Demographics: Destiny and Drama
(Data are from various Wall Street Journal articles and Pew Center research publications, as well as government data sets, not all of which agree exactly with each other.)
To get your attention, think of these stunning figures. The age which has the greatest number of people is 58 for Caucasians, 29 for Asians, 27 for African-Americans, and 11 for Hispanics.
Ok, moving ahead.
The population snapshot indicates there are about 200 million white people in the United States; some 60 million Hispanics; 45 million African-Americans; 20 million Asians, and around 5 million other “labels.” The total number of minorities is 130 million, 40% of the total population, 330 million.
Put another way, there are 1.5 white people for every minority person.
Breaking the population differently: whites are 82% of those 85 years old and up; 66% of those 45-54, 58% of those 35-44, and 50% of those 0-4 years old.
This means that at birth there is 1 minority baby for every white baby.
To accentuate the point of dramatic demographic change, from 2010 to 2019, the white population barely changed while there was an addition of 19 million to the minority population (Hispanic, 52%; Asian, 22%; African-American, 17%; and other, 9%.).
Birth rates for the four primary ethnicities are now surprisingly quite similar, hovering around 1.7, the lowest in a century and below the 2.1 replacement rate. Differing number of births by ethnicity are a consequence of differing numbers of women in the child-bearing age category.
Reduced birth rates have caused longer-range population estimates to be changed; for example, the estimate of 374 million in the year 2046 is 34 million fewer than what was expected in 2012 and
10 million less than what was projected at the outset of 2019.
By the year 2030, all baby boomers will be over 65 years of age, which means 20% of the population will be at retirement age. Immigration will be the number one driver of an expected small growth in total population, surpassing the impact of births minus deaths. In 2034, for the first time in American history, there will be more older adults than children.
Wrapping it all up, by 2043, the country will be comprised of multiple minorities.