Background: to state the obvious, different people are reacting to isolation in different ways. An 11 year-old near and dear to my heart said to me, “I am so disappointed in myself; I am starting to curse.” My outlet is writing, whatever comes to mind, even if it is a crazy mixture of satire, realism, and thoughts not representative of what I would like to see happen.

**

Dr. Fauci, the nation’s point guard, has announced that the Chinese virus, aka several other names, may not be so eager to succumb to the warm weather reportedly about to hit the epicenter of New York City. Those aware of the fatal virus situations in, e.g., Colombia and South Africa, might have arrived at a similar conclusion already. He has simultaneously announced that deaths in the immediate future will be much fewer than previously predicted.

(For comparative purposes, the CDC said some 55 million Americans were affected by the winter seasonal flu of 2019-20; 63,000 died. Confirmed Covid 19 cases are 490,000, with 18,000 deaths reported. I believe there is a Professor Singer who has done a lot of work on the value of a human life; if he were to divide $2 trillion by the theoretical number of virus lives saved, his number might be off the charts of any actuarial calculation.)

What the combination of statements from Dr. Fauci means is that success in flattening the fatality curve will be accompanied by a stretching out of the virus’ impact, a plateauing that will persist through the Summer and into the Fall. In the Winter, in the relevant climates, the virus may well be confused with regular flu.

As a consequence, unemployment will not stop at 20%. New mandates (not yet proposed) to have testing done on the premises for every employer of more than 100 people will create a few jobs but not enough to offset drastic and continuing declines elsewhere. People are not going to suddenly head for the airport or the sporting arena or the conference held in a far-off hotel.

Economists in every organization will get the axe for their inability to “model” the virus impact on peoples’ ability to shop and spend; nor do they have a clue as to why most corporations would spend a dime on capital expenditures, except perhaps to further automate their downsized operations.

Prize-winning books published by well-known forecasters and societal modelers  will be pulled from the shelves and deleted from the internet as being not just irrelevant to the new world order (newsflash of no surprise, the European Union has completely come apart) but dangerously misleading.

In response to the chaos, and the screams of all those below the top 10% of reported incomes, the Federal Reserve will be forced to cease printing money to bail out banks, speculators, equity investors, takeover artists, currency traders, bondholders, and other Wall Streeters who have believed there is no moral hazard when the Fed will do anything to make them whole.

NOTE: THE ENSUING PARAGRAPH REPRESENTS A RAY OF LIGHT and therefore is inconsistent with the title of this little essay.

For once, the principle of looking for a relatively simple answer will prevail. Every American will receive a debit card that is good for $1,000 on their particular day of each month; determining the algorithm for this will give a few unemployed geeks something to do. Andrew Yang will lead the effort. Even the super-rich will get this money; the bureaucracy needed to exclude them is not worth it. (On the other hand, this would create jobs, so maybe there is merit to establishing an army of clerks.)

To cash the debit card, an individual must access a bank, which is not a problem as banks now can close their branches (except for the wealthy upper decile, which always needs that personal touch and advice on where in the world to hide their assets) and go completely on-line.

Sculptures will be added (a minor and very specialized job increment here) in the nation’s capitol to commemorate the efforts of Chairman Powell and his colleagues at the Fed for their efforts in early 2020 to hold back the tsunami of economic and societal collapse. The fact that the steps taken were in vain is not germane — more than one Nobel Peace Prize has gone to a non-pacifist.

Because of continuing bans on all human contact by American citizens, food preparation will only be done by people temporarily or illegally in this country. Border patrols will be instructed to provide those who cross into the United States with information on those locales in need of help.

The food itself will be condensed, compressed, and codified for delivery by small drones, the manufacture of which will provide another modest lift to domestic employment. The bulk of drones will continue to come from China despite the implementation of many agreements to keep Chinese influence at a minimum.  Business is business after all.

Admittedly people who prefer something different with their food, e.g. less salt, will suffer. They can either resort to dealing with the growing underground economy or resign themselves to becoming collateral victims of the war to create a new society and be posthumously honored or they can sign up for a Musk flight to Mars.

As companies revisit their supply chain dynamics, particularly the geographic dependency involved, higher domestic inventory levels will ensue, which would be an employment boost except for the inevitable AI/cobot impact. Wall Street analysts will myopically focus on the added costs in this inventory build-up, ignoring the healthcare logic pertinent to the decision, and conclude that long-term earning power of corporate America will decline significantly.

