no other contact or contract with the school? Is the professor paid a standard rate or with incentives based on graduation rate/drop-out rate, class size, student surveys? If the student is paying full rate, should exposure be required by the curricula to all manner of commercial websites with their get one free come-ons of no use to students. What part of the curriculum does the professor create; are they almost entirely implementers of an academic approach created at the home office?

On reconstructing On-line methodology

My initial thought is that the starting point should be a definition as to what are one-time aspects of the course: syllabus, scoring rubric, etc. The idea would be to organize them in one place with a request that they be printed out by the student because following week one, they would come off the computer. After that, do every communication possible through the Discussion Board, including “here’s what you need to do this week.” There will still be a need for separate clicks for TurnitIn and Grading, but the overall net result would be a shifting of the education/navigation ratio in favor of the former, which–ignoring convenience–is what you signed up for in the first place.

The present system is like going to Bernie’s but having to obtain different parts of the meal from different places, when what you want is somebody responsible for delivering a good total eating experience—the student has already ceded by going on-line that physical ambiance is not the issue—but does he not still want an interactive classroom/professor dynamic?  What is the right role for technology, what part is about value-added education?  Again, note that the desired characteristics of an on-line learner start with being comfortable with the technical stuff, i.e, the marketing pitch is not about education.

Naturally I am not the only one rethinking what on-line is supposed to accomplish or who it is to be aimed at. In January, 2015, the non-profit Modern States Education Alliance (founded by Steven Klinsky) announced an initiative, “Freshman Year for Free.” It will be a collaboration with edX, a well-known on-line provider founded by Harvard and MIT.  Courses and exams created by university partners will establish a tuition-free route to the attainment of college credit. Clearly the target audience here is the financially challenged student.

Udacity, the MOOC often credited with paving the way for this concept, has already thrown in the towel on its original approach and is now concentrating on fee-based “corporate and vocational training.” Not exactly a paradigm shift in higher education.

 CONCLUSION

 The third choice in the Scottish judicial system—“not proven”—seems accurate with respect to any assessment of on-line higher education at this moment in its evolution. How’s that for succinctness!

Bob Howitt, Fall/Winter, 2014-15.

Notes:

The opening quote is from Griselle Baret, the Education Program leader at the Hunts Point Alliance for Children in New York City. Griselle, who has a Master’s, is less than half the age of Bob, who laughs out loud when reading the BBC book, “Grumpy Old Men. ”

For those who are not familiar with the culinary leader in New Jersey, it is the genre known as a “Diner.” Wherever it is located, and that seems like on every decent highway, the menu will be huge and the portions large, but not the prices. The pies and cakes will have more whipped cream, meringue, and frosting than is allowed by the AMA. The establishments are typically open twenty-four hours and are usually owned by Greeks, who hopefully are more inclined to pay their taxes here than is true of their home country compatriots. The servers look like they are from central casting, which is often true of the customers themselves. Thin is not in among these patrons, including yours truly.

In addition, a diner for me is a place where essay ideas often are born, especially when Bernie’s is actually in Barcelona, where I recently spent a total of five months.

The Poirot quote is from Agatha Christie’s 1924 book entitled “Poirot Investigates.”

I first became aware of SNHU because of its customer friendly approach to enrolling two-year college graduates directly into its four-year programs. A while later, in watching the NBA play-offs, I was reminded of the school. I decided to call its 800 number, with the resolve that if one component of the conversation was unappealing, I would bag the idea. Somewhat to my cynical surprise, everything went smoothly, including the adviser’s willingness to send me a year-old syllabus for a course I was signing up for and the school taking on the burden of tracking down my college transcript of fifty years ago.The fact that it was pure on-line, i.e. not a hybrid, was a must because of my travel bug. I know I should at least attempt some balance in my experience by enrolling on-line with a big name university—yes, I know I should.

ADDENDUM TO BERNIE’S DINER:

If I am really testing various on-line approaches, perhaps my upcoming third class at SNHU should be my last. Maybe attempting to make sense of Financial Regulations in ten on-line weeks will cause me to go in a different academic direction, perhaps social work.

Oops, the school advised me to withdraw completely! SNHU interpreted my several changes of schedule as being indicative of low resolve.  Uh, true!

Meanwhile, the world of higher education is rife with different sales pitches for graduate programs, what I refer to as “Get your Masters by Tuesday” marketing approaches, with a heavy emphasis on the courses delivered on-line.

