These succinct comments were written in 2019, in part reflecting my interest in the idea of a UBI. Recently, I asked myself “how are the observations below affected by COVID-19” and put my responses in brackets. The setting is the United States.

• DEMOGRAPHICS: There are major differences in median ages among the four major ethnicities. Hence, even though fertility rates of each are comparable to replacement rates, not only will population grow, but more importantly the nation is well on its way to being one of multiple minorities, i.e. no ethnic majority.

Which means: transfer of political power is inevitable. [Figuring the impact of COVID-19 on population, with all due respect to the related fatalities, would revolve around fertility rates; will women of child-bearing age be inclined toward larger or smaller families.]

• A Fact: INCOME and WEALTH DISPARITIES: record levels, with accretion happening daily.

Which means: the current verbal pushback will intensify. [If anything, interest in addressing this issue should rise, given the disparate impact of the virus lockdown.]

• A Fact: FINANCIAL DISPARITIES overlap with ethnicity.

Which means: race is always an issue. [No change there!]

• A Strongly-held (and not unique) Opinion: RACISM is the country’s cancer, with little evidence of remission.

Which means: racism is always relevant. [This is accentuated by COVID-19, as African American and Hispanic deaths from the virus exceed their respective percentages of the population.]

• A Fact: the MIDDLE CLASS earns no more, inflation-adjusted, than a decade ago, is shrinking, is angry, and skews white.

Which means its angst overlaps with every issue above. [COVID-19 “simply” piles on the frustration, particularly as small businesses are crushed by the lockdown.]

• A Fact: Americans have a propensity for individual violence; on average, everybody has a gun.

Which means: frustration + means = highly predictable bad outcomes. [There is no reason to change this viewpoint.]

• A Strongly-held Opinion: Western Europe is not substantially different from the United States in terms of having to struggle with an expected reduced secular rate of economic growth; stress related to the assimilation of an immigrant and refugee population while the native-born population is barely at a replacement rate; and the angst of lessened political stability. [COVID-19 for Western Europe is like throwing a drowning man an anchor!]

Which means: if one American is distraught, he or she can escape to a location elsewhere in the world but if millions are distraught, there is no logical escape. Thus, all the above sources of change and frustration have to be duked out. [Some superficial calmness exists now, when both travel and large gatherings are verboten; later, the underlying situations will become more evident.]

P.S. A must read for those interested in demographics is The Human Tide, by Paul Moreland.

The author weaves a fascinating story about how demographics has been and continues to be central to the evolution of countries and their participation in the world order. Here are a few highlights:

*Sizable population plus industrialization means participation in the arena of political power.

*Population growth is a combination of median age, fertility rate, infant mortality rate, and longevity, plus the net of emigration and immigration.

*Low income, young unemployed populations equal strife. Higher income, older population puts stress on the government social service budget. Shifts in working age to retiree ratio important.

*Rising per capita income, greater education, increased opportunities and independence (including contraceptives and abortions) for women, and urbanization connect to declining fertility rates.

*Future: greyer (multiple countries with advancing age cohorts, greener (more attention to renewable energy), and non-whiter (sub-Sahara Africa has higher fertility rates, even though declining).

*Median ages in the United States:  white, 44; Latino, 28; African American, 33; Asian, 36.

P.P.S. My data points, working backwards through the age spectrum in the United States:

                Above 65, over 75% of the population is white

                In less than 20 years, minorities will constitute over half of the working population

                By 2025, whites and minorities will be equal in terms of the number of high school graduates

                Of today’s newborns, less than 50% are white