Trying to figure out the interface of these two characteristics is challenging; so often, there is an overlap. At what might be considered one extreme, William F. Buckley, Jr. once commented that he would rather trust the creation of public policy to the first column of names in the Boston phonebook than to the faculty of Harvard University.

For sure, this has been an “interesting” year for so-called experts. Both pollsters and the intelligentsia have been proven wrong, at least predictively, in really big spots: Brexit, Santos (Colombia), and Trump.  People, shockingly to the media, are voting confidentially in their polling places, not sharing their thoughts with the survey-takers, who many times are construed as working for the “system” anyway.  Of course, if you flipped this picture, the experts would argue that given honest answers, they would have been more on-target in their predictions.  At the same time, their implicit arrogance blinded them from even contemplating what to others was obvious: if Trump could blast McCain and not drop in the polls, some other factor was clearly at play.

Not to be oblivious, there is another explanation behind the election and poll discrepancy: racism is both completely pervasive and normally exercised relatively quietly, i.e. not put in the face of a pollster, unless empowered, as is apparent now, by the unique context which is evident in our society.

Moving right along, as they say, stunningly to those mapping campaign strategy for the odds-on favorite to win the presidential election, this country has many people who are not enamored with the bicoastal media elites –for the latter Trump was a wet dream. More than a few of the elites have made themselves wealthy by playing a system which cares little about the daily lives of those they conveniently fly over or see only as a bunch of digits on their computer screens.

The arrogance of the Democratic National Committee clearly fogged its vision. The DNC was not listening when Charlie Munger, Warren Buffet’s partner, made this point at the Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting, “if you do not know your opponent’s argument, you do not know your own.”

It is similarly true that “It is hard to understand something when your paycheck (or your fund-raising) is dependent on not understanding.” Case in point, the NAACP totally misses the message that minority parents have endorsed high-performing charter schools and instead, reflecting its budgetary dependency on the teachers union, comes out with an anti-charter statement.

A broader truth, a psychological or real step taken by virtually everybody without typically noting it, is  that if there is a problem perceived as extremely difficult to resolve, the last place a person, especially an arrogant individual, looks is inside. They find an external source, a scapegoat. Lots of that going around, as Stewie from “Family Guy” would put it.

Yes, I have a problem with arrogance, especially that demonstrated by those individuals who attempt to use the credentials on their business cards — or the digital version thereof — not their expertise, to make their case when discussing an issue.

Years back, on meeting a school official for the first time, I called her by her first name. When she coldly responded, “that’s Dr. XYZ,” reflecting her Ph.D status, I knew she was not somebody with whom I would be successfully discussing educational policy. Some time later, when a staff person attempted to end our discussion by noting her high-level academic credential – implying that the questioner must be an idiot not to see the logic of her position – I quietly informed her that “I was too old to genuflect at the altar of Ph.D –holders.” (My best run on Wall Street was at a place that hired only individuals characterized as Ps.D: poor, smart, and driven.)

In truth, the best people I know have wonderful combinations of high-level intelligence, heart, passion, energy … and humility. They do not put down people with whom they disagree by calling them names. They do not match hateful, and irrational, messages with their own brand of venom.

Meanwhile, three interesting, maybe even positive and relevant, thoughts come to mind, lest I get totally depressed at the state of the world, as can easily happen.

*Longer-term, demographics will win out. Right now, there is virtually an even split between the number of whites under five years of age and the number of minorities.  Most of both categories are going to live for many years, making the future composition of the population highly predictable. Power at all levels of society inevitably will be transferred; let’s pray it is accomplished in a somewhat more peaceful manner than is indicated by what is taking place today.

*If, according to surveys done by the Pew Research Center,  74% of registered voters say “undocumented immigrants who meet certain requirements should be allowed to stay legally,” does not this percentage rise if Trump deports bona fide criminals?

*A 26 year-old immigration advocate of my acquaintance and a 69 year-old social service organization leader whom I have known for a quarter-century both come at the pending Trump presidency the same way, after they pulled the blankets back and climbed out of their respective beds of depression, that is. Before, they were fighting for social justice … and, simply put, that fight certainly continues.

As a final note, can there be any debate that, collectively this is THE ISSUE of our times: being able to say “I do not understand, please help me,”  being emotionally prepared to sit down and discuss a particular topic with somebody holding an opposite viewpoint, and being able to employ the Japanese proverb – “to find out the real reason, ask why seven times” without anybody storming out the room, cursing the other person’s lack of expertise and/or unwarranted arrogance.

 

 

The seven year-old girl lay prone on the patient table in the cardiologist’s office.  Unsurprisingly for anybody who knew this delightful young lady, she peppered the doctor with questions. His replies conveyed about as much sensitivity as that of the blinking machine he was studying. When, without any preparatory commentary, the doctor turned his patient over to his assistant to administer an EKG, the normally strong-willed girl began to cry. Only when the wires were calmly connected did she relax.

Perhaps she was really reacting to the loss of personal control, a circumstance which bothers most people, whether in a medical facility or in ordinary, daily life.

In our current high-stress environment, exacerbated by daily outbreaks of senseless loss of lives, the issue of the undulating sands of control is evident wherever one looks.

Who, I thought, feels more devoid of control (a partial list for sure, and in no order of importance):

A policeman trying to balance his job requirements with the environment in which he/she functions

All of us devoid of ideas for making more headway on racism

A minimum wage participant in the service economy

An undereducated, father-free, 18 year-old African American male

A middle-aged white male unemployed for the first time ever

An affluent parent attempting to explain that an attitude of entitlement is not appropriate

An undocumented Hispanic immigrant

A parent trying to keep social media in proper perspective for her/his children

An Asian with high SATs, rejected by an Ivy League college which already has enough Asians

A striving woman in a large corporation

The New York Times editorial board after the election

A gay person who has yet to leave the closet

A Sanders acolyte

A parent attempting to interact with the typical urban school leader

A CEO whose job is dependent on his quarterly earnings report

A farmer whose income is importantly driven by the weather

A cab driver with no regular customers

A college student walking into an all-or-nothing final exam

A single parent filling out paperwork in a welfare office

A person shunning the ethic of consumption and attempting to live off the grid

An economist trying to discourse logically about 1%ers, which cut across all demographic lines

 

Or –a writer befuddled by the task of putting down his thoughts in a clearly articulated manner!

Note: Our heroine has a strong heart, accompanied by a mild case of PAC:  premature arrhythmic contraction, basically an occasional extra heartbeat. She has no restrictions on activity, which includes running in 2,000 meter races, and the PAC diagnosis will be revisited in six months. We love her.

 

 

 

 

Frank McTeigue was typically the first one to warm up at the Chatham Senior Center basketball court, working on his inimitable overhead two-hander from the baseline corners.  Knowing these were his favorite spots and his primary shot was an advantage to the defender, but the latter had to have discipline to stay close to Frank. Otherwise, he would be picking the ball up after Frank’s shot went in, as it did a good percentage of the time.

For those unaware of the niceties of basketball, even as played by aging crazies, it is both a contact sport and a reactive one, which in combination can produce inadvertent falls.  During a seemingly normal morning outing in October, Frank tripped over another player’s feet and hit the floor with a tremendous thud to the back of his head.  He wanted to continue playing, but we insisted on him taking a break, after which he joined us as if nothing had happened.

Two days later, Frank complained of a headache and his family took him to Overlook Hospital; at the time it was thought to be simply a precautionary step as years earlier he had experienced a heart attack, after which he was on blood thinner. Unfortunately, the diagnosis was a blood clot in his brain and a difficult operation was immediately required.

Despite the efforts of skilled surgeons and the good subsequent care he received, Frank passed away, at the age of 82.

Frank was a charter member of our band of passionate basketball players. We will miss him greatly.

 

I have had an office in the center of Dover, New Jersey for many years, and I am not great at cleaning, hence the dust. More positively, during that time, without any planning, I have randomly scotch-taped certain sayings to my desk.

Below are some gems of good advice. The taped material is in 14-point bold.    Succinct comments are added; whole essays could be written, but not here.

***

Circumstances and networking: put yourself in situations where the people you meet can be relevant to your future career aspirations.

Talent, perseverance, self-reflection: three of the ingredients of success.

Right message, right messenger: students want to see and hear people like them.

Going to or Going from: the former is more likely to be correlated with positive analysis; applies to colleges, majors, jobs, relationships.

Ask questions, do research, analyze: three more success ingredients.

Be yourself: seems obvious, but often lack of confidence can obscure this advice.

Decide, dedicate, succeed: not surprising that success has multiple ingredients.

To get the real answer, ask why seven times: Japanese proverb about how to learn the “truth” about a situation.

Bring the bad news first, the good news can wait: expeditious action is required for the former; the party for the latter can take place whenever.

The real debate is whether to have data-infused conversations or data-free pontification: good to remember in the age of unfiltered, unedited social media. Mark Twain had it right a long time ago: a lie travels around the world before the truth gets out of bed.

You are entitled to your own opinion. You are not entitled to your own facts. And simply because somebody has the right to do something does not necessarily make it the right thing to do.