Needless to say, lower earnings and lower confidence in the future – and more recognition that escalating debt at every level of the government and economy is fundamentally a variation of the Ponzi scheme concept — will produce a sharp decline in the stock market, something the Fed and Congress together cannot prevent without third world levels of inflation.

Meanwhile, the principle of social promotion will now govern the world of education. Each and every year for as far as one can see, all students will be deemed one year smarter than the prior year. Those who attempt to use their $1,000 for substantive education will be in violation of the rules, because not everybody will use the money thusly and therefore different people will advance and presumably accrue power over others, not a good thing according to many college professors and New York Times editorial writers.

Maybe people will become better able to conceptualize how a billion people in the world already live on a couple of bucks a day, but they will fight like hell not to remotely approach such deprivation. In truth, most individuals, and the United States does not have an exclusive on this attitude, simply are praying for the virus scare to end so they can return to their prior, profligate way of living.

The underserved, undereducated, underempowered will continue to be screwed. Already they are being disproportionately affected by the virus. Grace periods on paying different bills will be followed by large amount-due notices when creditors believe they have the opportunity to get some of the money owed to them. Eviction notices will similarly re-appear.

Social promotion in education will put those who are already behind even further behind, with negative consequences for long-term economic mobility and their ability to pay current bills. With the Fed already having pumped trillions into the economy, they will have nothing left for those most in need.

Those who hoped that enforced virtual togetherness because of the virus would lead to a calmer, more community-oriented society will be sorely disappointed. Not only will the huge unemployment rate spark serious antagonisms, but all of the above societal and economic factors are taking place during a period of changing demographics and political proposals that stretch tension further.

The inevitable transfer of power, admittedly over an extended period of time, will be ugly to watch. Gun sales will rise, regardless of any politically correct legislation; gold will be accumulated by those who could care less about its inferior long-term rate of return; the suicide rate for middle-aged white men will climb even further; the polarization of the country will be complete.

Reflecting its many and historically atypical challenges, the United States will turn fully inward at the same time as its ethnic diversity should be making it more comfortable dealing with different nations and their non-white populations.

Madmen in real life, of the type already chronicled in novels by best-selling authors, will wonder whether a good ‘ol war would be useful as a way to re-set the social order here and in the affected nations. A terrible idea that has been repeated throughout history.

**

“It can’t happen here” is a wonderful non-analytical, blissfully ignorant sentiment. For sure, the above semi-coherent ramblings cannot be relevant to a locked-down United States in the year 2020. Or can they?

For sure, this country cannot become another chapter in the multi-century opus entitled, “The Rise and Fall of Empires.”  Or can it?

**

In case any student we are helping with respect to their higher education gets the wrong idea, we are completely supportive of their aspirations – and hopeful that some combination of head and heart becomes typical for Generation Z or K or whatever the heck the label is these days!

For a quarter-century, I have been facilitating the pursuit of higher education by young people. To succinctly describe the context, here are some data points: of the several hundred students who have been assisted, an estimated 90% have been Hispanic, probably 95% financially challenged, maybe 10% undocumented or DACA, some 90% first generation, and perhaps 90% with paid jobs in the real world.

All these numbers are from my head as I maximized money invested in students to fulfill their mission and did not devote time, energy, or money on either sophisticated information gathering or data analytics.

Wide reading and lots of experience informed the decision not to spend funds in said directions as nothing learned ever changed my approach, it being as much a lifestyle (mine) as an intellectual decision. Besides, Barnes & Noble and the Internet have more than enough low-priced or free inputs on “mentoring” or “education reform” or “how to help those with thin wallets” or other subjects of similar import.

**

The process of interaction with a young person always began with a quite lengthy first conversation (typically ninety minutes), one-on-one in my small office in the middle of a town which is now predominantly Hispanic. Initially I asked about the jobs and education levels of their parents (both in their home country and in the USA), why they came to this area, their attitudes toward higher education, their feelings about debt, and their understanding of our arcane system of higher education (typically they had surface awareness at best; who can blame them!)

Those queries were simply for extended openers before delving into the complicated thought process of the student. In every conversation, my questions went in the direction indicated by the student’s answers, while simultaneously managing to cover everything I wanted to know. (The information sheet which I used and the complete list of my questions are available at no cost; simply e-mail me at wkbj@att.net.)

