Everybody wants the ability in their job to earn enough money to meet basic needs, even if we tend to forget that truism in a country afflicted with both overall affluence and huge disparities in income: a roof over one’s head, some clothes (let’s not have a debate here about “needs” versus “wants”), and food on the table, hopefully not of the portion size which eventually brings big health bills. These are the tangible essentials, made more enjoyable of course by the presence of a supportive family and good friends.

Would it be helpful to put this simple, honest imagery in the guidance counselor speech to incoming high school freshmen? Would it not be preferable to have that message replace what seems to happen at present, either no message at all or a collection of words which convey the impression that it is college or bust for every single student?

Why not offer up the mother of all education information spreadsheets: an array of alternative routes and some inputs on the variables associated with each. (I am told that posting such a spreadsheet would look sloppy, and, as a non-techie, I am following said advice.) The headings at the top would not only range through every level of higher education, but would include entrepreneur, marketable skills (aka career/technical), and military columns. Every cost category would be on the left side of the spread sheet, plus numerous other variables: the number of years required to gain the eventual piece of paper if relevant, family support, networking, debt, scholarships, grants, risk, and the degree of independence.

This spreadsheet would have the sole purpose of providing information. It would not be used to either promote a particular course of action nor to suggest that a freshman typically knows his exact future path. Instead the spreadsheet would be used as a reference point, perhaps with a scheduled check-in date, e.g. every six months as a freshman or sophomore, every three months as a junior and every two months as a senior.

The guidance counselor would use the student’s spreadsheet commentary to enhance the latter’s dialogue with the counselor, a marked improvement over current practice.

Such a combination of changes could produce a more thoughtful, smoother decision-making process, distinctly different from today’s stress-producing modus operandi when it comes to thinking about life after high school.

Moreover, there could be a collateral benefit of this attempt to somewhat de-stress the incremental education decision, namely a reduction in the high school drop-out rate. The proposed changes address some of the most common reasons behind the decision to prematurely exit high school:

Negative behavior, regardless of reason, that brings expulsion.

• Inadequate attention given to the marketable skills path to economic sustainability.
• An inferiority complex triggered by the message that “college is for everybody.”
• The family budget requires another wage-earner.
• Because of documentation issues, aspiration is diluted or defeated.

Within the category of higher education per se, in today’s environment of high tuition rates, burdensome debt levels for college graduates, and a persistently sluggish job market for recent graduates, a cooler look at the numbers is advantageous. While 70% of high school graduates pursue some type of incremental education, only 30% earn a four-year degree and 10% a two-year degree. Does it not therefore make even more sense to devote additional attention to all of the metrics of enhanced education, particularly those pertinent to the under-analyzed 60%.These thoughts are not laid out because of economic ignorance. There is full awareness that the lifetime income benefits of greater education are substantial: a Master’s degree-holder can earn twice what a high school diploma commands. To put the data another way, assuming a 40-year working life, the economic difference between a high school drop-out and a Bachelor’s is about $25,000 before taxes per year, unadjusted for debt. Obviously, this is a big differential.It is less clear that the steps from high school diploma to associates degree are life-changers; a foregone positive income differential of $10,000 per year before taxes could be acceptable to a person who develops a marketable skill in a much shorter period than is characteristic of college and incurs minimal debt in doing so. Note that oft-quoted income data does not usually provide a comparative calculation for earnings of individuals with marketable skills not directly tied to the level of educational attainment, e.g., those gained through apprenticeship programs.There are of course other benefits associated with more education: for example, a high school drop-out is three times as likely to be unemployed as an individual with a Bachelor’s degree or more. Unemployment rates for those with an Associate’s degree or who have only completed some college courses are roughly double those with a four-year degree or higher.

Muddying the analysis about the right path for a given student is that because of employer skepticism over the quality of education on the nation’s campuses and the pervasive penetration of technology in the workplace, there is a demand for greater academic credentials. These are estimates of workplace composition based on the education required (% of jobs):

1973                            2020E

• Bachelor’s degree or more                                16%                             35%
• Some college                                                    12                                30
• High school graduate                                        40                                24
• Less than high school                                        32                                12

The education world is in a state of change. Common Core standards (a good and necessary idea, poorly implemented), revised SAT, evaluations of teacher performance, scrutiny of college graduation rates, pressure to hold down college inflation, major concern over the level of student debt, and the advent of on-line courseware are all part of the current scene.Bringing all the macro and micro inputs together is not the point of this essay. And it is not to dissuade high schoolers from attending college. The financial attraction of this route speaks for itself; besides, college graduates smoke less, are healthier overall, and live longer. Instead, the suggestion of “One Goal…Multiple Paths” is to move away from the inadvertent message that a singular option fits all and, instead, seek to put in front of prospective high school drop-outs (including those who literally leave the school and those who mentally leave while still occupying a seat) clear and consistent information about different paths.

Better decision-making and planning should be the procedural goal of everybody concerned, from high school administrators to parents and students.