 

Since the end of World War II, whenever a Cassandra has warned those who were optimistic, “beware, this time is different,” he or she has ultimately been proven wrong. The on-going growth of the American economy would eventually/inevitably bring logic to the investment process, albeit sometimes after protracted distortions in equity valuations.  And “life as we know it” went on, not to worry.

However, if 2016 does not present a truly different set of parameters, I must be missing something. Below is what undoubtedly constitutes only a partial list of “differences.” There is no attempt to prioritize.

*In the year to June 30, 2015, slightly more non-white babies were born in the United States than white. Demographic projections anyone!

*Not only is financial inequality at levels of nearly a century ago, but the middle class – historically the engine of American economic growth – is being crushed.

*As a high school student over a half-century ago, the conceptualization of the world (i.e. importance in understanding) was seemingly the USA, 70%; Western Europe, 20%, and the rest of the world, shorthanded to ROW, a mere 10%. Now virtually all the real economic growth is in ROW.

*The Federal Reserve is de facto being charged with the responsibility of using monetary policy to spur economic growth. The Fed has pumped out funds like there was no tomorrow (maybe there won’t be) and as if the age-old connection of excess money creation with inflation had been repealed.

*Developed countries are selling debt with negative interest rates. Huh!

*America’s racial divide shows no signs of being healed (whoops, that is not a “difference”), and racism/anti-immigrant sentiment is rising in the same Western European countries which prided themselves on inclusion.

*The American presidential campaign! Never seen one like it.

*Suicide rates are rising domestically for every cohort except geezers like the writer, where the rate was already higher than elsewhere.

*The environment is being destroyed; ho hum, that’s a subject for the future. Agreements now, maybe implementation later.

*The statistical combination of unemployment (not employment), inflation, dissatisfaction levels, bond yields and monetary expansion is unprecedented.

*We produce record levels of food, much of it in a cruel fashion, and an absurd amount is wasted. 

*There are now more non-religion adherents than those enrolled in a religion.  Correction, there is a religion which unites all Americans: consumerism.

*The daily violence worldwide defies easy analysis and understanding, making one – bad joke coming — yearn — for the old days of good guys (Americans) versus bad guys (the Commies).  As for gun control, forgettaboutit; alas, another non-difference.

*On the foreign front (as if it were truly separate from domestic issues),

• Great Britain inexplicably decides it does not want to be in an economic combine where it had its cake (trade and its role as a financial center) and could eat it too (have its own currency).
• Russia’s well-known disregard of world opinion is again exemplified in its doping scandal, the latest chapter actually (the last non-difference).
• China’s growth rate has gone from astronomical to only good faster than its state-controlled accountants can manufacture the numbers.
• In five years, Istanbul goes from a city I recommended to everybody to one which is a center of chaos.
• In an even shorter period of time, Brazil transitions from the golden country of South America – continuous high growth plus big sporting events on the calendar – to one characterized by political, economic, and physical sickness.

Nitpickers undoubtedly can point to a few items above which might be characterized as cyclical and not indicative of structural change. More interesting though is that different critics would select different entries, which proves the point: the preponderance of evidence is that this time is different.

What does all this mean for an equity investor? Damned if I know. Right now, the United States is “the best house in a bad neighborhood.” Elasticity of price-earnings ratios historically has proven to have few definable limits, even when the starting point for valuations is a relatively high level, as is true today.

Full disclosure: I have an equity exposure of 40%, almost entirely in high grade, globally important companies. If and when people equate “this time (really) is different” with a bubble-bursting hit to the stock market of 25%, the level of pain should be tolerable.  I think.

 

Maybe these comments or actions would be better left unsaid or undone:

*Lamenting Income inequality while wearing a Nike hat.

*White middle-schoolers singing an African-American spiritual.

*Expecting a surprise.

*Meeting at Starbucks to discuss protesting white power.

*Using your iPhone to call friends about opposing the building of a cell tower in your neighborhood.

*Sneering at McDonald’s while eating at a restaurant which is not required to post its nutrition data.

*Moving to a house in a “better school” district and then criticizing urban charter school results because the latter’s parents are motivated.

*Crying about the plight of the poor and then preventing a WalMart or a Dollar Store from opening nearby.

*Saying “I Never” –whatever one fills in.

*Extolling environmentalism from your second residence.

 

OLDER WHITE PEOPLE: INCREASINGLY YOUR SOCIAL SECURITY CHECK WILL BE DEPENDENT ON MINORITIES OF WORKING AGE!

 Now that I have your attention, can we talk about — IMMIGRATION REFORM

 Introduction

On any given day, there are millions of people moving around in the United States who are not residents or citizens. Some have unexpired tourist visas, some are here only to work and have the necessary permits, some are under very specific visas aimed at particular needs (e.g., H-1B), and some have special temporary visas (e.g., athletes, performers, students).

Then there are some whose tourist visas have expired and who stayed here anyway. And some who came here without any of the necessary documents.

It should be possible to categorize these last two categories, collectively referred to as “illegal immigrants,” as constituting two primary groups: those who want to achieve legal residency in the USA and those who simply want to work for a stipulated period of time and then return to their home country. It is equally logical to assert that this country should have no obligation to any illegal immigrant who wants neither to be a resident nor to work under the terms available. In other words, those who decline either designation should be deported.

Excluded from the terminology of the above paragraph are those seeking asylum and refugees. In addition, it is not to be construed by use of the term “residency” that the individual in question necessarily intends to live in the USA 365 days.

[The logic in this extended essay is applicable regardless of the pending Supreme Court decision regarding DAPA. From a practical and emotional standpoint, however, if President Obama’s executive order is upheld, it would support the underlying rationale for this plan.]

I am not a politician, nor am I a lawyer. Perhaps the label of “idealist” fits, or even “dreamer.” Simply put, I have interacted with countless members of the immigrant community over the past twenty-five years and would love to see reform accomplished.

The United States is in a unique position with respect to immigration, and I am not referring to the “give me your poor, you hungry” verbiage. The country is both large, which means there is physical room for newcomers, and it is not enamored with establishing a skill/education point system with respect to deciding which immigrants can enter legally. Nor, whatever the bluster, will it ever build an abortive “mother of all walls” or commit the financial and human resources that would be necessary to apprehend every single person who is here “out of status.”

Whether one considers the immigration actions of the USA as fitting its self-description as being “welcoming” is more of a debate, undoubtedly requiring referees and a limit to alcohol consumption. What is indisputable is that people from other countries consistently want to come here — because their home country does not have enough jobs or has a political/cultural system which limits certain freedoms or is less safe — just as people from elsewhere quite often prefer American dollars to their own currencies.

The result is a set of immigration laws, executive orders, and implementation procedures that would make Kafka proud, so I thought I would attempt a resolution.

The immigration plan outlined below revolves around policies that pertain to money, taxes, and language. Adherence to the requirements would bring certainty of legal status to those who are currently classified as illegal immigrants yet want to demonstrate their commitment to the USA.

I believe that those who are out-of-status would react positively to a system of specificity and clarity, within a reasonable timeframe, that simultaneously requires individuals to make decisions about their future place in America. They would welcome an accompanying end to the current situation of seemingly random enforcement regarding deportation.

With the country demographically evolving within the next quarter-century to one of multiple minorities, it is important to put a bow on a package of sensible immigration reforms and move on to the numerous more substantive issues on the nation’s to-do list.  

The Plan

There are undoubtedly different attitudes among illegal/undocumented/out-of-status immigrants about becoming American citizens, although the current political environment is prompting more green card-holders to seek naturalization. At the same time, there is no disputing the observation that every person carrying a pejorative label would like to end the uncertainty and fear, particularly concerning deportation, associated with the shadow life they are typically leading. Becoming a resident would suffice; citizenship is secondary.

While I have not conducted a professional poll of the 11 million immigrants caught in the web they and we have created, I still have confidence in this conclusion: if each head of a defined household filing unit had the opportunity, as the saying goes, to beg, borrow or steal (just kidding on the latter) $10,000 in order to receive green cards, in a completely predictable fashion, for himself and up to 6 additional members of that household, they would do the deal.

Putting aside concerns over their perception of the trustworthiness of our government apparatus, illegal immigrants would come forward under this plan and be eager to resolve their situation. They would self-declare: “we want to be residents” or “we are only here to work.”

Let’s call the document that would be created to bridge the gap between the current predicament and becoming a green card-holder an Extended Year Visa (EYV). If the work route is chosen, the permit is a separate document not connected at all to the EYV. It is here labeled “WP.”

These would be the requirements:

1. A household is defined as a filing unit, with a singular head of the household. Besides himself, the head has a maximum of 6 additional slots for other individuals, who do not need to be connected biologically to him. He pays the $10,000 referenced above. The slots can be filled either immediately or in the future; in all cases, however, the names of the individuals must be filled in at the time of filing for an EYV. If within the filing unit, there are individuals 18 or older, they are subject to the same income tax return and English language requirements, to be spelled out below, as the head of household.

If only a total of 3 slots are taken, the fee is reduced to $5,000, but there cannot be any additions to that household filing unit in the future.

If a head of household filing unit seeks additional slots, he cannot. There must be a second head of household designated. That individual pays the fee, either $5,000 or $10,000, dependent on the number of slots. He is subject to the same head of household rules as the initial head of household.