Do not ask how the student grantees came to my attention; the answer to the multiple choice question would be “all of the above.” Our marketing/solicitation budget was zero.

Our rejection rate has been close to zero, although a handful of disgruntled students would not say they felt the warmth. Their projected paths were simply too illogical to waste money that should go to others.

While the student was in college, there were periodic e-mails from me (both inquiries as to specific information and my dissertations on various topics), campus visits, and multiple meals (in New Jersey or New York City or wherever the student might be located).

Students realized I was available 24/7 from a communication standpoint, my lack of skill in Spanish being irrelevant. (Perhaps it was offset by my fondness for futbol [including having attended matches in the fabled Camp Nou stadium of Barcelona; my own photo of Messi in action is on my office wall] and my extensive travel in South America.)

My funding per semester was a relatively large amount, the check payable to the student (as an aside, note the current rising interest in non-profit organizations providing money directly and the expanded discussion of the Universal Basic Income concept). I was almost entirely oblivious to other funding sources being accessed by the student and equally (and deliberately) ignorant of whether some of the money was going into the family sugar bowl. 

I have been equally unaware of how tax returns are done by students and their families.

Never was there a connection between the student’s GPA and their grant. My only request was that the student be adamant about graduating.

My life experiences (including Wall Street and homeless shelter volunteering) were shared, I provided recommendations for various educational and specialized scholarship programs, I clipped (not knowing about “links”) and mailed newspaper and magazine articles of interest, gave away relevant (hopefully) books…. and broke bread (I think I mentioned that already). Almost forgot, I sent a birthday card of my own design, attended numerous graduations (that was the outcome goal, correct!) and later, weddings on more than a few occasions.

**

Alumni (students who have been assisted to graduate from college) have realized that there was a continuity of our relationship after graduation, if desired by the individual. For one, it is fun for me to know how people are doing in their real lives; second, such interaction helps me in talking with those who are at earlier stages on their education and career paths; and third, I still like to eat.

I have provided honest and glowing commentaries when requested to be a reference for a prospective employee. Twice I have been interviewed by a Department of Defense investigator about an alumnus involved in a job requiring security clearance.

**

An evaluation of this multi-year effort by myself would conclude (1) it has been hugely successful, (2) it is not scalable and maybe not replicable, (3) it underscores the essentiality of human interaction, (4) it clearly broke some rules established by the businesses known as colleges (no animals were harmed, nor was sleep lost by me!), and (5) it underscored how many high school seniors with the socioeconomic characteristics described above have never had a thorough discussion about possible next steps in their lives.

**

Do not get me started about the country’s underperforming, poorly structured, inappropriately designed education system. The college/university sector specifically should be blown up and reconstituted as a lower cost, lifelong learning collection of credentials that mean something beyond an attractive wall ornament. (Does any college graduate use more than half of what they just spent a fortune regurgitating on tests?)

Do not get me started about the woeful state of guidance counseling, whether at the high school or college level.  The job description is a total misnomer in many cases.

Do not get me started about …. okay, enough, I have a bloodwork appointment later.

Bob Howitt                                                                

P.S. To all grammarians, I probably have slipped with respect to my tenses (or is it my“senses!”) as my foundation is technically finished but my modus operandi lives on as I move closer to my goal of dying broke.

P.P.S. In case my kvetching obscures this fact: I am IMMENSELY PROUD of the accomplishments of all those individuals I have helped along the way.

Back Story: Yes, one does exist. It consists of bumping around in multiple situations (including being self-unemployed for three years, after I was fired by a guy who years later murdered his wife) before landing at a 18-year gig, which included becoming a partner of a respected Wall Street money management and institutional research firm.

A multi-year stint as a homeless volunteer in New York City (culminating in an unpublished manuscript, “Eighteen Months in the Basement”) took place in the final stages of my life on Wall Street. This experience was one of several factors that led to a desire for a big change. I was drafted by the Board of Directors to be the interim Executive-Director of the well-known New York City youth agency with the quaint name, The Door. With specialized help from an uber-aggressive director named Jacki Slater, the program was saved from bankruptcy and tears were shed at my going away party.

Then came day one of what the opening verbiage describes.