In this context, it is interesting to enumerate the points made by a recent graduate of an Executive MBA program. With corporate world experience spanning five years a requirement to be enrolled in this particular endeavor, she found the classroom interaction with other mature individuals of great benefit. Backgrounds ranged from that of a surgeon to that of a nuclear engineer. Moreover, the professors were typically rooted in the real world of business and thus connected well with the students. Additional exposure to different careers and cultures was gained from a residency overseas.

In theory, each of these attributes can be garnered through the on-line modality. In practice, however, it appears that aspirational student are as likely to be disappointed as satisfied. A cautionary note to myself in forming any opinions about on-line; everybody I know who has taken such a course did so for convenience, not for its educational attraction.

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For nearly a decade, my foundation has had a Wall Street Committee, typically consisting of a half-dozen members. There is a live portfolio of about $75,000 at this time, one-third in cash and two-thirds in common stocks. Some 14 well-known American companies are represented, virtually all of whom derive substantial percentages of their business from international operations, which is an attractive characteristic most of the time.

The committee meets two or three times a year to eat pizza, drink beer, and talk about the stocks in the portfolio and new ideas, the state of the economy, and life in a world which often seems to be spinning off its axis.

None of the committee members were born in the United States, and they ganged up on me to provide thoughts on the geopolitical topic in the heading above. The date of these observations was 2010; I have appended some 2015 thoughts in italics. All blushing aside, the points of five years ago mostly ring valid today; maybe it is because they were obvious, simplistic, no-brainers, nothing regarding expert insight.

*The American consumer has revised downward his prior pattern of excessive consumer expenditures, typically financed by unhealthy debt levels, but the overall domestic economy continues to be the largest market in the world. This means that, periodic financial/economic upheavals notwithstanding, the USA is still the magnet country for people seeking job opportunities not available in their home countries. This gives power to any American leader.

No change. (The growth of multinational companies works both ways, creating and eliminating jobs in different markets/countries.)

*The controversial aspects of President Obama’s tenure have not obscured his broader impact, that of bringing about a better relationship between the United States and other countries than was true with his predecessor. In fact, it would not be surprising to see a woman or a second minority male follow in Obama’s groundbreaking footsteps and become president at any time.

Still mostly valid, with the caveat that many of those military/political historians steeped in the Kissinger “realpolitik” mode of thinking now believe that Obama’s alleged “softness” internationally has cost him support from some erstwhile allies.

The political stability of the United States is well above-average; this fact, plus the credibility of its legal system, fosters sufficient international respect to overcome its occasional large mistakes.

No change, but note the somewhat conflicting preceding point in italics. In addition, the periodic idiocy of government shutdowns, real or threatened, does not exactly enhance the status of this country.

The openness of American society in terms of a person’s ability to speak their mind and pursue ideas–whether political, artistic, or in business–is unparalleled.

No change.

*China of course has become far more important as a growing, diversified economy but its average citizen is not yet in great financial shape, and the society is still closed to a large degree, i.e. its financial dealings and political process are not as transparent as desired. India has not yet put its whole economic/political act together and remains a country with major income inequality. Russia is still evolving, trying to get past its centuries of totalitarian rule, its corruption, and an addiction to alcohol and tobacco which puts the average life at only 57 years of age.

Some shifts required in these particular observations: China has entered into the international financial arena in a manner not true five years earlier, Russia has become more aggressive externally, and uh, I did forget about Japan–but that’s okay, its focus is mostly internal.

South America remains relatively provincial, needing to resolve national problems before attaining international leadership. Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez was a victim of his overreaching program, which resulted in inflation, an outflow of currency, and disgust at his moves to imprison his critics. In contrast to the above two comments, Brazil has achieved enhanced stature, a function of government stability, the benefits of the Olympics (2016) and the World Cup (2014), exploitation of its natural resources, and the benefits of sheer size.

*Whoops, Brazil has blown it: huge corruption scandals reaching to the top of the government structure, an economic downturn, and unsafe water for the upcoming Olympics. I believe it was Lord Acton who said that “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.”

No European nation has become a viable candidate for leadership. The large and multifaceted African continent has not produced any candidates either; in some ways, its situation is similar to that of South America. The 2010 World Cup in South Africa provided insufficient leverage to that country’s economic outlook, and despite its many attributes, high unemployment and a heavy AIDS impact hold the country back.

No change.

When you think about other possible leader nations, those in the Mideast are not terribly relevant because the region’s economic base is focused on one product (oil) and treatment of its citizens on average is not appealing to the world community.