2. Children could be those here already or those expected to come, keeping in mind that the names must be filled in at the time of filing for an EYV. Any individual at least 18 years old can designate himself as a head of a household filing unit, at which time he receives the 6 additional slots. He must fill in those slots with specific names and he must abide by the rules of an EYV.

3. The holder of an EYV will have three years to apply for a green card.

4. Each person in the household who earned money from a job must file an income tax return for 2015 and must commit to filing that return on an annual basis. Three years of tax return filings are required for the EYV holder to apply for a green card. Filing an income tax return is a sign that the individual wants to “invest” in being in the United States. Failure to file means the person would be deported.

5. When the EYV is submitted for conversion to a green card, the applicant must pass a test of rudimentary Transactional English. Failure on this test means an automatic re-test three months later. Failure on a third try three months later means deportation.  Learning a minimal amount of English is an indication that an immigrant wants to “invest” in being in the United States. The test would include three questions each pertaining to driving, government, police, store, taxes, and school, a total of 18. Passing would be 13. Note that the citizenship test at present is a mixture of verbal (correct answers for 6 of 10) and reading/writing (satisfactory response to one of three questions each).

6. Beginning in 2022, there would be no family reunification provisions in immigration law as there would have been sufficient time to comply with the rules of the EYV and its implications for households. Transition time is needed because it is quite common for families to come to the United States in stages, e.g., the father comes and finds work, then sends for his wife. The children, if any, may also come at different times, depending on financial factors and the existence of an adult who is performing the function of in locos parentis. Note that under the EYV, there is a one-time election with respect to a person aged 18 or higher; that individual must either be considered a head of household or be on the list for a different head of household. (Or they could elect the WP route.)
7. Beginning in 2022, a mother would have to be physically in the United States for at least three years for her newborn child to be an American citizen at birth. Relative to the benefits accruing to being a citizen, the three-year commitment (from entry into the country to the date of birth) is rather modest. Births to illegal immigrants in 2013 were 295,000, a rate which is the same as that of 2001 and which compares with a peak of 370,000 in 2006 and 2007 (Pew Research). There are an estimated 4.5 million American children who have benefitted from the current constitutional protection.

8. Holders of an EYV must purchase auto insurance if they have a driver’s license. Driving without a license would make a person subject to deportation. EVY-holders would receive a dated EYV work permit for three years.

9. Effective 1/1/22, there would be an EYV-WP for new adult immigrants, a phenomenon that cannot and should not be discouraged. The American economic engine remains  alluring to people from countries with unemployment rates that are a multiple of those here. The EYV would be available after three years of income tax filings and a passing score on the Transactional English test. Note: current illegal immigrants receive an EYV immediately and have three years to get their green card. New immigrants have an EYV-WP for three years to prove their commitment, which then triggers a three-year EYV period to actually receive a green card.

During this period, from the moment they enter the country, they must have a dated work permit. They must get a driver’s license if they intend to drive at any time. They must purchase auto insurance. If they do not do these things any time during their six-year period between entry to the country and receipt of a green card, they are subject to immediate deportation. The cost of an EYV for new arrivals is the same as that pertaining to current EYV holders.

10. For the immigrant who is only interested in working here, not in getting a green card, the requirement is a dated WP, renewable annually (akin to the H-2B Guest Worker visa). If they seek to drive, they must get a driver’s license, which they are eligible for, and auto insurance, if they have a car. A person overstaying his WP, or otherwise violating its requirements, is immediately subject to deportation.

It is in the country’s self-interest to have individuals in the WP category; at the same time, it would be advantageous if many of them converted to resident status. Such a move would make current laws mandating K-12 education and access to public services more in synch with the intentions of said individuals and their families. It is awkward for all concerned, excepting those who are unattached males or females (admittedly an important percentage of WP-holders), to go through the annual WP process, which requires a return for a stipulated period of time to the individual’s home country. Many, perhaps half, of all immigrants initially come with a working mentality, i.e. make and remit some meaningful money and return to the home country. In time, many of these same people get accustomed to the American life and switch to a desire for residency.

11. Existing visa programs like the H-1B and EB-5 (discussed later) would be folded into the EYV system. With respect to student visas, on expiration, the student could only remain in the country under either an EYV (either directly as a head of household or as a member of an EYV household) or a WP. In addition, it will not be necessary for schools to end-run the H-1B visa rules when they set up on-campus entrepreneurial endeavors; CUNY recently announced that it is taking advantage of an exemption on the H-1B cap for non-profit institutions to attract immigrant entrepreneurs.

The cap for H-1B visas is 65,000 annually plus 20,000 reserved for those with advanced degrees. The application window opened on April 1 and was closed within  week one.

12. In place of the current immigration limits by country, the future limitations will be labeled: Asia, Central and South America (inclusive of Cuba, whose special immigration privilege – residency is automatic after one year on American soil– should be ended with the opening up of that country that is taking place), Europe, Africa, and other.

There will be a maximum of 1.7 million (equal to the fiscal 2015 immigrant total) new EYV-WP documents issued yearly beginning in 2022; the above regions will have the same percentage of that number as they have had during the cumulative period of 2006-2015. Included therein are those in the asylum or refugee category (note that the murder rate in Honduras is a dozen times that of the USA).

Beginning in 2016-17, the limit on those electing the WP designation is two million annually. Keep in mind that the USA has 320 million people; i.e., the above numbers are not large relatively.

These absolute numbers are in the context of the USA needing to get its house in order, i.e., to have a defined, cohesive approach to immigration and how newcomers are melded (or not) into the fabric of their new “home country.”

13. It should go without saying, but any illegal immigrant (which is to be defined as a person who declines both the EYV and a WP) who has been convicted of a felony is subject to immediate deportation; any felon attempting to enter the United States in the future will be sent back immediately, as will anybody harboring the fugitive.

14. Within the EYV or WP period, the holder is allowed to change his mind – once. Note that a person changing from an EYV may create adverse ripple effects on those on his or her original covered list of an additional 6 people. Presumably he would only make that change if a different individual were able to be the head of household. For the person changing his mind, there is no return of monies previously paid to the government. The new head of household is not required to put up $10,000, but he also cannot change any of the names on the list, nor can he add a replacement name.

15. It is recognized that as EYV and WP are unrolled, over time, there will be a need for adjustments – such an expectation is not a substantive reason for not moving ahead on the EYV and WP approach.  Better to have a good approach to 80% of a situation than to wait on that magical day when somebody has an answer to 100% of the challenges.

16. There are a projected three million heads of households, admittedly a large number for the bureaucracy to process, but under the EYV/WP plan, efficiency and effectiveness would both be increased. Staffers would be doing the right things instead of, at present, “simply” doing things right (in their view anyway). Regardless of temporary incremental staffing costs, over time, the net cost (total costs minus revenues from the plan) would not be any greater than it is at present.  Actually, on a ten-year average calculation, I think it would be much less.

Supporting Information: Some History

• President Obama has instructed ICE prosecutors to use discretion in their handling of undocumented individuals, first through DACA (begun in 2012, it is functioning smoothly apparently) and then through an executive order (labeled DAPA) which is being reviewed by the Supreme Court. DACA-protected individuals, on the record, have obtained better jobs, driver’s licenses, credit cards – some of the key characteristics of a person committing to this country. Over 500,000 young people have DACA protection.

DAPA would make 3.9 million individuals eligible for protection from deportation; some 1.5 million are currently eligible under DACA or Temporary Protected Status. This leaves 5.8 million ineligible, according to Pew Research. The skew therein is toward single men, 2.1 million; presumably many of these would be attracted to the WP route.

As a further wrinkle, international students (a classification that some colleges apply to undocumented students living in the USA) who are pursuing degrees in the STEM disciplines are now permitted to stay in the USA for three years of on-the-job training after they have received their college diploma. This provision, another Obama initiative, is basically to create a window for the affected individuals to pursue some type of visa, assisted by the Silicon Valley tech companies.

The EYV/WP plan supersedes DACA and DAPA and all immigration-related executive orders, both in fairness and clarity of outcome. As stated at the outset, if the Supreme Court upholds DAPA, the real world significance is consistent with the logic of this plan.

• It is not analytically useful to pull out the assimilation patterns of prior waves of immigration, which is something anti-reformers attempt under the lament of “why can’t they do it the right way, like prior generations did.” With economical jet travel, e-mail, smartphones, and multiple television channels bringing in programming from the “home country,” immigrants are able to stay connected in ways that were never feasible before.

Perhaps a generation or two hence, the response will become more clear, but at present, one does not know the meaning of “home country” without further elaboration.

 While it would be nice to reach back and show how many illegal immigrants already have made commitments to being in the USA, it is not practical. They were taking their actions based on a set of laws different from what is outlined herein. Think of this plan as a clearing of the decks, a starting over, with much reduced bureaucratic agita.

 There is a precedent for selling visas and green cards. Under the EB-5 visa program, a foreign investor gets a green card if he puts at least $500,000 into a project in the USA that creates ten jobs in an area where unemployment is 150% or more of the average. In 2015, there were 17,000+ applications for the 10,000 annual slots. Reflecting the anxiety felt by many affluent people about the sustainability of their fortunes in the face of local political turmoil, more foreign investors (80% are Chinese) have been taking advantage of EB-5, helped by American officials willing to draw maps to create the necessary unemployment number. Similarly, aggressive real estate developers have used the EB-5 program in their financial planning.

Why should affluent people have still another advantage; they have enough already. The EYV-WP plan would be hugely more inclusive, to the benefit of all.

Supporting Information:  A Few Data Points

• Of the 11 million illegals, an estimated 3 million are due to receive their green cards within three years and another 3 million after that – often the “after” is many, many years. Coincidentally, these applicants will have paid $10,000 in cumulative fees while continuously being in an uncertain state of limbo. The low level of visibility and certainty (non-existent actually) associated with the current process does nothing to negate the perpetual fear of deportation, which affects approximately 400,000 people per year.

• There are fewer illegal immigrants today than in 2007, when the number peaked at 12 million, after it had jumped from 3.5 million in 1990. One reason is the improvement in the Mexican economy; Mexicans represent about half of all illegals (who, in turn, are about 28% of the 41 million foreign-born residents of the USA) and there is no longer any net inflow from that country (the gross number is down as well, and the majority of the inflow to the USA is for family reunification purposes).

In 2015, there were fewer than 200,000 Mexicans apprehended at the border, far off the peak of 1.6 million in 2000. If one traces the economic cycle of the USA, particularly that of housing construction, the Mexican numbers become understandable.

In a different way, Mexico is key to illegal immigration as it is the route for those coming from El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala. According to the Pew Research Center, deportations by Mexico have more than doubled in the past four years.

• Over half of current illegal immigrants reportedly have overstayed conventional tourist visas. This is an important source of the uproar over “not playing by the rules,” which then leads to the “amnesty” bogeyman. Under the plan outlined here, not playing by the EYV and WP rules means automatic subjection to deportation: no ifs, ands, or buts.

• In the government year ended September 30, 2015, of the 45 million arrivals to the United States who came by air or sea, less than 1% overstayed their visas. This does not contradict the estimate that 40% of illegal immigrants have overstayed visas as this number is cumulative from decades of travelers. Note that in 2015, there were another 110 million land arrivals requiring no visas.

• There are 8.8 million legal residents eligible to naturalize. Of these, 2.7 million are Mexican. According to Pew Research, only one-third of eligible Mexicans historically have opted to become citizens, half the rate of all immigrants. For the record, Mexican immigration is now a net zero; it is China and India which are the leaders in sending people to the land of opportunity.

• As a reminder, sheer practicality is an issue when it comes to the question of how to deal with illegal immigrants; there is no way to back up the 747s and fill them with “illegals.” Nor is there any way to construct a foolproof border barrier/staffed 24/7 without draining economic resources from uses which are more pressing for unemployed Americans. An independent analysis, clearly by somebody with a great deal of time on his hands, pegged the cost of evicting the country of 11 million people at $400 billion (more agents, more planes, more detention facilities), with a $1 trillion impact on the economy.

• For all the trash talking about “America is not the way it used to be,” those renouncing their citizenship number less than 4,000 annually, in stark contrast to the number becoming citizens, over 650,000.

Supporting Information: Education Impact

• It is no secret that the absence of documentation is a major inhibitor of educational aspiration. Over the years, this question has been posed to students affected by the dilemma of not having the resident status which would enable them to receive federal financial aid, thus increasing their access to college.

“If a freshman in high school learns for the first time that he or she is undocumented,       with all that means with respect to making the commitment to higher education, out of    ten students, how many (1) continue to work hard nonetheless, (2) give up completely,      or (3) continue to have the same attitude as       that of many documented friends: exert     themselves in classes they care about and blow off the others.

The clustered results of this informal survey are as follows: two young people will stay    positive and proactive in pursuing further education, three will lose any hope and give up,             and five are in the “whatever” classification.

Looking at the demographic changes taking place in the USA, specifically the evolution to multiple minorities, America must institute changes in immigration laws which would             shift these survey responses toward the pursuit of higher education.

• By law, K-12 schools cannot ask students about their documentation status. The inadvertent outcome is that the subject of documentation as it relates to the pursuit of higher education becomes a combination of ignorance by teachers/counselors/staff and hush-hush conversations with those who are sympathetic to the affected students and in a position to somehow help. With a known road to resident status, the above legal restriction should be lifted, facilitating an improved, more open conversation.  In turn, this will mean a more educated, productive citizenry, as is already being demonstrated by those with the DACA designation.

Supporting Information: Societal Aspects

• The word “amnesty” has no real meaning — and there is wider agreement on this assertion than might be thought. For example, a poll of Iowa caucus voters said government spending was the number one issue at 32%, with the economy second at 27%, terrorism third at 25%, and immigration a lowly fourth at 13%.

• California has over 25% of all illegal immigrants. With over half of its total population either immigrants or children of immigrants, it has the most student friendly higher education policies (access, rate, and aid) in the USA, has opened the door to undocumented individuals obtaining professional credentials, and has led the way in access to driver’s licenses. Counterintuitively, Texas has been more open to undocumented students than many states which carry the “liberal” label.

It is likely that an important percentage of illegal Mexican immigrants in California will elect the WP designation.  One indication of where their hearts lie is the $25 billion remitted to Mexico in 2015 (2% of that country’s GDP), most of which came from those working in the USA.

Relevant to the illegal immigrant/crime accusation, in California, foreign-born adults        represent one-third of the population, but only one-sixth of the prison population.

• By clearing the decks of nebulous, uncertain change-of-status cases now on the books, immigration personnel could focus more clearly on the separate category of requests for asylum from political and sexual abuse. Asylum and refugee-seekers would receive an EYV and would count against the overall immigration limitation. At present, there is a 10,000 annual visa limit on cases involving domestic violence against undocumented persons; the backlog of cases to be adjudicated is many years.

• With immigrants no longer in legal limbo, but with a clear path to a specific, legal designation, undocumented women who are currently the subject of abuse by their partners, but understandably reluctant to seek help, would be less likely to stay quiet.

• At present, in the undocumented world, there is an expensive, awkward, rife-with- potential-for-misunderstandings situation called “business marriages.” This plan would put a large dent in the logic for these liasons.

• The role of “coyotes” used by those crossing into the USA without documentation would be severely reduced, which is all to the good – they are equally expensive and much more directly dangerous.

• Recent studies have show that bilingual students have better social skills, which can enhance their ability to think critically in their careers. The latter will most likely evolve in a fashion that prizes those who are bilingual and bicultural.

Supporting Information: Macroeconomic Issues

• To return to the tease presented at the top of this essay, older white people in the USA increasingly will need younger non-white people economically. In 1980, the overall population over 65 years of age was one-fifth of those ages 20-64. It is projected to be two-fifths by 2035. Putting it another way, the future working person will be financially responsible for twice the number of retirees of a generation ago.

By the year 2023, below the age of 30, whites will represent less than half of the population; from now until 2030, there will be an estimated decline of 12 million whites of working age.  (Western Europe and Japan are in even more difficult shape from the standpoint of pension obligations and numbers of people in the working age category.) These numbers underscore the absolute need for pumping the economic engine, which in turn requires immigration reform.

• The broader picture on demographics is quite interesting, and relevant to the issue of immigration. Some 25% of the world’s population (20% in the USA) is 10-24 years of age, but they mostly live in developing countries. For example, Nigeria has a median age of 18 and India’s is 27; in contrast, that of the USA is 37 and that of Germany is 46. To make the economics work in the latter countries and their peers, they require more of what the former nations have in excess supply, young people. Hence the need for logical policies on immigration.

• The expectation in the USA is that the labor participation rate (civilians, over 16 years of age, working or looking for work), which is now 63% versus 66% twenty years ago, will continue to decline, reflecting the aging population and the disposition of young people to work less. Still another argument for immigration reform.

• In many companies, especially those in the industrial sector, there is an important age gap between older, close to retirement employees and much younger colleagues. If the prior group expects their social security checks to be unaffected, they need more of the “youngsters” working. Given the demographic changes taking place, this means more educated minorities are required, which in turn means the access to government financial aid that can only come with legal status. As things stand now with respect to demographics and educational attainment, by the year 2020, college enrollments will be trending downward, which is not a favorable outlook for the economy overall.

• If you are thinking that white employment levels will recover, think about these data from prize-winning author Charles Murray. His data set was white men in their 30s and 40s with working class jobs or no occupation and no more than a high school diploma or GED. In 1970, 95% were in the labor force and 85% were married. In 2010, the comparative figures had declined to 79% and 52%.

• In 1990, there were 17-18 million manufacturing jobs in the USA, paying a median real gross wage of approximately $800 per week. Now there are 12-13 million such jobs, and the pay has not changed. These jobs disappeared in part because of globalization in general and the incremental impact of trade agreements; illegal immigrants cannot be blamed for the loss of jobs per se.

• The fact that there are more job openings in this country than there are unemployed people is partly a function of large numbers of immigrants not being allowed to work up to their capabilities because of status problems.  It is not a stretch to say that without more sensible immigration policies, economic growth in this country will be so low that all government financial commitments will be up for question.  The incremental funding that is already required at the K-12 level, where education must be delivered without any reference to documentation, requires higher education or the development of a marketable skill for society to recoup its K-12 education investment.