No change.

Hence, from a pragmatic standpoint, the United States keeps its leadership position in part because there is not a truly worthy competitor.

Probably there should be a comment here, for those fixated on the so-called Western world, that the putative competitors for world leadership—England and Germany, while functioning more effectively than their European counterparts, are not about to jostle the United States from its top spot. Moreover, China’s stock market and economic comeuppance has removed the cloak of invincibility from the country which has been driving half of the world’s growth. Commodity currency countries which had thrived selling stuff to China have seen the value of their currency brought down sharply, the flip side being a stronger USA dollar.

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In 1992, I left a great job on Wall Street and, having raised a bunch of money, established a foundation to provide “educational assistance to financially disadvantaged young people.” My new must read became Education Week, whose typical subscriber probably has jaundiced views about my prior life. What is not in dispute in the world of academia, which prefers ph.d types to the ps.d (poor, smart, driven) profile favored by many on Wall Street, is that the intellectual functions performed in the stock market are child’s play compared with those involved in educating a child. Hence, it took me many years to overcome this deficit and gain the insight and courage necessary to issue fearless forecasts.

Finally, about two decades ago – I could safely predict the following:

*some charter schools will fail, an escape route from perpetual embarrassment apparently not available to traditional public schools with comparable credentials.

*some students involved in voucher programs will do poorly in reading and math, apparently not realizing that all youngsters are supposed to blossom when they move from one governance structure to another.

*students in “private” schools will continue to demonstrate more indications of public/civic engagement than those enrolled in schools dedicated to “public” education.

*school choice will continue to attract educational leaders who are basically optimistic entrepreneurs, and who, if they cannot have this outlet for their educational energies, will not transfer to conventional education positions.

*affluent suburbanites will be shocked when .value-added analysis of their children’s

schools reveals they are not as good as previously thought; only the test scores are good.

*said individuals will reduce their whining about charter schools and their foaming at the mouth when the word voucher is mentioned; they will think more kindly about tax credits.

*the statement of leading school choice advocate Howard Fuller that the school choice debate is “not about research, it’s about justice” will resonate throughout the land, leading to a spreading of educational democracy among the currently disempowered .

*there will be more publicity for polls showing that younger members of longstanding minority organizations disagree with their elders and are very much in favor of school choice.

*professorial and graduate student research alike will continue to prove to the sixth decimal point that school choice amazingly does no academic harm to the students who are subjected to such endeavors, which makes school choice worth pursuing if you believe in the aforementioned democracy thing.

*the market share represented by school choice students will double, to 25%, and then flatten out because the traditional school system will have adjusted with more rigorous standards, increased teacher development, enhanced ·leadership training, and greater parental involvement

*people will calm down; discussions will focus on “and how are the children?” not which type of school are they attending.

At this future point, people will notice that, whoops, “undereducation” continues to be a major problem, seemingly impervious to the impact of any and all educational reforms, and they will be forced to pay incremental explicit attention to a variety of more difficult, and therefore almost inevitably, underdiscussed issues:

*Is it economic poverty which creates educational deficits in incoming students, or is it  the poverty of non-family, non-structured living  arrangements  that establishes  a deficit  literally on day one? If bringingging children into the world  without  accompanying  parental  commitment  is  an antecedent negative to subsequent education, should not those in favor of educational enhancement  be  speaking  out on this  underlying issue?

*Do teenagers work too much, no, not on homework, but at paying jobs that have no educational content beyond learning to push the right button on the computerized cash register?

*Are schools unwittingly stopping their educational mission short by pushing kids to think about their time in the building as simply preparation for a life of earning money?

*Ouch, is it possible that all this dialogue about educational governance has zero to do with education and is entirely about power, and that the teachers union does not wish to convey power to urban minority parents, even as it teaches the latter’s children about self-esteem?

*Ah yes, those after-school programs are all so compelling, giving incremental attention to the educational needs of students, but should not the providers of band-aids for broken legs be speaking up about the need for change in the most proximate cause of these deficits, the school where the child just spent six or seven hours?

*Does not the issue of excessive television viewing have to be put front and center, not softened with semi-nonsense about “some shows are good”? Do students really need to be transfixed by series of eight-second images which give them the subliminal message that such a pace of stimulation is to be the leit motif of their lives?

Excluding the advent of iDevices and social media, and their impact on education – which thus far is non-existent actually – the above forecasts do not look half bad.

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