 Supporting Information: Microeconomic Inputs

• Dueling research studies have failed to identify any significant impact on existing wages from the availability of illegal immigrants. The real issues are different. Having said this, there is an exception. When Arizona (2008) mandated employers use the Federal E-Verify system to see if an employee had a bona fide social security number and (2010) implemented other anti-illegal immigrant measures, it saw a 40% drop in the number of said immigrants and wages did rise for resident workers. Admittedly, one of the unintended consequences of mandated higher minimum wages could be an economic opening for undercutting by those seeking only to work in the USA. Tougher penalties for non-abiding employers should alleviate this possibility.

• Unemployed white middle managers whose jobs are never coming back are not going to schlep to the Workforce Training building to learn how to pick apples or pluck chickens. Those jobs almost automatically go to others, who happen to be immigrants in many cases. Without them, inflation in food prices would increase significantly

• William Frey of the Brookings Institute has devoted considerable attention to the generation/ethnic gap. Among many other data points, he notes that states which are experiencing sharp increases in minority young people, in the context of a senior citizen component which skews white, are often laggards in child well-being measures, which is certainly grist for the racial theorist mill. He cites Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Tennessee in this regard.

• The unfairness of the present social security situation, wherein illegal immigrants experience paycheck deductions with little hope of eventually collecting the benefits, would be rectified going forward. According to Henry Cisneros and Sol Trujillo, one million new immigrants equals $500 billion more paid into social security over a 25-year period than the amount received. Note that social security is neither insurance nor a contract; the percentages paid in and the amounts paid out are a function of legislation, which means multiple (and changing) economic and political variables are involved.

• An independent study, clearly pro-immigration in motivation, has found that immigrants have started over half of start-up companies in the USA recently valued at $1 billion or more. Unfortunately the study does not distinguish among residents, H-lB visa holders, or undocumented individuals. Nonetheless, the point – the relationship of immigrants to new business endeavors, large or small, is clearly valid.

• According to Pew Research, the median household income of legal immigrants is $52,000, compared with $36,000 for households of illegal immigrants. The overall economy would be lifted if/when the latter household income number rises with greater education and employment opportunities. And there would be less necessity for access to anti-poverty programs.

• In the 2000-2014 period, Latinos reportedly represented half of the increase in home ownership in the USA, which is doubly remarkable considering the extremely large hit to their net worth in the 2007-08 financial debacle.

• Under the EYV/WP plan, immigrants would save money on legal bills, a significant portion of which are from charlatans or incompetents.

• Employers who have abused illegal immigrants, sometimes simply refusing to pay them, would lose their leverage with reform.

Supporting Information: Political Factors

• In addition to the political aspects relevant to every aspect of immigration reform, Republicans have a specific fear. At present, Latinos represent only 12% of eligible voters (same as that of African-Americans). However, millennials—who are likely to become increasingly active on the political front– represent 44% of Latino voters, compared with only 27% of white voters. Most importantly, this is a coming-of-age phenomenon, i.e. is not dependent on immigration reform or future immigration trends. One million Hispanics reach voting age annually.

• According to Pew Hispanic Research, in 1994, only 31% thought that immigrants strengthened the economy, whereas 63% regarded them as burdens. Today, the numbers have flipped: 59% say “strengthen” and only 33% say “burden.”

• Ignoring big differences between Republican and Democrat respondents, overall 75% of those surveyed want to figure out a way to allow undocumented immigrants to remain in the USA; 62% are against an enhanced border wall.

• In 1995, white public high school graduates were 73% of the total; the 2012 number was 57%, and the projection for 2025 is 51%. Minority babies now exceed white; by 2039, minorities will be more than half of the working age population. Anti-immigration spokespeople are right to be fearful – if their true issue is the spectre of an inevitable erosion in white power.

• The border with Mexico extends for 2,000 miles. A survey of those physically closest to the wall indicated they wanted more customs, not border, agents. Interestingly, maybe even counterintuitively, private investors put up $120 million to build the CrossBorderXpress, a land bridge connecting San Diego and the Tijuana International Airport.  They charge $12 per flier, have high tech screening, and apparently a customer-friendly attitude, judging from the reviews thus far.

• The late, lamented Senate approach to immigration reform in 2013 included a ten-year trip to a green card, then three more years for citizenship. It involved fines, fees, and payment of back taxes (not sure how they would have been calculated) in order to gain “probationary legal status.” All reform is destined to be complicated; that criticism was immediately applied to the 2007 bipartisan Kennedy-McCain bill, and then, as always seems to be the case, squabbling broke out along political party lines.

Supporting Information: Anticipated Criticisms

• Some will ask, “what about the issue of rewarding illegal behavior?” What exactly is this reward? Is it that a family is allowed to remain intact, ostensibly a social policy in which Americans believe? Is it that our economy benefits? Is it that future illegal immigrants will be immediately/automatically deported?

Remember too that many illegal immigrants are here because of our contribution to their country’s travails, the most prominent historical examples being the American consumption of drugs imported from Colombia and the fact that the United States long ago simply took a big chunk of Mexico without anything resembling a democratic process. P.S. Overall, if more immigrants are brought into and stimulate incremental growth of the economy, it is existing citizens who are rewarded.

• It goes without saying, but to cross the t’s and dot the i’s, criminals (felony level) would be deported, and the head of household re-defined. Equally true is that a head of household (who could be a solo adult) and anybody else who refuses both the EYV and WP routes should be deported. Those who advocate completely open borders should acknowledge the impracticality of their position. The EYV and WP plan is open enough.

• How to address the issue of implementation of eligibility for the Affordable Care Act (Healthcare.gov) is an important topic, made moreso by the long list of rules and regulations pertinent to that program. There is no question that legal immigrants have benefited from Obamacare.

At present, illegal immigrants represent about 25% of the 30 million people who are uninsured. To the extent that immigration reform means more people in better-paying jobs that provide health insurance, there is a positive impact on a micro basis. Illegal immigrants are currently heavy users of Emergency Rooms as their primary doctors, financially relying on various Charity Care provisions of existing state and local laws.

This adverse situation could be alleviated when legal status enhances the chances of somebody in the family having comprehensive health insurance. How the aggregate of all the changes that would ensue from immigration reform affects the total health bill is impossible to estimate, but it is healthcare that is the issue, not illegal immigrants.

• Because numerous welfare programs require a green card, many illegal immigrants cannot access them. An expected initial increase in use of the system as a result of the EYV-WP plan is a manageable negative, all things considered.

• People who have been caught in the labyrinth of immigration regulations for many years will undoubtedly resent relative newcomers who had nothing going legally but who suddenly have a clear path to legitimacy. It’s true but not a meaningful criticism of the plan; one should not let the perfect be the enemy of the good.

• Perhaps the opponents of today’s immigration dilemma being resolved in this fashion think the recipients would pass on the opportunity to end their status uncertainty and instead, with $10,000 briefly gathered together in their hands, would use the money for other purposes. For example, they might:  buy gifts for their extended family here and elsewhere … make a big down payment on a retirement residence in their “home country” … pay off debts … purchase additional lottery tickets.

Under the proposed plan, given an unprecedented opportunity to achieve legal status for himself and 6 others, if an illegal immigrant head of household did not apply for an EYV  or elect the WP route,  he would be deported. His action would go completely against the objective of keeping a household together. (Presumably, in said household filing unit, there would definitionally be another head of household who would do the right thing!)

Summation

Those who are anti-immigration undoubtedly will find much that is objectionable under the EYV-WP plan. They would also find it quite troublesome to see their grocery and other bills rise materially if 11 million people were shipped out.

Simultaneously, immigration advocates will find certain of the above thoughts unappealing.  I would ask them to cite their recent legislative successes at the federal level—I believe the number is zero. All the action has been through Executive Orders, the life of which is not guaranteed. And when a state has moved ahead on immigration issues, it has been accused of usurping a federal function. In truth, it would be interesting if states did have the right to experiment with different approaches to immigration reform. Maybe this would be a way to get past our all-or-almost-nothing situation when it comes to Congressional legislation.

Immigration law, as always, is an ad hoc mixture of provisions having no basis in a particular set of cultural values or moral precepts. Therefore, the above multi-page set of suggestions should not be attacked because they might seem to some to be crass or calculating or some other non-operative adjective divorced from the reality of documentation challenges.

Collectively, they might even be a practical idea, rooted in a set of specifics that establish clarity on how one achieves legal status –a clarity that removes the threat of deportation, the single most important concern within the immigrant community.

Basically, the plan says to current illegal immigrants: “We want you. We need you. We are not sending you back. Choose one of the designations we are offering. Show us commitment. Think through your family situation. You give us a response; we give you a response. Only those who decline to provide a response are deported. It’s a good deal for everybody.”

Deep thinkers, who presumably are represented within the ranks of both pro and anti-immigration representatives, might regard this essay as akin to reading the typically large and complex menu of a New Jersey diner. However, there is a big caveat: one cannot select a variety of desserts and call it a meal. The set of suggestions, and revisions thereof, must be balanced in order to be palatable to all concerned. 

Food for thought!

Written in the Spring of 2016 (an admission: some of the numbers above might be considered placeholders; my staff is limited you know)

 

GOALBALL: YOU DON’T HAVE TO SEE IT TO BELIEVE IT!

This is an indoor game played with a ball. There are three players to a side, two wings and the center, who is the primary defensive stopper. The objective of the game is for the thrower, who can be any of the three players, to hurl the ball, in a bowling motion which cannot exceed the waist of the thrower, into the net of the opposite team.  The net is five feet high and covers the width of the court.

The ball of goalball is solid, the size of a basketball, but without air pressure. It feels surprisingly heavy; as I held it briefly in a bowling position, I could envision my long-dormant tennis elbow coming back to life after a single game of goalball. Skilled throwers have a portfolio of deliveries, as does a pitcher in baseball: straight, curved, spinning, fast, slow-all with a quick or methodical wind­ up. Their control is amazing. In contrast, when later in the day, I attempted to flip an errant ball up to me with my toe, the ball instead made a vivid impression on my toe, then climbed a neat little arc and landed in the empty garbage can behind me. Only subsequently did I notice that practiced attendees stopped the ball by propping their entire foot up at a 45-degree angle.

Being slow of mind at times, I still did not pay the ball proper respect. When I put my hand in front of a ball headed to the front row of the bleachers, the ball readily overpowered the concept, and another part of my body was left with a memory of the ball which these players routinely fling back and forth along the floor, most typically being stopped only by the body of the other side. I am told that after the game, there is ice and ibuprofen as a regimen for many of the players, and the necessity is readily understandable. On a rare occasion, a more serious drug might be utilized, but the anti-doping rules of the goalball governing body are extremely strict, far tougher than Major League Baseball for instance.

Each player is outfitted with dark glasses, checked by the referee at the beginning of the game and at the start of the second half.  The referee calls out-of-bounds with a confidence far above his or her peers in any other sport; nonetheless, this does not prevent some players seeking to prevent a goal from sliding so vigorously, because the call has not yet been made, that they crash into the stands, which to be sure are not populated with any celebrities who might have their expensive threads soiled by the sweat of an athlete. When throwing, the hurler typically starts at the goal line, touching the bar as a reference point for the run-up prior to delivering the ball in a bowling motion.

Tape is placed on the basketball court appropriately to cue goalball players as to their positioning. Perhaps that is an innovation which basketball itself could adopt, to enable three-point shooters to never commit the unpardonable sin of being a foot too close to the hoop and thereby reducing the value of their shot by one-third. The court has six sections to it, including a taped line behind which the thrower must release the ball. Halves are seven minutes, except in the semifinals and finals or in international play, when they are ten minutes in duration.  A flip of the coin determines which team gets to choose whether to defend or throw on the game’s initial play.

The defensive movements are balletic, the left and right wings often sliding inward to the court while the critically important center moves in either direction based on her calibration of the ball’s direction, speed, and spin, if any, all of which triggers decisions on when to slide, whether to go completely low or stay relatively high, or in-between. Hockey and soccer goalies go throw a similar thought process. In goalball, the wings are positioned wide and a few feet behind the center’s line in order that they do not crack heads when all three hit the floor simultaneously, which is the normal defensive event.

Many of the goals, which are hard to come by in any event, are scored on bouncers, where the center has not stopped the ball cleanly and completely and it jumps up and over the sliding wingman behind her. If the center is slight of build, and deficient of proper technique, the risk of bouncers, and therefore goals, goes up.

At times, a team will go to the Australian I formation of tennis, with the center behind the thrower. This can backfire, when a quick return, sans wind-up, finds the gap in the defense caused by the out­ of-position thrower. On offense, a double-tap on the floor indicates, “I am ready to throw, give me the darn ball.” It’s a trifle more subtle than the open NBA shooter waving his arms and impatiently demanding the ball from his point guard.

As I watched, I could not help remembering playing in the kitchen of my natal home, more specifically the small rectangular open space adjacent to the table. We were on the floor, sprawling in every direction to prevent the little rubber ball, which we slapped with an open hand, from hitting the wall behind us. My little brother and I were playing our own version of goalball, as did most kids before the advent of video games and a television in every bedroom.

At times, when the action became a little heated, mom had to act the role of referee. Here at the goalball tournament, there are two well-trained referees for each game; they are serious, quick, clear, crisp, concise, communicative, and athletic. There is no show, no preening so that the audience will notice there are referees at work, as there is in the NBA and elsewhere. In fact, the referees assist the players because their “out” calls help the throwers to adjust their deliveries. Numerous volunteers, both on the court and at the officials table, are also involved in making the goalball games run smoothly. As an example, when a ball goes out of bounds, the volunteer returns the ball to play by dropping it on the floor at the feet of the nearest player.

There is a three-minute break at halftime, enough for six 30-second spots if there were any advertisers for this unique sport, but absent such commercial intrusion, the time is used to wipe the sweat, get a drink, talk some strategy, and get ready for the return to the court. Periodically, coaches will call quickie time-outs, provide liquid refreshment to the troops and discuss strategy. Shot distribution, and angles thereof, may be charted if staff is available to do so.

The  Women’s Tournament

It was Saturday, April 2, and I am at the Haddon Township High School in Westmont, New Jersey near Cherry Hill to cover the Northeast Regional Goalball Tournament. At 7:55am, the women’s gym is already buzzing with activity, the athletes warming up for the first contest of this round-robin tournament. The uniforms are colorful, the team names innovative (Chaos, Glasa Tsunami, etc.), and the names of the players are sometimes, but not always, stitched on the back. Both throwing and sliding are being practiced, the prospectively injurious effect of the latter being cushioned by kneepads and protective leg gear, somewhat akin to the way certain major league baseball players come armed to the plate. To be more on point, the similarity would be to hockey goalies, and, in fact, some of the gear is identical to that worn in hockey. The lights in the gym are bright and the electronic scoreboard is ready to function, as presumably are the battery of officials at the scorers’ bench.

The Glasa Tsunami team from Illinois breaks from its pregame huddle with the same shout of “defense” which rocks the crowd, in most years anyway, at Madison Square Garden. The Chaos shout is indecipherable, as befits the team name; actually, it is from the allegedly staid city of Kalamazoo, Michigan. After a few minutes of conventional, and hard, throwing, the team’s  number one thrower, Olympian Asya Miller (aka She-Ra), does a 360-degree turn (on the floor,  not in the air ala the NBA’s Vince Carter) and unleashes a viciously spinning, bouncing ball  which almost eludes the sprawling defender, whose save ensures a 0-0 tie at  halftime.

Immediately upon resuming play, there is a penalty called against a Tsunami thrower for releasing her ball above her waist, and the offending team must defend its goal with a lone defender. Miller cleverly goes to the outermost line and throws a totally straight ball, since the defender has lined up in the middle as required; nonetheless, the stop is made, at the last moment, and the crowd, okay the handful of fans, murmurs in appreciation. Turnabout is fair play, and a penalty is called, but this time, the bulky, less athletic Tsunami defender cannot control the little bounce which occurs after her initial stop, and the first goal of the game is registered. A minute later, at full-strength, she commits the same error, and her coach immediately brings in a substitute.  Chaos wins over a tough opponent, 2-0.

It is game two and the tall Colorado Bandit center, Olympian Jeni (Jennifer) Armbruster, after barely two minutes have elapsed, whips a ball down the middle of the court with a ferocity that is unstoppable. Her power belies the fact that she recently was out for a month with shoulder pain, which she believes is a delayed residual of the problems which necessitated shoulder surgery three years ago. Shortly thereafter, a screwball delivery from her wingmate finds its way into the Western Michigan net and the rout is on, the final score being 9-1.

Jeni has been playing goalball for over 15 years, having moved into the sport after playing basketball, as is true of many goalballers. Born in Taiwan to a military family, she gets restless after three years anywhere and is about to move to Canada from the Olympian residential training facility in Colorado Springs. She has her Master’s and will be pursuing a Massage Therapist License. In Michigan, she helped start a group of sports camps; many of the United States team members were trained at those camps, which have been endorsed by the Department of Education and replicated in a dozen states.

There is hope for a more formal feeder system in goalball, from camps like Jeni’s to state to   region to national, so that, as envisioned by the new Goalball President, Kevin Szott (who wants  to be compared with Yankee owner George Steinbrenner), there would be many, many more people competing for the six Olympic team spots. Goalball now is into the regimen of any other athletic endeavor: drills, weightlifting, cardiovascular workouts; stamina must be high to endure the 4-5 games a day which are normal in tournaments. To balance and augment the competitive environment, Goalball is planning to introduce a draft in 2006, enabling less well-stocked teams   to select players from a designated pool of available athletes.

There is also a move afoot to enable coaches to be vocal during play, on the assumption their   sage advice would be helpful to their players, who presumably would listen with both ears,   unlike their counterparts in other sports stocked with millionaire professional athletes.  The  Florida coach, the bright and affable Jim Crozier, is one of those in favor of more   communication, and encourages his players to talk to each other as much as possible. Like many goalball coaches, he backed into his position (his regular job is “orientation and mobility specialist”) and got hooked  even though the hours become long when you are a counselor, father figure, and coach of young players. If I put my compensation on a per-hour basis, it would be about a nickel,”joked Jim.

New Jersey has taken the court against his Florida team. On her first throw, errant though it is, you could see a different skill level; the player is Olympian Lisa Banta, who was an alternate on the national team in 1996, and a full-fledged team member since. Unfortunately, on the return throw, the ball hit her sliding teammate, bounced, struck the sliding Lisa, and continued into the goal. Shortly, there was another penalty situation, and she stepped confidently to her mark and threw a straight fastball to tie the score.  The home court New Jersey fans hooted and hollered,   as they did two minutes later when she scored again. The enthusiasm is unusual, as most of the fans are quiet at all times, as everybody must be during play  itself.

A minute later, another penalty, another goal. Like Duke University basketballers, the blue-clad New Jersyans reach down and touch the floor to mark their defensive positioning. Unlike Duke, they keep both hands down until making a definitive defensive movement. Up 4-1 at halftime, Lisa comes out throwing lefthanded, to save strain on her right shoulder as she is only 75% back from the latest in her series of injuries and rehab efforts. Like any athlete returning to the court,  she may be healed, but is not fully-ready for game competition. Moreover, the team chemistry, with Lisa as leader, has to be relearned. She switches back to righthanded after Florida scores, then back to lefty.  Occasionally, she tosses a very softly-thrown ball as a change of  pace.

With but a second to go in the contest, Florida ties the score at 4-4 and the unrestrained Crozier, leaps in jubilation; there is a busload of Floridians, as they have both a women’s and men’s team in the tournament, so there is much joy in the stands over this remarkable comeback by the only all- high school squad in the tournament. Lisa slams the floor in frustration, which is heightened    when she fails to get off a final shot (or she was irritated because she could have held the earlier ball longer, to the limit of the 10-second shot clock, which would have deprived Florida of time for their final throw).  Her open mouth  reveals  a red, white, and blue guard for her teeth.

Between games, Lisa is chewing on an energy bar, or is she stewing over the blown lead versus Florida. Itis difficult to tell from her expressionless face, a stark contrast from the perpetual smiles and chatter among the Florida contingent of 27 players, who are from a school where 89% of the graduates go on to college. Excluding this, the audience remains quiet, with cell phones turned off and but a solitary photographer, who takes pictures very selectively.

Starting its second game, the Chaos’ chant has a refrain, “you can’t handle it”. Asya promptly opens the game with a quick goal. She is given a chance a chance to pad what had become a 3-0 lead when a player on the opposing team, from Minnesota, committed a violation by throwing three consecutive times (no feeding the hot man in this sport). Her throw was out-of­ bounds before it even crossed half-court, an uncharacteristic miscue by the tattooed (barbed  wire and cross) Miller.  The final is 5-0, Chaos.

In two games, the Chaos center, Olympian Nicky (Nicole) Buck seemingly has not missed a ball at her defensive center position. Her technique of promptly folding her body over the ball, instead of rigidly providing a ramp that the ball can come up and over, has been flawless. I am told she also has exceptional hearing, but whether this is physical or a function of proper positioning and concentration, is unknown. In talking with her, she corrected my observation about her not missing a ball, in fact, one had eluded her but it had been covered by one of her wings. “That’s my job” (i.e., to stop the throw), which she did with exuberance and great skill, as befits the name on her uniform, Wonderwoman. She constantly called out information for her wings; away from the game, she talked with everybody, at all times, even to the point of being asked by the referee to pipe down on the sidelines.  In the Fall, Nicky, who at 20 years of age has been playing goalball for six years,  will return to Western Michigan University  from Colorado Springs. The third member of Chaos, Susie, is cute as a button, with beautiful braided hair and a sunshine disposition.  Her throwing strength is nonexistent, but this deficiency is  offset by a fearless attitude toward  defending her corner of the goal from her wing position.

When a player on the sidelines doffs her sweaty jersey to reveal a simple black sports bra underneath, there is no peer or crowd reaction, no Nike representative waving a checkbook. She simply replaces her game jersey with a dry version, then with equal aplomb outfits her dog with the harness he had worn to the  tournament.

Colorado opens its second game, against Florida, with a hard throw from Armbruster which not only gets into the goal but also dislodges a piece of tape which is helping to hold the net in place. With seconds to go in the first half, she scores on a completely opposite shot, a soft ball which was easily stoppable except all three defenders had been faked out and there were no bodies in front of the throw. In the second half,Jeni scores on a left-handed  bouncer.  In none of these  cases does Jeni reveal any emotion.  Colorado wins handily, 7-1.

In Lisa’s second game, versus Tsunami, New Jersey again starts behind, giving up an avoidable goal almost immediately. Shortly thereafter, the coach (who is not allowed to yell out suggestions during play) calls a time-out to talk with her threesome, which does not help as another goal is registered against them as soon as play is resumed. Two more center-deflected bouncer goals and New Jersey is hopelessly behind at 4-0. To add insult to injury, after Lisa moved to center from wing, she is called for a penalty and can not stop the ensuing shot.  Tsunami wins   6-1.

In Lisa’s last game of the day, versus Western Michigan, she came out firing, all right-handed , as New Jersey needed a win and a lot of goals, both necessary to overcome the first game late collapse against Florida which had produced a round-robin tie standing between the two. New Jersey was aided considerably by an officially-mandated equipment change for the opponent’s center, which removed an important and unfair advantage the young woman had enjoyed in her prior games.  Lisa first scored on a complete crosscourt shot, the ball just  barely squeezing into  the corner of the net, then fired in a straight one.  The score was quickly Lisa 5, Western  Michigan 0. At the end, the team Florida had beaten 4-1 succumbed to New Jersey 9-0, putting  the latter into the semifinals with Tsunami, Colorado, and   Chaos.

Like her fellow Olympians, Lisa is moving out of Colorado Springs to seek a different environment. In this case, she will go to Tuscon tobe near her boyfriend, Jake, an enthusiastic   and likable guy who is totally into the Goalball scene and wants to get a Master’s in Special Education from the University of Arizona. There, Lisa will continue her four hours/day workout routine, with basketball, one of her favorite sports, thrown in as a break activity. This is an   athlete who, when her ACL blew out, did her lifting and hand bike riding while supported by crutches. In Arizona, Lisa will also seek to put to good use her Bachelor’s in Criminal Justice; ideally she would be “working with young people before bad decisions are made because they are oblivious to the opportunities available to them.”

Unlike many athletes whose names are in front of us every day on ESPN, Lisa wants to make a real difference in the lives of others. Perhaps here, she is following in the footsteps of her mother, who successfully fought for Lisa’s rights in the school system in Boonton, New Jersey, an experience which Lisa looks back upon with fond memories.  She believes that sometimes mothers of her peers are overly protective, not wanting their children to get hurt.  What happens is that they get deprived of the joys  of participating in sports and being supported by  newfound friends who face the same challenges.

Meanwhile, Olympian teammate Asya Miller is preparing for the last game of day one by  listening and moving to the tunes on her I-Pod. The crowd for the goalball match-up would fit in one end row of the NCAA Basketball Final Four taking place at the same time in St. Louis, but  the family camaraderie is comparable with anything demonstrated in the latter. There is also a steady stream of boys/young men wandering in from their court, which at this school is downstairs, and the girls/young women  gravitate in their direction, or is it vice-versa.  They  laugh and flirt and talk about past games and future match-ups and jostle  their friends so they   can take a seat in the first row to absorb the action taking place on the court. A couple of the contestants have brought their pet dogs to the game; the latter are incredibly well-behaved, seemingly totally devoted to their owners.

In this preliminary round-robin version of the championship game, which would be between Colorado and Chaos as the oddsmakers had predicted based on the last several years of these two teams alternating in winning the national title, Asya’s bullet  breaks the unsurprising scoreless tie with thirty seconds left before intermission.. In the second half, Chaos scores, and its 2-0 lead stands until 1:39 is left, when Asya is called for a high ball (release above the waist) and cannot block the ensuing straight throw, delivered with a fancy wind-up by Jeni. With 26 seconds left, Colorado calls a time-out to set up its final plays. To no avail, as at 0:13, Asya throws a bouncing crosscourt shot that finds the net for a 3-1Chaos win. She pumps her fist in triumph, then removes her black skull cap, which nicely matches her bandana and sneakers, to reveal bleached blonde hair.

The Women’s Final Four

It says 8am on the Sunday morning clock, but on the bodies, it is 7am, reflecting the overnight loss of an hour. A monsoon has pounded the area, including the steel roof of the gym, with enough water to float a boat. It is the day after the death of Pope Paul II. Nonetheless, everybody is ready to go. It is tip-off time for the Final Four of Goalball, unimpeded by any commercial messages or other media  imperatives.

In the opener, Colorado systematically beats Tsunami 2-0 on an Armbruster penalty shot and an own goal. Inthe second semifinal, Chaos goes up 3-0 on New Jersey in the first half and   promptly removes Asya to rest her arm for the anticipated  championship game.  She never has   to return  as Chaos easily triumphs,  5-1.

It is, as anticipated, Colorado versus  Chaos for the Goalball Regional  Championship.

The Chaos cheer, as the players  break from their pregame huddle, mentions every team member by name and then adds, for all, in case anybody had  forgotten  their challenge, “you  can’t handle it.” As they go to their positions, Nicky implores her teammates, “no freebies!

Nicky, who normally could talk to a lamppost, had become relatively quiet before the ultimate game, and as the contest began, she was more serious than at any time during the tournament.   The always quiet Susie showed her own form of concentration with a demure, but negative, hand gesture after a throw of hers was called out almost as it left her hand. When Asya was about to take her third consecutive throw, which as noted is not allowed, Nicky loudly called her off, saving a penalty shot which would probably have resulted in an Armbruster goal for Colorado. Repeatedly, Nicky’s forceful sliding stops took her into the vicinity of first-row fans. When Susie saved balls which were wide into the corner, an area which the center has difficulty covering, Nicky  told her, “you  are the Queen!”

Jeni attempted some quick throws, hoping to catch Nicky, Asya, and Susie out of position, but the trio stopped them all. A single goal by the always dangerous Asya was the only scoring as the game wound down. With 0:44 remaining, Colorado called a time-out to set up a play; after it failed, another time-out was called at 0:31. Finally, at 0:18, Colorado made a substitution, its third stoppage of the clock. With seconds left, Chaos rolled a slow ball, and time expired as it made its journey down the court. Chaos again were the Champions.

The Men’s Championship

When I arrived after the conclusion of the women’s tournament, the teams from New Jersey and Florida had just finished regulation time tied at 3-3. The first three-minute sudden death session produced no goals, but a vivid awareness that the men threw significantly harder and covered more of the court with their larger bodies, which they also position more into the court to cut down on the available angles to the throwers . Acrobatic 360-degree shots were common. They also switched positions more readily, attempting to create sudden mismatches, where maybe a hard, spinning ball would be unplayable by the other side.

With 15 seconds left, a bouncing ball goes up and over, rather than into, the New Jersey goal, and half the gym is able to resume breathing.  Still 3-3.

Toward the end of the second three-minute sudden death session, it remained 3-3 as New Jersey called time-out at 0:10. A well-designed play proved fruitless, and now it was Florida’s turn to call time-out, at 0.3.6″, but its play was thwarted as well.

On to the shoot-out, where each of four players (the three already on the court plus one substitute) has a chance to score against a single defender. Florida’s top thrower bombed in a shot right off the bat to make it 4-3, and the Sunshine State contingent went crazy. New Jersey failed in its attempt to match, and repeated that lack of success with its second and third throwers. Now it was up to its substitute, a young-looking, clean-shaven kid last seen flirting in the stands with one of the high school student volunteers.  The chants of the New Jerseyans are matched by the chants of the Floridians.

Super Sub throws, and scores! New Jersey fans stomp their feet and roar their delight. Now, can he stop the last Florida throw and preserve the 4-4 tie.  He does!

Itis on to the sudden death shoot-out; the first team in a one-on-one competition to score wins. The New Jersey thrower looks like a poet refugee from an Irish bar, but when he uncorks his throw, it  is clear he knows what he is doing. Goal! 5-4 for New Jersey. Pandemonium! Now, can the young lad put his body in front of the expected 360-degree bullet from the imposing Floria thrower. Hearts are pounding, including those of first-time observers. He does! Championship to New Jersey! The hero is mobbed by everyone. Alas, the highlight of the men’s goalball championship was not to be seen on ESPN, which is still unaware of this exciting sport.

Chaos and New Jersey-the deserving champions  of the Northeast  Regional Goalball  Tournament.

Author’s Note: I hope from this description of the action involved in the game of goalball, that you, probably a first-time reader of anything relating to goalball, can visualize the action of this athletic endeavor and will want to check it out for yourself and your friends when there is a tournament in your area.

P.S. Did I mention that goalball players are legally blind and that the ball has bells inside it.

 

 

 

 

 

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A COUPLE OF DOZEN WAYS IN WHICH THE EDUCATION SYSTEM IS A FRAUD

Fraud: deceit, trickery, cheating, intentional deception

*The high school graduate should be able to assume that his diploma means he is ready for college, if that is to be his path. Unfortunately, it does not; college readiness is a totally different matter.

*Tons of scholarships are predicated on GPA levels. The latter say nothing about academic rigor.

*Colleges may be accredited, but they can do anything they want to. There is no accountability.

*The cost of college is a shell game; its perpetrators want you to watch the tuition number while elsewhere they are jacking up a long list of fees having little or no basis in identifiable costs.

*Can this marketing approach possibly be credible: “get a Master’s by Tuesday (admittedly a slight exaggeration) and you will instantly have a high-paying job.”

*Sorry about that, the college has oversold its classroom seats. You will be taking this course on-line in your dormitory room.

*The professor is not keen on teaching; he or she would prefer doing their research and writing their books, which they will require in their classes, even when not used.

*The high school, because of budgetary restraints, has to cut back on gym and the creative arts. This restraint does not apply to the football program.

*Let’s keep kids in ESL, even when they could test out. It’s easier for us to not move them.

*These students are uncontrollable; let’s classify them. No need to examine the classroom management  inadequacies of the teacher.

*Okay, sharp eyes; you are right. That three-hour college class is actually not three hours; it is less.

*The message that permeates 92.5% of all high schools is that every single individual must go to college: prima facie deceitful.

*Colleges are proclaiming their desire for more socioeconomic diversity; just ask them and they will tell you. However, if pushed, they will admit that they can only handle a certain number of students requiring big tuition discounts, aka institutional scholarships.

*Colleges encourage their students to be self-reflective, alas a trait lost on colleges themselves as they balloon their cost structures with ever more administrative positions.

*If you want to see a college protect that quaint concept of freedom of speech, try to book a right-of-political-center speaker and see the school’s doors shut and their ideals tabled.

*Unbiased international standards indicate the American education approach is not successful. Therefore, the standards must be rejected.

*Maybe that AP credit earned in high school transfers to the actual prospective college, but the high school cannot be sure, regardless of what it says to the student.

*Ah yes, all public two-year college credits (in New Jersey, e.g.) by law must transfer to all public four-year colleges. No, better to assume a 10% haircut.

*The area of for-profit colleges and their defects has been well plowed.  Suffice it to say that some of the criticism is, uh … fraudulent!

*Colleges now provide cost-of-attendance and net price calculator data. Did these bastions of education do so voluntarily – not remotely.

*And now colleges are crying “you don’t understand” when analysts couple the cost of college, inclusive of debt, with the earning power associated with the major and the degree.

Author’s Notes:

English professors will criticize these observations because there are variations in the writer’s “voice.” Thank goodness people no longer care about writing.

Foreign language teachers may have to consult the archives; once upon a very long time ago, I took Latin and a few words actually stuck. Now if only I had taken a useful language.

Mathematicians may observe that actually there are not two dozen entries above. I can only say that I tried hard and the results felt good to me; isn’t that more important than accuracy.  If readers would send me additional entries about education fraud, maybe the title could match the true count.

 

 

 

Woven throughout these numbers, for the few who care to drill down on their political analysis, are implicitly many of the reasons for the stunning level of support for Presidential candidate Trump. The affluent liberal media and think tank elites of both coasts seem to have completely missed the multiple emotional connections, the angst that is evident in the America they simply fly over.

Median Age: Hispanic, 28 … Black, 33 … Asian, 36 … White 43. For Hispanics born in the USA, median age is 19, slightly less than half of the foreign-born median of 41 (Pew Hispanic Research). The big growth rate for whites is in those over 65 years of age. Of Hispanics under 18, over two-thirds are Mexican. By 2055, Asian immigration will exceed that of Hispanics, who at present are 70% of illegal immigrants.  Millennials and younger among Hispanics are 58% of that population, versus 39% for the white population.

2065E Population: White, 46% … Hispanic, 24% … Asian, 14% … Black, 13%. For approximately every two-parent household, there will be a single-parent household.

2050E Population: 58% workers, 23% kids, 19% elderly. In 2005, the numbers were 63%, 25%, and 12%.

Kindergartners: 53% White, 25% Hispanic, 13% Black, and 9% Other.

Mothers: 54% have a college degree, up from 41% in 1990. The median age for first marriage is 26 (women) and 28 (men), five years later than a generation earlier. The pursuit of higher education and greater opportunities in the workplace are the driving factors for delayed marriages (and motherhood).

Teenage Birth Rate: In 1991, the rate was 61.8 per 1,000 female teenagers; by 2014, the rate had dropped to 24.2 per 1,000. In New Jersey, the recent white rate was 4.8; the black rate, 27.4, and the Hispanic rate, 31.3.

Life Expectancy for the demographic with the greatest longevity: non-Hispanic white women, 81.1 years; non-Hispanic white men, 76.5, both of which declined slightly in 2014. In 1960, the overall expectancy was 69.7, and it rose consistently for fifty years, so any reversal is of interest. Black life expectancy is 75.6 years, compared with 79.0 years for whites; this gap (Pew) is the “smallest in history.” Fewer suicides and homicides, plus reduced fatality rates from cancer and AIDS, are cited as the reasons for the improvement.

Suicide Rates: In the 21^st century, according to the National Center for Health Statistics, every age group except those 75 or older (who already had the highest rate) has demonstrated an increased desire to end their life prematurely. This is true of both men and women, albeit the latter is from a much smaller base than that of men.

Religion: Within fifty years, Christians and Muslims will each have about 30% of worldwide population, reflecting significant growth in the ranks of Muslims.

Income: Both high and low sectors are growing; the middle class, historically the engine behind growth in living standards for Americans, will continue to decline.

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